Fed cuts half point in emergency move amid spreading virus

Post by airstrike » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

vonmoltke wrote: post #275

airstrike wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to my fancy math based on numbers from Johns Hopkins COVID-19 dashboard[0][1], we're closer to a 7% mortality rate [0] direct link: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594... [1] posted to HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22475060

First, you are conflating mortality rate with case fatality rate (CFR). Mortality rate is deaths with respect to a total population; CFR is deaths with respect to diagnosed cases. Second, since this is an ongoing outbreak the CFR is a moving target. Your calculation assumes the ratio of deaths to recoveries remains what it is now for the ~40k active cases. However, the CFR by that calculation has been steadily fallin…

Post by hurricanetc » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:07 PM UTC

tssva wrote: post #194

airstrike wrote: post #27

From what I gather after spending more time than I'm willing to admit listening to every finance talking head out there, the consensus on the street seems to be that this will result in a temporary market recovery followed by the continued deterioration of stock prices given that fiscal or monetary* policy can't really affect the real economy in the near term* i.e. if the supply chain is indeed impacted due to COVID-…

I see 3 things driving the market now. An overdue market correction, reasonable reaction to supply chain issues and an irrational reaction to the virus. A temporary boost to the market gives more time for the true long term impact to the supply chain to play out. It may turn out that the boost only gave a short respite but it may also turn out that it saved the market unneeded turmoil. A short term boost also gives p…

Post by runamok » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

Seenso wrote: post #247

ISL wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days. Source: Page 12, paragraph 2. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

> The incubation period is not 25-30 days. The mean incubation period is 5-6 days, range 1-14 days. There are case reports of it being far longer than 14 days: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-incubation/c... > A 70-year-old man in China’s Hubei Province was infected with coronavirus but did not show symptoms until 27 days later, the local government said on Saturday, meaning the virus’ incubation peri…

Post by Erlich_Bachman » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:08 PM UTC

rbinv wrote: post #72

aazaa wrote: post #51

For those saying the Fed is running out of ammunition, study what the Bank of Japan has done. It owns close to 80% of the Japanese ETF market currently, with no end to the expansion of balance sheet in sight. After buying long treasuries, it's not unreasonable to imagine the Fed buying stocks, either individual issues or ETFs. The President would be for it, and it would be hard to drum up any opposition to it in cong…

What would be the endgame here?

Post by Der_Einzige » Tue, Mar 03, 2020, 5:10 PM UTC

MrPowers wrote: post #220

coliveira wrote: post #185

This is a big mistake. There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus, because this is not a demand problem, it is a supply problem. The economy WILL slow down because the major parts of the economic chain have been considerably affected by this virus. You cannot use more money when there is less to buy and sell. This will happen simply because whatever solution to the virus disruption will…

I am always surprised when software engineers have such strong opinions on monetary policy. Black and white statements like "There is nothing the Fed can do revive the economy from the Corona virus" aren't the best for macroeconomics discussions that rely on imperfect information and multiple related variables. Your wording makes it sound like you know more about macro than the best minds in monetary policy.