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Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

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Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#281

Post by scarface74 »

jedberg wrote: post #240
scarface74 wrote: post #81

What’s amazing is how little changed. - Apple and Google are still the only two mobile operating systems that matter and they are still in relatively the same position. iOS still controls the high end where the money is and Android has the market share but the OEMs are not making any money. - Facebook is more profitable and popular. - Amazon is still the number one online retailer, the Kindle is still by far the most…

> Netflix is still the dominant streaming platform. Netflix didn't start streaming until 2011. So it wasn't a streaming platform at all in 2010.

The big announcement when the iPad was introduced in March 2010 was that Netflix would have an app for it. It had been streaming for at least three or four yesss by then.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#282

Post by bjz_ »

guidoism wrote: post #123
CoolGuySteve wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that always really bugged me about the "the language will figure it out" philosophy is the complete disregard towards carbon footprint. Like yeah, you can make an interpreted dynamic language that's pretty neat, but you can also make something like go, swift, or Julia that jits and also captures 90% of that ease of use while significantly reducing your hosting costs/energy consumption. Going forward I think…

I'm actually pretty amazed at what the Javascript VM people have done in the past decade. It's way more than I ever expected. As far as the carbon footprint, well, yeah, it depends. At Google I remember a friend talking about how he cringed whenever he added more code to the pipeline that ingests the entire internet. He said that he wondered how much extra carbon was release into the atmosphere just because of his st…

> At Google I remember a friend talking about how he cringed whenever he added more code to the pipeline that ingests the entire internet. He said that he wondered how much extra carbon was release into the atmosphere just because of his stupid code.

I wish companies were under more financial pressure to actually track and mitigate this. (hint hint, carbon taxes)

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#283

Post by taneq »

whiddershins wrote: post #53
darzu wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - The next big thing will be something totally unknown and unpredictable now, as user-generated content and social networking were in 1999. However, when it does appear, various 'experts' on it will spring from nowhere to lecture us all about it. It will still be really cool, though. I think this basically describes AI.

Ummm, Uber?

Crowdsourcing / the ‘sharing’ or gig economy are huge.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#285

Post by Dravorek »

switch007 wrote: post #244
onefuncman wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you saying you have a child with a cell phone or tablet that has location services explicitly turned off ? i dunno, seems negligent to me

If you're tracking them, so are other people. (Though, as we all know, the real, proper privacy fix is not having a phone.)

"The only thing that can stop a bad guy with your kids position data is a good guy with your kids position data" :P

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#286

Post by maxerickson »

CoolGuySteve wrote: post #104
TulliusCicero wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - As Moore's Law marches on, dynamic languages that are even slower than Ruby are likely to catch on. They may be to Ruby what Ruby is to Java, trading even more programmer time for CPU time. Interesting how plausible this one is, yet turned out to be terribly wrong: the newer hyped languages that got some uptake were largely compiled ones like Swift, Rust, Kotlin, and Dart.

One thing that always really bugged me about the "the language will figure it out" philosophy is the complete disregard towards carbon footprint. Like yeah, you can make an interpreted dynamic language that's pretty neat, but you can also make something like go, swift, or Julia that jits and also captures 90% of that ease of use while significantly reducing your hosting costs/energy consumption. Going forward I think…

Energy is gonna keep on getting cheaper.

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#287

Post by maxerickson »

soneca wrote: post #33
darzu wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> - The next big thing will be something totally unknown and unpredictable now, as user-generated content and social networking were in 1999. However, when it does appear, various 'experts' on it will spring from nowhere to lecture us all about it. It will still be really cool, though. I think this basically describes AI.

No, definitely Bitcoin

Bitcoin isn't really all that cool though.

It replaces trust with massive resource consumption and doesn't do a good job of being digital money (it is hard to use safely, it is hard to use anonymously).

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#288

Post by dmos62 »

SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #251
aazaa wrote: post #185

The most striking thing about the thread is how little of current importance was even mentioned: - Bitcoin would become the decade's best investment by far - the President of the US would conduct foreign policy through Twitter - electric scooters would become a billion dollar business (Bird, Lime, etc.) - the sharing economy would threaten the taxi and hotel industries (AirBNB and Uber) - escalation of school shootin…

> escalation of school shootings Bubble thought. School shootings are down from previous highs and are actually very rare [0]. COVERAGE and willingness to use any incident to promote a very specific narrative are up. [0] https://news.northeastern.edu/2018/02/26/schools-are-still-o...

This one also surprised me. Are school shootings up? Or is the media peddling violent news more aggressively?

Re: Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? (2010)

#290

Post by ianleeclark »

dmos62 wrote: post #288
SlowRobotAhead wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> escalation of school shootings Bubble thought. School shootings are down from previous highs and are actually very rare [0]. COVERAGE and willingness to use any incident to promote a very specific narrative are up. [0] https://news.northeastern.edu/2018/02/26/schools-are-still-o...

This one also surprised me. Are school shootings up? Or is the media peddling violent news more aggressively?

There's a weird thing that happens here with language: school shootings mean multiple things. So, if someone is shot at a school at an after-hours drug deal gone awry, that counts just as much as parkland, even though there is a very distinguishable difference between the two.
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