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James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

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281–290 of 330 posts

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#281
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think an actual Mars colony is centuries out just due to the amount of things left to invent to make it viable. More importantly, there just isn’t enough reason to bother doing it aside from satisfying the Edmund Hillary “because it’s there” urge. If you want more space to live, you’d be better off investing in women’s health and education so long run population trends can go down here in Earth. If you want natur…

Mars does have some benefits as the main living space over a space station at least. Gravity is gratis for one which really helps with long term health and we don't have to completely redesign our current technology to work if there's gravity where we will in space. And yes the resources for Earth are better found in the asteroid belt but it would probably be easier to mine and extract on Mars again because of gravit…

>Gravity is gratis for one which really helps with long term health and we don't have to completely redesign our current technology to work if there's gravity where we will in space. And yes the resources for Earth are better found in the asteroid belt but it would probably be easier to mine and extract on Mars again because of gravity and locality. The atmosphere, thin as it is, is still a convenient source for carbon and oxygen to support the life support cycle and could maybe be a source of nitrogen for growing plants. In those ways it's maybe an easier first long term settlement than space or the moon ignoring the cost of bringing everything there and resupply missions. [0]

Well, sort of. Most of these aren't as convenient as they sound. Gravity is only about 40% of Earth's IIRC, so if you had humans there you'd still be contending with loss of muscle and bone density. If we're talking about ambitious future technology I think a spinning wheel station is probably a more stable way to keep people healthy. Plus you have to contend with seasons and weather. Wind, dust, wild temperature swings and all the extra wear on materials you will get as a result. . .

It would also take forever to actually thicken up the atmosphere, so you would probably want to be careful how much you go pulling CO2 out of the air to grow plants if long-term viability is your priority. As for mining, locality is a big help, especially if you're going to be remote-controlling drones, but contending with landing/taking-off on a planet is a huge logistical expense. Particularly if you're dealing with lots of heavy machinery for mining.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#282
post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

The advantage of space colonisation is that you can control everything - the microbes, the infrastructure, the laws, the people. There are no environmental regulations, no taxes, no diversity policies, and with appropriate screening, no human, plant or animal diseases. To put it simply: imagine a space colony of a thousand of the best and brightest men and women Earth had to offer, where gonorrhea, AIDS, chlamydia, t…

Interesting take. The Red Mars trilogy explored something along those lines extensively and believably arrived to what you'd call Socialism. :)

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#283
post #280
post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

Getting people to invest money in crazy ideas that have no hope of working was also Elizabeth Holmes' gift. It's not rare or even that difficult. Now Musk has had previous successes, but I'd hardly call electric cars or even rockets and satellites genius or novel. The sad thing is that while he focuses on this, he's not only wasting his money and time, he's wasting the time and money of all the fools who believe that…

"fixing our own planet" is not a problem of resources. It is a problem of politics. Most of the people working on space (Musk included) are not that good at politics. They are working on hard problems instead of impossible ones.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#284
post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mars does have some benefits as the main living space over a space station at least. Gravity is gratis for one which really helps with long term health and we don't have to completely redesign our current technology to work if there's gravity where we will in space. And yes the resources for Earth are better found in the asteroid belt but it would probably be easier to mine and extract on Mars again because of gravit…

>Gravity is gratis for one which really helps with long term health and we don't have to completely redesign our current technology to work if there's gravity where we will in space. And yes the resources for Earth are better found in the asteroid belt but it would probably be easier to mine and extract on Mars again because of gravity and locality. The atmosphere, thin as it is, is still a convenient source for carb…

Yeah I'm not saying it's easy just convenient. Ring stations are a bit tricky because they have to be quite big before you stop experiencing appreciable differences in the 'gravity' between your head and feet which would probably cause some novel medical issues. I was mostly thinking about the long term once we have people living their whole lives in either location having some gravity even at a fraction would make Mars more hospitable for long term living.

In either location the initial construction will be very intensive/expensive in space you need to launch or refine and assemble vast amounts of material where on Mars there's the option of a small starter base while you dig tunnels out for the main living quarters. [0]

Either path is definitely difficult I'm just trying to highlight the ways Mars is less of a leap because it's another planet and we don't have to reinvent the wheel when it comes to things like extracting and refining metals or every single industrial process that makes the modern world tick.

> It would also take forever to actually thicken up the atmosphere, so you would probably want to be careful how much you go pulling CO2 out of the air to grow plants if long-term viability is your priority.

I don't think this is actually a huge concern making the atmosphere livable without a suit will take an incredible amount of engineering and like on Earth while we're talking about raw elemental materials the amount humans can possibly use pales in comparison to the amount available. [1] Any project like that will dwarf anything we've done to date.

[0] With several intermediate steps like building habitats out of processed rocks from the surface for example.

[1] There are rare exceptions I know of like Helium where the main issue is still cheap supply not actually running out.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#285
post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

>how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get

they have already got very bad - the conservative anti-progress people are running the show more and more, and by means of SpaceX and Tesla Musk is saving our civilization from the main danger for a technological civilization, the danger of being completely overtaken by the conservative anti-progress people.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#286

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The point of colonizing Mars (for Musk) is not to move there when Earth becomes inhabitable. It's too remove the single point of failure for the species that Earth currently represents. Fair point. However it's sad to think that as a species we're so petty and narrow-minded that we need a backup in case we fuck this planet up ourselves. Maybe I'm too harsh, but I almost feel that we don't even deserve a backup if w…

The backup is not necessarily against a man-made catastrophe. A stray asteroid in the right place at the wrong time is perfectly capable of fucking up Earth without our assistance.

Why don't we put effort into identifying and diverting the asteroids?

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#287
post #55

Perhaps it might have been possible in some long distant past to underestimate Elon Musk and write him off as a crazy person. That time is gone. If Musk appears to be doing something crazy you've not understood it. > It’s crazy, completely crazy. Elon Musk has read too much science fiction. He got carried away with it. If I were in his position, I would not waste my fortune on colonizing Mars. And all they would lear…

I'm gonna take the risk of being extremely unpopular and I'll say that Musk is completely overrated. I think he's nowhere near the level of people that we usually think of as geniuses. In certain ways he's good at marketing and hyping things up, but a lot of his ideas, especially the Mars one, are nonsensical. Just try to think about this: how bad do the conditions on Earth have to get before it makes sense to try to…

Why did pilgrims voyage the dangerous seas from Europe to the Americas when they could have stayed put? In the Americas, why did groups (the Mormon pioneers easily come to my mind but there were many others) set out west into mostly uninhabited territory, with many dying on the way and when they finally stopped to settle, instead of trying to make things work where they were? How bad could the conditions have been?

Understand those motivations and you'll understand why in the current century nowhere on Earth is as appealing as Mars for satisfying the needs that previously could have been satisfied by going a bit further west. The environmental challenges of the journey and the destination will be great, yes, but the payoff will be indescribably (if you don't understand those motivations at an emotional level) worth it for those who meet the challenges.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#288

Most of this reads as "this is how it worked for me so it must work like this for everyone". I understand he "enjoys controversy" but it's hard to take someone seriously who says things like "Oh, politicians should just ignore the protests and keep their minds straight. It will go away. It always does. They’ll find another big issue after a little while and switch to something else.", as if protests have never effect…

The part about cancer was where I stopped reading. I got cancer they just cut it out it isn't that bad! Middle class people don't die of cancer?

That may be his confirmation of ignoring the protest. You stop reading and thinking when you hear a trigger you don't like. Making your commentary sort of ...simplistic. I don't claim to be deep. But he's 100 and lived thru 5 cancers. Maybe he knows more... I'm a boomer, read his stuff, was thrilled with SimEarth 30 yrs ago. I believe in climate change, but have worked with climate data on EOS/NASA projects, also saw the political aspect of no emergency means no funding. Also a big believer in nuclear power. You should read up on thorium reactors. Its a big world to change/save/immolate.

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rockets for long haul flight is still a goal of SpaceX's. They are pursuing that as a kind of secondary market (which would have a LOT more demand than Mars missions) for their Mars rocket. In fact, they're more serious about that now than ever. Hyperloop is making progress. It wasn't a priority for Musk; he didn't start a Hyperloop company, but open-sourced the idea and let others run with it. Those companies ha…

Thanks for the comprehensive reply :D If at least the hyperloop project manages to get off the ground (pun sort of intended) that would still be a nice contribution to human progress. I'm not at all sure about the long-haul rockets though. I think having rockets near population centers is extremely dangerous to begin with. Secondly, I'm not sure the cost-benefit ratio makes sense. Transport aboard a rocket must be ex…

> If at least the hyperloop project manages to get off the ground (pun sort of intended) that would still be a nice contribution to human progress.

I don’t agree. We already have maglev, is hyperloop going to be cheaper to build/operate? If not, why would the marginal speed increase prompt governments to invest in this kind of infrastructure vs. traditional rail or maglev? The problem is not that hyperloop won’t work, it’s that it is another gadgetbahn[1] that doesn’t make economic sense in a political climate where infrastructure investment is verboten.

[1] http://www.cat-bus.com/2017/12/gadgetbahn/

Re: James Lovelock: 'I Would Not Waste My Fortune on Colonizing Mars'

#290
post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So did my Aunt. She had cancer a bunch of times before it eventually took her out. The toll that your body takes after chemo and/or radiation therapy makes the cancer that will materialize later in your life a lot more threatening, in addition to how your body decays over time. So basically, the older you get and the more chemo you've had, the higher likelihood you have of cancer taking you out. If Lovelock has had "…

Considering he's over 100, I doubt he's concerned about such a fate. Also, he might be talking about skin cancers, which are easily removed, yet people often wait until they've metastasized.

I have doubts. You typically don't see an oncologist for skin cancers unless it has metastasized. Mortality is high at that point. I don't count the number of simple skin cancers anymore.
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