Italy and South Korea virus outbreaks reveal disparity in deaths and tactics

Post by brokenmachine » Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 4:46 AM UTC

ivanhoe wrote: post #204

tomerico wrote: post #10

Italy has an older population, hence more susceptible to deaths and spreading of the virus: - Average age of death due to Coronavirus in Italy is 82 [1] - In Italy, 3.65% of the population is 80 or older [2]. - In Korea, 1.75% of the population is 80 or older [3] [1] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19... [2] https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2019/ [3] https://www.populationpyramid.net/…

There are also cultural differences, Italians like to hang out in groups, outside, personal space is much smaller, people hug and kiss and touch all the time. Also they're not really the most disciplined nation, lots of them simply ignored the safety rules, continued to go out, there were even some cases where infected people run away from quarantine. And additionally the spread of virus is not uniform as it depends…

Post by kijin » Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 4:51 AM UTC

bane wrote: post #195

tomcooks wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More rigorous tests than Italy, seriously?

South Korea used to be at about the same development index as Italy maybe...20 years ago? Today it's tied with Israel (as of 2018) and above Spain, France, and Italy. The PPP is also about 10% higher than Italy and has about half the unemployment rate. Most importantly it has one of the most advanced healthcare systems in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_quality_o...

Post by mjevans » Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 4:59 AM UTC

kaitai wrote: post #232

3JPLW wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but they've also been able to significantly slow the spread, growing at what looks to be closer to 10% day-over-day (doubling every week). Most everywhere else is seeing 25-35% (doubling every 2-3 days).

These go hand in hand. In the US we cannot slow the spread because we refuse to test anyone who doesn't need acute care or who doesn't have documented contact with travelers or foreign nationals. The research from Helen Chu's lab at University of Washington shows that this means we missed the start of community transmission entirely in Washington. Here, there are health care workers who can't get a test! They deal wi…

Post by kijin » Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 5:04 AM UTC

billfruit wrote: post #249

AlchemistCamp wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Singapore has been competent, but Taiwan's response has been more impressive. It's very close to the hot zone, millions of people travel to and from mainland China every year, it has roughly the population of Australia living on 10% of the land Japan has, the WHO refuses any cooperation, and yet there have been under 50 cases and no local transmission. Not only that, but as a democratic state, Taiwan's control measur…

China reported Covid19 to WHO on 31 Dec 2019, do you say that travel curbs were put in Taiwan in early December?

Post by petre » Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 5:06 AM UTC

T-A wrote: post #26

tomerico wrote: post #10

Italy has an older population, hence more susceptible to deaths and spreading of the virus: - Average age of death due to Coronavirus in Italy is 82 [1] - In Italy, 3.65% of the population is 80 or older [2]. - In Korea, 1.75% of the population is 80 or older [3] [1] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/covid-19... [2] https://www.populationpyramid.net/italy/2019/ [3] https://www.populationpyramid.net/…

3.65% / 1.75% ~ 2.09, so the difference in age profile might explain a factor 2 in the mortality ratio of Italy vs South Korea. The actual ratio is currently 7.9: 827 out of 12462 cases in Italy (6.6%), 66 out of 7869 cases in South Korea (0.84%).