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Tesla to raise $1B

ir.tesla.com

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Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#281

Post by mikekchar »

adwn wrote: post #271
mikekchar wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Supply Chain is not that big a deal to fix This is kind of irrelevant, but somewhat amusing, so I figure I'll tell it. My neighbour (in the middle of nowhere in rural Japan) was some kind of automotive manufacturing expert before he retired. I don't even know his name (he tells me to call him "Tom"), but we go out drinking occasionally. He must have been a big wig because he spent a considerable amount of time in t…

> "We're out of fish", he said, motioning to the bar. :-) I don't get it.

We had an empty plate. We send that plate back to the bar. The sushi chef slices fish and puts it on the plate. If he goes below a certain amount of tuna, then he sends an empty tuna container to the sous chef. The sous chef takes tuna from the refrigerator and puts it in the container. If the refrigerator goes below a certain amount of tuna, the manager writes a note and puts it in an envelope for the fish monger. The fish monger gets the note and sends more tuna. If the fish monger goes below a certain amount of tuna, he sends a note to his agent at the fish auction. The agent at the fish auction buys a tuna and sends it to the fish monger. When the tuna at the auction is all sold, the fishermen bring more from their boats. When the boats are empty, the fishermen go out to sea to catch more tuna.

Only, we've caught almost all the tuna in the ocean, so please make sure to ask for something else at the bar.

Edit: Just to be clear, that was not Tom's point. His point was that the plate was empty, so by simply noticing it is empty, we can ask for more fish which "pulls" all the activity that ends up producing fish on our plate. In a kanban system, you only really need to worry about how much inventory you want to carry at each station and the connection to the previous station.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#282

Post by babyrainbow »

aerovistae wrote: post #256
babyrainbow wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>industry leaders mocked it as impossible. What achievement of Musk was "mocked as Impossible"? Now, was those really impossible or even hard enough; or some kind of cheap PR stunt to blow their achievements out of proportions?

A great many people said reusable rockets were not going to happen and that the pursuit of the technology would end in failure. The same has been said (and continues to be said in this thread ) of the ambition to revolutionize the automotive market with a compelling affordable electric car. Cheap pr stunt? What? How the hell is it even possible to blow SpaceX's accomplishments out of proportion? What they've done is…

>A great many people said reusable rockets were not going to happen and that the pursuit of the technology would end in failure.

A great many people said? Where? And more importantly, why? For what reasons did they say it was not possible? Was it impossible by laws of physics?

What "breakthrough" in physics did spacex make that made this suddenly possible? How come we never hear of any such breakthroughs, but only about these PR stunts?

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#283

Post by lmm »

jodrellblank wrote: post #274
M_Grey wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would probably be easier to have charging stations with people hot-swapping batteries, than charging station with extremely fast charge times. It would be a task that could be automated right out of the gate too.

"Give up your brand new $10k battery, for someone else's charged but worn old one". Seems like an unwelcome offer.

No-one wants to own a depreciating asset like a battery. The model would be something like "pay $x/year and any member of our nationwide network will swap out your battery for a battery with at least 100 miles' worth of charge, whenever you want". They can take care of replacing worn-out batteries on their side.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#284

Post by simonrobb »

whyenot wrote: post #227
Animats wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the Model 3 will end up costing way more that $35k, to turn a profit. That's Tesla's biggest risk - they can't deliver profitably at the price point they pre-sold at. The Model 3 is an ambitious car to sell for $35K. Tesla is not a "lean manufacturing" operation; their head counts at the auto plant per car sold are currently quite high. They'll probably get that figured out eventually, but meanwhile, they nee…

> It assumes Government subsidies for solar, which may be going away for political reasons. Isn't their car operation also vulnerable? Tax credits may be less easy to get rid of, from a political perspective, but I think Trump would be far more interested in promoting cars that run on coal than cars that run on electricity.

If the solar plan falls apart, electric cars would prop up the coal industry better than gasoline cars. The electric cars you charge from your wall outlet will be powered by coal, no?

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#285

Post by unprepare »

makomk wrote: post #268
prostoalex wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It assumes Government subsidies for solar, which may be going away for political reasons. Residential solar costs average out at 15c per kWh, post 30% tax credit. If the credit goes away, the 20c per kWh generation cost is still competitive compared to utility's retail rate. The bet is on solar technologies to continue incremental gains in efficiency, pushing the final price per kWh down. In the commercial and indu…

The obvious problem with this argument is that if grid-scale solar installations push down utility pricing, this will kill residential solar and SolarCity's business model revolves around residential.

Didnt they just agree to a large scale project in Australia? I would think they see this coming and are engaging more on the utilities side

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#286

Post by mtgx »

vkou wrote: post #234
xxbondsxx wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds nuts; it seems like a huge liability that they are putting AP2 in the hands of consumers when it can be more dangerous than just the average driver...

What liability? You're supposed to constantly be aware and in control of your vehicle when using AP2. (At which point, you may ask: What is the point of AP2..?)

It would be funny if in the future they say something like "So your new Tesla has Level 5 autonomy, but because the car still has a driving wheel, even if you turn on the Level 5 Autopilot, you're liable if an accident happens."

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#287

Post by mtreis86 »

flexie wrote: post #270
kumarski wrote: post #160

Uber as a ponzi scheme of ambition 1/ Basic premise was they keep highlighting their entry into larger and larger markets and so investors keep ponying up $ for the ambition. 2/ First, it was taxis 3/ Then, it was taxis + logistics 4/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership 5/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous 6/ Then taxis, logistics, vehicle ownership, autonomous, trucking 7 / Then taxis, logist…

In a ponzi scheme, nothing is created. Uber has created a service used by millions and which tens of thousands of people make an income from. Tesla has created products that hundreds of thousands of people use, millions want, and hundreds of millions admire. Tens of thousands of people work in their factories. To many of us, their products hold a promise of a better future. SpaceX is reopening a chapter of human expl…

Enron employed thousands - that doesn't make it less of a Ponzi scheme.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#288

Post by mtgx »

bischofs wrote: post #104

Tesla looks like they will lose that cool new thing vibe soon, the novelty of an electric car will wear off - especially when porsche or benz come out with an electric sedan or coupe. These companies will offer a much more compelling product with the ownership value that people expect from a luxury car company. I have shopped a model S and besides the electric drivetrain it is not really that nice of a car compared t…

Preferring an electric Porsche or Mercedes over an electric Tesla is one thing, but to say the "electric car novelty will wear off" is complete nonsense. EVs are the future, and they're only going to continue to replace gas-powered cars.

Re: Tesla to raise $1B

#289

Post by unprepare »

rebootthesystem wrote: post #190
Cookingboy wrote: post #6

As an investor of Tesla who bought into Elon's vision I've been getting more and more nervous about how the company is actually run at this point. A modern car company is as much of a production and supply chain company as it's a product and tech company. I get the feeling that due to Tesla being cutting edge in the tech department it led to all the supply chain/production problems being treated as if they are speed…

I read this book [1] back in the '90's. An amazing read about the world of auto manufacturing. Regarding Tesla, surely I am not the only one waiting for competition. I think the problem Tesla has is that when the giants awake they will outclass them at nearly every level. It's like thinking you are doing great in your open water swim until the triathletes leave you in their wake. Surely companies who have been honing…

>They are all waiting for the same thing: Cheaper, lighter, better energy storage.

>Tesla has a problem: It has to achieve scale before that moment in time.

Do they though?

With the gigafactory, they could very well be the company providing the batteries that the big manufacturers are waiting for.

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