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US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

nytimes.com

281–290 of 436 posts

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bubbles are caused by speculation, often by unsophisticated investors. Since an education is a non-transferrable asset it's difficult to conceive how it could be classified as a "bubble". Speculators buy assets that they aren't going to use themselves purely to sell it to someone else. If speculators are selling to mostly to other speculators and transactions between speculators starts taking up the bulk of the activ…

I've never believed in the "speculators" argument. Either there's a market or there isn't. I believe bubbles rise and pop owing to the properties of Ponzi schemes, which rise and pop. When a market takes on Ponzi-like characteristics (usually not intentionally), that's when it becomes bubble-like. Any wealth-concentrating mechanism, capitalism itself included, is essentially a pyramid system, which needs increasing i…

Except what it the "market" is other speculators? We're seeing this again now in major metropolitan areas, except now it's international speculation. Foreigners looking to park their money in more stable economies and willing to pay a premium to do so. Everyday people get stuck in the middle paying higher prices, which just inflates things even more. At this rate we'll get another housing crash, and a student loan crash. Banks love student loans because they're virtually guaranteed (no bankruptcy), and the government guaranteed return is substantial--far exceeding the actual return to the borrower (remember real wages have been stagnant for twenty years).

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, maybe it's different now, but my generation (went to school in the mid 90s) was not told to "just go to the best college no matter what": We were also advised to consider the cost and carefully choose a major so as to produce a positive expected ROI. Obviously nobody has a crystal ball and you can never tell when huge, industry-wrecking changes are coming, but it was well understood that majoring in Und…

>went to school in the mid 90s >but it was well understood that majoring in Underwater Basket Weaving The way you make such a condescending argument and blame the victim takes away any credibility in your comment. The issue is that tuition has ballooned since the 90s. Tuition is outpacing income/inflation and most else, so regardless of what school or major, the ROI is going down for most. Also, even if you went to a…

Check your facts, most student loan debt hasn't been dischargeable since the 1970s. The 2005 change allowed for-profit banks to get in on the game.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#283
post #131

An alternative view, and one I happen to subscribe to: a balance sheet analysis shows that US debt must go up over time to support exogenous capital flows. Whether US debt grows in the housing sector, student loans, revolving debt, etc is a function of internal, domestic dynamics (including laws, local economic structure, etc). But the total capital flow into the US exceeds the outflow; that money ends up on a balanc…

I'd like to understand this better. There's two villages. A businessman from village B comes to village A and buys a store from Bob for 100$. Bob keeps the money for a rainy day. Where is debt increasing?

Critically, the two villages have their own currency. In order to buy Bob's store, the purchasing villager must convert some amount of his currency into Bob's. She does this by selling some of her currency on the open market, converting it to Bob's currency (dollars, apparently).

Ironically, the debt increases based on what Bob does with the money. When purchasing villager brings $100 in capital, that's an inflow. If Bob turned around and bought a business in village B, all we've done is changed names on titles. No net capital flow. But if Bob keeps the money within his village, it gets deployed locally. If it's saved for a rainy day, it's in a bank account somewhere (or stocks, or whatever), and that money gets redeployed as debt someone else owes to the bank that Bob uses. (If he literally stuffs it in a mattress, that's actually deflationary seignorage -- and that doesn't happen at a significant enough scale to matter to international macro... though you could see the gold market as a strange derivative of that impulse.)

So yeah, the debt is created by the lending-on of Bob's newly liquid capital (while the old, embodied capital of his shop still exists). If Bob spends it instead of saving it, the mechanism is a little more abstract, but a balance sheet analysis is pretty simple: Bob just spent $100 that he used to have; that's $100 of extra consumption that was financed by the foreign capital input of the purchaser... the fact that he's not literally in debt isn't the point, since a country's aggregate debt is just everyone's assets in a country minus everyone's obligations; if a net lender reduces her capital on loan, that's the same as a debtor increasing his obligations...

Let's make this less abstract. Let's say the purchaser is Alicia, and she's from Mexico. Her capital is in pesos (she has stores in Mexico, which transact in pesos, so that's what her accrued capital is in). In order to buy Bob's store, she needs to convert to dollars, which she buys on the open market, perhaps by just changing it via her bank, or some simple forex transaction. (Note that the ease of these transactions is probably part of what has changed internationally, to allow these dynamics to dominate.)

The fact that she has to change currency is exactly what drives the dynamic. If Alicia had a US entity, with US-based, dollar-denominated capital, there's no net flow to account for, just a change in paper ownership (though Bob gets to decide how that cash gets allocated now, not Alicia).

But since Alicia represents a foreign capital purchase, her choice to purchase Bob's store is both an explicit capital inflow and an implied investment in the US economy. The explicit allocation is clear: she has converted peso-denominated wealth to US-based (and dollar-denominated) assets. The implicit investment is a function of the overall capital balance: she has effectively, at the margin, pushed $100 of additional capital into the US, by selling assets (or calling in deposits) in pesos, and using the liquid pesos to buy $100. (Note that calling in a deposit is equivalent to calling in a loan, reducing endebtedness in Mexico by the same amount -- though it's obviously mediated by banks.)

If we think of trade as driving exchange rates, we should see a balancing act, where the 'cost' of pesos relative to dollars just went down; by showing excess demand for dollars (to buy US assets, namely Bob's store) and excess supply of pesos (that she had to sell), Alicia is effectively affecting the relative exchange rates of pesos-to-dollars simply by 'voting' on the relative supply and demand. In a normal, trade-driven framework, the dollar would become stronger, purchasing more on the open market, and pesos would become weaker. That would drive up the implied wage of US workers, making US goods more expensive, and making Mexican wages lower (in absolute terms), so Mexican goods are now relatively, and marginally, cheaper. Over time, those price differences would offset the capital flow, because the pricier US goods would theoretically suffer on the open market, and the Mexican goods would look like a relative bargain, so capital would net flow to Mexico to balance the capital flow represented by the purchase of Bob's business.

And that would be a natural framework to understand the transaction, if trade actually drove capital flows. And that's how we answer toy models. But the dominant dynamic in 2017 is that capital flows move independent of trade; I'm thinking of a statistic that Pettis cited (sorry, don't have it at my fingertips), but the total global capital flows are something like 5x what would be necessary to account for cross-border flow of goods and services.

What? Why? Well, because entities on both sides of every border are busy investing and divesting; Alice and her compatriots are also buying US stocks (with converted pesos), as are Bob and his compatriots, selling dollars to buy assets in pesos, reminbi, won, euros.... Do you have international exposure in your 401k? Okay then, you're participating in international capital flows, too.

So the total volume of capital flows dwarfs trade, and we can't honestly expect trade fundamentals to drive exchange rates and capital allocation. That worked for Adam Smith's toy model about English wool and Spanish wine, but it fails today. No, what dominates today is the capital allocation, which is extremely liquid, very fast, highly leveraged, and untethered from productivity fundamentals (or at least, it's not first-order).

So what is the free variable? If international capital allocation is driven by its own dynamics (capital flight from unstable regimes, fleeing 'financial repression', etc), and exchange rates float, how does the US absorb capital flows from the rest of the world? (Again, note the causal inversion: we have a trade deficit in the US because of international capital flows, not the other way around.)

The balance sheet answer is simple, and obvious: we must consume more than we produce, consume more of the world's productivity, financed by capital flow into the US. And that excess consumption is debt, which ends up on someone's balance sheet: the US government (the deficit / national debt), corporate balance sheets (corporate debt, though that's usually returns-driven, so limited by the potential for near-term investment returns), or household debt.

And household debt can be revolving debt (credit cards, the balances are driven higher because foreign capital is implicitly financing lower interest rates), mortgage debt (because home values are driven up by cheaper mortgages, financed again by capital flows), student debt, automotive debt....

I hope I haven't made things murkier.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going to college without debt is not always possible. I tried everything to get scholarships to no avail. Picking a major with a good ROI is definitely possible. Assuming everyone can do what you did is foolish because there's not physically enough scholarships to go around. There's probably a much greater number of people equally puzzled why they have to go to community college because they couldn't get a scholarshi…

I think his point was that he went to a college he could afford. It's true that not everyone can get scholarships to pay for their entire education. But no one has to pay $40k+/year in tuition to get a good education.

The right way to put it is, "no one should have to pay $40k+/year in tuition". This is a failure of the system, period. And when the bubble explodes it will be a decade or more too late.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#285
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to understand this better. There's two villages. A businessman from village B comes to village A and buys a store from Bob for 100$. Bob keeps the money for a rainy day. Where is debt increasing?

In this case, the net capital flow is zero. $100 is transferred from B to A, and a business worth $100 is transferred from A to B.

There's merely a transfer of liquidity if the two villages share a currency. But that's a delicate equilibrium; to wit, the Euro area, where capital flows can't be balanced by the exchange rate mechanism, so they're balanced by unemployment.

Pettis does a better job of explaining (my previous, insanely-long-winded post is exhibit A), but the net result of unbalanced capital flows is typically an increase in debt, which is often manifested in the unemployment rate for an open economy. That's basically the story in peripheral Europe right now; Greece suffered more from a fixed exchange rate with Germany than from corruption and tax avoidance. At least, if you subscribe to the balance sheet analysis.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#286
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd like to understand this better. There's two villages. A businessman from village B comes to village A and buys a store from Bob for 100$. Bob keeps the money for a rainy day. Where is debt increasing?

In this case, the net capital flow is zero. $100 is transferred from B to A, and a business worth $100 is transferred from A to B.

[deleted]

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Going to college without debt is not always possible. I tried everything to get scholarships to no avail. Picking a major with a good ROI is definitely possible. Assuming everyone can do what you did is foolish because there's not physically enough scholarships to go around. There's probably a much greater number of people equally puzzled why they have to go to community college because they couldn't get a scholarshi…

I think his point was that he went to a college he could afford. It's true that not everyone can get scholarships to pay for their entire education. But no one has to pay $40k+/year in tuition to get a good education.

In Denmark everyone can get scholarships to pay for their entire education. That and they get a stipend for living expenses. Everyone gets this, young or old, rich or poor.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except now there's a glut of aspiring junior engineers in the market. A friend of mine who graduated 1-2 years ago from a bootcamp told me his cohort's job placement rate after 3 months was 90% whereas this year it's less than 50% at the same school.

IMO there's a glut of subpar junior engineers that don't understand CS principles. Have been doing this a while; everyone who understands data structures and algorithms gets snapped up pretty quickly.

Lol. Snap me up Scotty!

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#289

I think it's going to hit housing hard (again), but probably not anytime soon. A lot of my friends have student loan debt that will never be paid off. They either can't get a job that pays enough to pay it off in a timely fashion or they choose not to grind for 5-8 years to pay it off. Instead, the plan is to do as little as possible for the next 25 years until it's forgiven, and try to keep as much cash off the book…

This is basically not possible in my country since there is basically no cash. Most people I know don't carry cash at all if it's not absolutely necessary for some reason.

Re: US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High

#290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think his point was that he went to a college he could afford. It's true that not everyone can get scholarships to pay for their entire education. But no one has to pay $40k+/year in tuition to get a good education.

In Denmark everyone can get scholarships to pay for their entire education. That and they get a stipend for living expenses. Everyone gets this, young or old, rich or poor.

How do taxes work out in Denmark? I tried to work out how it would compare to the UK, but it seems significantly more complex to work out. I _think_ an average programmer on £50-60k would end up paying about 35-40% of their income in tax? Or have I completely miscalculated? Compared to about 30% in the UK
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