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3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

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Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#281

Post by matwood »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #164

A year from now, will we look back and say it was worth the suffering for something 5x as bad as the flu? (based on Germany’s numbers, which are more fully accounting for those with mild symptoms) Shows how important testing randomly is, if the denominator is low because you are only testing those in the hospital, it looks like the second coming of the Spanish flu.

Even if we raise the denominator to make the percentages look better, there is no denying that hospitals are being overwhelmed. The flu often already pushed hospitals to the edge, so even only (heh) 5x worse will cause most hospital systems collapse.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#282

Post by chatmasta »

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #99
dragonwriter wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. Sure, just like the Depression did. And just like the Depression, a few years of boom times afterwards and that effect will be negated until the next similar event.

After the depression the US emerged as the global hegemon because of major shifts in power that happened as a part of WWII. The US was uniquely adapted to grow to be the global super power at the same time that European nations were taking a huge hit from the war. I suspect this will ultimately lead to China as the new hegemon. We're seeing key advantages to the Chinese state that the US cannot adapt to. Decades of p…

I’m not sure about this. China is, rightfully, being blamed for the initial outbreak of the virus and their failure to contain it. I think when the dust settles, we’re going to see a rapid decoupling from China as countries look inward to strengthen their domestic supply chains.

I have a hard time seeing China emerging as a winner from this crisis.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#283

Post by mensetmanusman »

matwood wrote: post #281
mensetmanusman wrote: post #164

A year from now, will we look back and say it was worth the suffering for something 5x as bad as the flu? (based on Germany’s numbers, which are more fully accounting for those with mild symptoms) Shows how important testing randomly is, if the denominator is low because you are only testing those in the hospital, it looks like the second coming of the Spanish flu.

Even if we raise the denominator to make the percentages look better, there is no denying that hospitals are being overwhelmed. The flu often already pushed hospitals to the edge, so even only (heh) 5x worse will cause most hospital systems collapse.

Should 1000 people go unemployed to save one person?

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#284

Post by duxup »

cloverich wrote: post #243
duxup wrote: post #17

Semi tangent, about dealing with mass unemployment. I like to think this event changes people's perspective on folks out of work in the US. There's a lot of recrimination, and even self loathing about being poor or out of work in the US. It doesn't seem based in reality and certainly isn't helpful. Perhaps it is time we realize that much like a pandemic things in this world change fast and we need to be able to help…

Frankly we have a formal education system that is actively hostile to training people to do jobs, and instead teaches "fundamentals" and "how to learn". There's tremendous support for those concepts, though I personally consider them bogus. If we truly want cross trained people, the education system is the one that needs to change. Otherwise the funding and time that could be used for jobs training will always be soa…

>and "how to learn"

Honestly I see that as something that isn't taught enough / we have a very structured system that is "here is how you're going to learn it... good luck" that doesn't provide a lot of options.

I do agree with the idea that your traditional 4 year college education system is poorly equipped to help redirect existing workers.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#285

Post by scottLobster »

HappySweeney wrote: post #256
scottLobster wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure if this was your intent, but "sacrificing millions for the sake of the Market" sounds like you're trying to shift away from the point that right now about 3.28 million more folks (probably more) are wondering how to pay their rent/mortgages and feed their children. If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic. But nah, the "mark…

> If this lockdown continues indefinitely the death numbers from the economic fallout will likely eclipse those of the pandemic. Seeing that doing nothing will likely lead to lead to millions of deaths, how would the lockdown possibly kill more than that? Are you under the impression people will just willingly starve to death, or that fighting over food will get so bad that millions of people will die?

First of all the "millions of deaths" comes from one model. There are many others and we haven't tested enough to know the true spread or lethality of the virus in a general population. It's quite possible that many people have already had covid-19 and were completely asymptomatic, which would make the death rate look much less scary. Anyone who tells you with certainty that "millions will die" is going off incomplete data like everyone else at the moment.

And if we locked down the global economy for a year or two until a vaccine is developed, yes it's not out of the realm of possibility that millions worldwide would die a result of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th order consequences of that decision. Look how many stress fractures are occurring after just a few weeks. You think they'll get better with time and continued stress?

Honestly I think the UK had the best original strategy of locking down the people most at risk, make sure they're taken care of as much as possible, and letting everyone else get herd immunity as quick as possible. But people weren't/aren't willing to accept that, and likely still won't for at least the next few weeks.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#286

Post by binarytox1n »

tr33house wrote: post #119
cjslep wrote: post #32

I grew up with the puritanical mindset of: "Your intrinsic worth as a human is the money you earn; because the money you earn is from how hard you work; and how hard you work is a reflection of your intrinsic Virtue." Thus I grew up in a family that loathes the unemployed. I really hope -- though I have grave doubts -- that this event gets through to them, so that they can have some personal growth, too.

I think this is wrongly attributed as puritanical

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Protestant_work_ethic it's well known enough to be a common phrase, with it's own wiki entry.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#287

Post by dubcanada »

driverdan wrote: post #214
Demiurge wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a developer I immediately though of the power of queues. Twenty people trying to submit same form does not work for everyone, but a queue processing one person at a time might allow the twenty people to submit within a short time. It is flattening the curve! If I was contracted to fix this ASAP, I would set up an nginx front-end proxy config that doesn't allow more than X sessions and suggest a time in the future…

Having worked on this type of application in the past they should find a new company to work with if they can't handle this traffic. We were handling hundreds of requests per second with ease 10 years ago. That was with MySQL and the app running on the same server. It doesn't take many resources to show the user a form, validate it, and save to a DB.

A bunch of armchair developers seem to have been summoned to tell the Federal government how to handle form submissions for an extremely security and privacy intense application using their fancy modern techniques.

You are talking about comparing a basic web form with an application for unemployment benefits which must go into a federal tax database and be processed using a what I assume is a garbage mainframe system.

It not only needs to be validated, it needs to securely store records, be able to compare them, and hook up to the system that handles payments, etc.

They can't just circumvent it and dump it into some silly Amazon or MySQL database and call it a day. That would require the employees to basically copy and paste that data into the actual warehouse and considering they have 3+ million to go through as it is making it easy for them to process is just as important as allowing people to submit.

For the time being the correct response is a queue gate.

Stop being silly.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#288

Post by noelsusman »

driverdan wrote: post #214
Demiurge wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a developer I immediately though of the power of queues. Twenty people trying to submit same form does not work for everyone, but a queue processing one person at a time might allow the twenty people to submit within a short time. It is flattening the curve! If I was contracted to fix this ASAP, I would set up an nginx front-end proxy config that doesn't allow more than X sessions and suggest a time in the future…

Having worked on this type of application in the past they should find a new company to work with if they can't handle this traffic. We were handling hundreds of requests per second with ease 10 years ago. That was with MySQL and the app running on the same server. It doesn't take many resources to show the user a form, validate it, and save to a DB.

At this point introducing a new company could cause more problems than it solves, and I think it's understandable to not be prepared for a volume of jobless claims that is almost an order of magnitude more than at any point in US history.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#289

Post by ithinkinstereo »

csomar wrote: post #146

> A week ago, he said he had “a good middle-class job” which paid him $35.50 an hour plus health care and retirement benefits. Now he is struggling to figure out how he’ll pay a $300 electric bill and $1,000 in rent for his townhouse. He also lost his health insurance. You make $35.5/hour in (I suppose?) a stable job but if the work stops for a week, you struggle with a $300 bill? I know some people are living payche…

I went to my local 7-11 a couple of weeks ago to get some cash at the ATM. Next to it was a garbage bin for throwing away your receipt.

Out of curiosity, I went through about a dozen and not a single one had a balance above $1,000. Most were below $500.

There is little financial literacy in this country. Basic lessons about opening a bank account, the difference between checkings and savings, etc. is not something that is taught in K-12 nor in College. Let alone more "advanced" topics like 401Ks and IRAs and investing in the stock market.

Re: 3.28M file for U.S. jobless benefits

#290

Post by bpicolo »

wmeredith wrote: post #147
lordnacho wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a fair discussion to take, but how are you going to run an economy with the health service in permanent overload? That is what would happen if you just let the thing pass. Those charts of "squashing the sombrero" have the number of beds at a very low place compared to the expected hump of cases. On some of them you can barely even see the gap between the red line and the zero line, due to the scale of th…

> in permanent overload It won't be permanent. It will be like a forest fire and kill a lot of people and be horrible, but will eventually die down due to heard immunity.

Doctors have passed from the illness, too. Even young, healthy ones. Stress and lack of sleep hurt the immune system.
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