Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

reuters.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 373 posts

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#281

Post by kalleboo »

kevin_thibedeau wrote: post #215
clarky07 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why are we counting hybrids? I'd really like an all electric car, but right I literally only have 2 options right now because i have a long commute. Tesla or Bolt. Nothing else has long enough range for me to get to work and back with any kind of leeway if I need to run to the store or something after work. It's incredibly frustrating that there aren't more competitors making serious cars that aren't just compliance…

Electric cars still suck in the winter. Air resistance, electric heating, and poor cold weather performance of LiIon batteries deplete the usable range. At the very least manufacturers need to provide auxiliary fossil fuel heating systems that aren't a hazard like current kerosene heater hacks. There is also the problem that pure electrics are largely off limits to the rentier population with no access to a plug wher…

The Volvo electric car prototypes (that they distributed only in fleet and car-sharing use in Sweden) had a tiny 3-liter gasoline tank used only for a heater

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#282

Post by reubenswartz »

what_ever wrote: post #187
davewritescode wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re way oversimplifying the situation. BMW isn’t anything like Microsoft. It’s important to remember that, if you count hybrids, BMW already sells more electrified cars than Tesla and the vast majority of them at a more affordable price point than Tesla (the i3 is a pretty good value). BMW sells a ton of cars and has made pretty good progress on the electric front. They’re just not a hype machine like Tesl…

I always find at least one completely unrelated comparisons or story in HN threads. I also hate the sorting of comments on HN. Is there a way to change it by hot/top like on Reddit? So often the first comment is completely off-topic/with examples in GP and turns into a thread of few more unrelated comparisons and anecdotes. BMW and Microsoft are in way different situations. State of electric cars right now (mainstrea…

Not arguing with the comment ranking. ;-)

However, I don't think electric cars are "mainstream", outside of a small slice of people, which probably overlaps pretty well with HN. ;) They have great mindshare thanks to Tesla's marketing (and because they're pretty damn good cars), but they're a blip in terms of overall car sales volume unless you filter by really high end sedans and SUVs.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#283

Post by reubenswartz »

mmalone wrote: post #196
reubenswartz wrote: post #166

This has a lot to do with culture. Microsoft had a mockup of an e-reader before the Kindle, but the powers that be in the company insisted that it should run Windows (not out of malice, but because that's how they saw the world.) When Bezos, who, at the time, ran a giant bookstore, started his Kindle project, he put them on a secret team in a different building. Car companies are run by people who love engines that b…

This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because they made a huge bet on hydrogen in the late 90s/early 2000s that didn’t pan out (which is too bad because it probably would have been better and easier to transition to). There will always be nostalgia for the “purity” and raw mechanical feel of older big gas…

Hydrogen is a different kind of ICE. They could imagine it. Electric was hard to imagine.

I'm not even disagreeing with the main premise of the article-- there's no way BMW could shift the bulk of its production to electric right now. I'm just saying the could for some of the high(er?/est?) end vehicles that have low volume anyway, and they can charge ~$100K for the gas versions. Electric would be faster and have more cachet.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#284

Post by Pulcinella »

reubenswartz wrote: post #283
mmalone wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because they made a huge bet on hydrogen in the late 90s/early 2000s that didn’t pan out (which is too bad because it probably would have been better and easier to transition to). There will always be nostalgia for the “purity” and raw mechanical feel of older big gas…

Hydrogen is a different kind of ICE. They could imagine it. Electric was hard to imagine. I'm not even disagreeing with the main premise of the article-- there's no way BMW could shift the bulk of its production to electric right now. I'm just saying the could for some of the high(er?/est?) end vehicles that have low volume anyway, and they can charge ~$100K for the gas versions. Electric would be faster and have mor…

Hydrogen fuel cells are electric and electric wasnt hard to imagine. Electric cars have been around since the 1880s.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#285

Post by csours »

skybrian wrote: post #100

Folks, two years is not very long. The optimistic take on this is "wow, we might get mass production of electric cars in two years? Great!" How long does it take to design and build a car factory, anyway?

> How long does it take to design and build a car factory, anyway?

On the order of:

5 years to design and build an all-new car.

2-3 for an all-new factory.

1 year to re-tool an existing factory.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#286

Post by Pulcinella »

tzakrajs wrote: post #214
mmalone wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because they made a huge bet on hydrogen in the late 90s/early 2000s that didn’t pan out (which is too bad because it probably would have been better and easier to transition to). There will always be nostalgia for the “purity” and raw mechanical feel of older big gas…

I wouldn't rule a hydrogen fuel cell revolution out yet. If humans develop technology that allows hydrogen fuel to be safely generated at the pumping station, then transportation costs for hydrogen fuel would be greatly reduced and thus the efficiency over batteries could be realized. I used this as my source for efficiencies: https://electrek.co/2017/10/26/toyota-elon-musk-fuel-cell-hy...

I think the cifficulties with hydrogen FCs right now are:

1. Efficient production of Hydrogen at the pump station. 2. Storage of hydrogen in the vehicle. Even liquid hydrogen isn’t very dense and has a rather low energy per volume. 3. FC catalyst. I think right now FC catakysts require precious metal catalysts like platinum and palladium.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#287

Post by ComputerGuru »

reubenswartz wrote: post #283
mmalone wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a whole lot of conjecture. Auto manufacturers were investing in alternative fuel way before Tesla came around. BMW lost some ground on electric because they made a huge bet on hydrogen in the late 90s/early 2000s that didn’t pan out (which is too bad because it probably would have been better and easier to transition to). There will always be nostalgia for the “purity” and raw mechanical feel of older big gas…

Hydrogen is a different kind of ICE. They could imagine it. Electric was hard to imagine. I'm not even disagreeing with the main premise of the article-- there's no way BMW could shift the bulk of its production to electric right now. I'm just saying the could for some of the high(er?/est?) end vehicles that have low volume anyway, and they can charge ~$100K for the gas versions. Electric would be faster and have mor…

The first cars were electric. Electricity powering cars isn’t hard to to envision.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#288

Post by richardknop »

_ea1k wrote: post #99
dangrossman wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The base price on the Model 3 today is $49,000 and Tesla's own IR documents state that they don't expect to have a positive gross margin, even at that price point, until some time in the distant future after production is fully ramped up at both Fremont and the Gigafactory. It's not a very good example of the point I think you're trying to make.

They definitely haven't said that margins would be negative until the "distant future".

They are selling for a loss currently. Any margins from model S and X are being used to subsidise model 3 and overall they are still losing tons of money, profitability not even on the horizon. I wonder how long their current runway is without raising new cash again.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#289

Post by richardknop »

odammit wrote: post #249
Cookingboy wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>BMW can wait til 2020, but by then they’ll have missed the boat. What boat? Are people going to stop buying cars in 2 years? We aren't talking about cellphones here, 2 years, or even 5 years is nothing in the automotive industry. The current 3-series is 6 years old and a good 3-4 years behind competitors and is still selling strong. Having a 2-3 years lead in this industry is literally less than half the lifecycle o…

The boat that has all the $100k sales on it from people that don’t want to wait 2-3 years for a BMW. That boat. It’s red row boat in case you’re curious.

That boat is super niche. Numbers of $100k cars Tesla sells per year is very small and actually is not growing. So that boat is quite small and I don't see the issue for BMW.

You have to remember Tesla is losing hundreds of millions of dollars, so clearly that boat is not going to get far until they can start making money. Even Elon Musk won't be able to raise big rounds of new capital indefinitely.

Re: BMW says electric car mass production not viable until 2020

#290

Post by csours »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #15

GM reached the same conclusion when it built the EV-1. I expect that there are tremendous forces inside a company that push back on the sort of radical change that electric cars represent. The difference between then and now is Tesla. I wonder if anyone asked BMW if they were given the opportunity to mass produce the Model 3, if they would have the same opinion. As for looks, the i8 looks pretty nice. It is apparentl…

> I expect that there are tremendous forces inside a company that push back on the sort of radical change that electric cars represent.

In a publicly traded automaker you must present a business case for a vehicle before you are allowed to design and build it. The business case has to show some kind of profit one way or another, otherwise the board or executive committee reporting to the board will not approve it.

It would be fascinating to see the business case for the Bolt EV, as it really looks like it's not making money from direct sales (speaking only from my understanding of public materials, I have no special knowledge of this).

Disclaimer: I work for GM, but not on any of this.

Post reply on HN