Tesla Financial Results 2019 Q4

Post by imtringued » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 10:25 AM UTC

mrep wrote: post #214

ninth_ant wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you describe would be the “bull case” dozens of billions in valuation ago. Right now we are quite disconnected from that, in my analysis. To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) and do an Amazon-like turnaround of losses into profitability. Anything short of that, their valuation is ludicrous.

> To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) Toyota has over twice the market cap that Tesla has (230 billion vs 105 billion) and considering how big the auto industry is outside of just these 2 companies, I don't know how you think an automotive company at 105 billion is vastly overvalued.

Post by optimiz3 » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 10:37 AM UTC

xkjkls wrote: post #231

zaroth wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually there’s a third option which has been discussed on their financial calls. Their capital efficiency has markedly increased. To put it less glamorously, they burned boatloads of money chasing “alien dreadnaught” style fully automated production, and after recognizing that failure (better late than never) they now find they are able to build out new production lines at a fraction of the first line’s cost.

Maybe. My bet is that they have been underinvesting in order to meet financial results, and that that will catch up to them. Looking at other financial statement history, this seems like a safe bet.

Post by speedgoose » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 11:21 AM UTC

jonplackett wrote: post #277

speedgoose wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many EVs have a good enough range and more than good enough performances. Sure a ipace or etron don't drive as far as a equivalent Tesla, but sometimes you don't need that. Also, we are many to love the i3 look. It's a matter of tastes.

I realised awhile back how my brain works when I buy stuff. Most of my happiness with something I buy is based on regret or not. I know that if I buy an electric car that isn’t a Tesla, whenever that car bugs me, I will think ‘damn it, I wish I bought a Tesla’ But if I buy a Tesla, I’m not going to think it wish ‘I’d bought a leaf’ That’s just me. I don’t even have an electric car yet. But my name is down for the cyb…

Post by megablast » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 11:29 AM UTC

rodgerd wrote: post #204

ninth_ant wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you describe would be the “bull case” dozens of billions in valuation ago. Right now we are quite disconnected from that, in my analysis. To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) and do an Amazon-like turnaround of losses into profitability. Anything short of that, their valuation is ludicrous.

They would have to do substantially better than Amazon, who lost far less money before becoming profitable.

Post by kanox » Thu, Jan 30, 2020, 12:18 PM UTC

hyperbovine wrote: post #226

mrep wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To justify their current valuation, the “bull case” is for them to dominate the entire automative industry (not just the EV segment) Toyota has over twice the market cap that Tesla has (230 billion vs 105 billion) and considering how big the auto industry is outside of just these 2 companies, I don't know how you think an automotive company at 105 billion is vastly overvalued.

The argument is not that no car maker deserves to be valued at $XXX billion. It's that Tesla, which produced around ~1/30th the number of autos as Toyota last year, probably shouldn't have a market cap that's anywhere near Toyota's.