How the Arab World Came Apart • Hacker News Board

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#281

Post by googletazer » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 4:52 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #62

fsloth wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some sources claim the book is racist and not backed by solid research. Any opinions on this? (looking for a good book on the topic).

> Some sources claim the book is racist Funny thing - given how easy it is to get an "racist" label these days, I'd treat this as a signal that the book may be touching on some controversial topics or reaching unpopular conclusions.

Thats my feeling as well. Everything that can be controversial and doesn't appeal to the mantas of MSM liberal media is labeled as an -ism.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#282

Post by SixSigma » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 4:56 PM UTC

marcusgarvey wrote: post #273

bogomipz wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are the "commentator classes"? People who take an active interest in their society? People who try to stay informed? Is that a "class"? What is a "taste maker" city? Please explain what they are and how you pin all the worlds ills on them. New York, DC and London are responsible for the worlds problems? I honestly have no idea what you are are talking about.

I'm not talking about all the world's ills but rather 4 recent events with global, often disastrous consequences. Perhaps it is news to you, but there is a certain kind of person who makes their daily bread on the strength of their supposed expertise in politics, economics and finance. Think tankers, Davos panelists, former political appointees, the experts commonly cited in papers like the FT, NYTimes, WaPo, and the…

People who make good forecasts are not polarized enough for punditry.

The authors of the book Superforecasting : The Science of Prediction have done research in this area. And a website [2]

Nate Silver also tells a similar story in his book. He proved it too, by turning pundit.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P...

[2] http://www.superforecasting.com/

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#283

Post by gotchange » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:05 PM UTC

return0 wrote: post #257

gotchange wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "where all arabs are united only in their resentment of the west" Is that how you view the political movements happening in the Arabic-speaking majority world - Sorry for the pedantry - from 2011 onward that we're consumed by resentment toward the West? It's gotta be about you, right? > "The arab world has always been far too divided to able to draw clear borders around their states" I had no idea that these politi…

I think you know what i mean, but you like to twist my words. I m not american. This is a cynical view from Europe. Believe it or not it's closer to the truth rather than believing that having elections suddenly would fix all the problems in countries like egypt, libya, syria.

If you think that this was an unfair characterization of your comment, can you please refute the points that I raised in my counterargument?

Because just taking your word for it won't cut it, sorry.

> "elections suddenly would fix all the problems in countries like egypt, libya, syria"

I'd take ballot-box-only democracy and majoritarianism over tyrannical strongman rule or military dictatorships anytime of the day but this is just me, a Middle Eastern native who really cares for the future, prosperity and the welfare of people living there.

I think that I also have the right to express and strive to achieve these political goals without interference or the "guardianship" of outside players. Since I can't tell you how you should run your countries, I expect this to be reciprocated too when it comes to running ours, and I think that this is a small thing to ask for.

It's very intriguing that for "Arab Spring" skeptics to only focus on failures like Libya and not success stories like in Tunisia. It just detracts from their credibility and makes their viewpoints look very partisan.

It is not the fault of the countries in the Eastern part of the Arabic speaking world that they're surrounded by reactionary forces in the region like the oil sheikhdoms or nationalist-led Israel that they would do everything they can to undermine the then-nascent democratic experiments to protect their interests and save their thrones but this is the topic of another article.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#284

Post by ktRolster » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:14 PM UTC

anonymousab wrote: post #171

snomad wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the utter disdain for both major candidates, perhaps this year we can hope for a 3rd party candidate. Here is a nice visualization of the 4 top candidates and their stances on a wide spectrum of issues http://imgur.com/gallery/n1VdV

In the eyes of a considerable many, voting for anyone else is the same as a vote for Trump. Maybe it has always been this way.

When anyone says that to me, I respond with, "No, because otherwise I would vote for Hillary." That both angers and confuses them, which delights me.

Alternately, to people who consider it the same as voting for Hillary, I blithely say, "No, because otherwise I would vote for Trump." Same lovely effect.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#285

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:17 PM UTC

gotchange wrote: post #283

return0 wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you know what i mean, but you like to twist my words. I m not american. This is a cynical view from Europe. Believe it or not it's closer to the truth rather than believing that having elections suddenly would fix all the problems in countries like egypt, libya, syria.

If you think that this was an unfair characterization of your comment, can you please refute the points that I raised in my counterargument? Because just taking your word for it won't cut it, sorry. > "elections suddenly would fix all the problems in countries like egypt, libya, syria" I'd take ballot-box-only democracy and majoritarianism over tyrannical strongman rule or military dictatorships anytime of the day bu…

> I'd take ballot-box-only democracy and majoritarianism over tyrannical strongman rule or military dictatorships anytime of the day but this is just me, a Middle Eastern native who really cares for the future, prosperity and the welfare of people living there.

The usual overt basis for complaints that elections are insufficient is that they don't end up as ballot-box-only democracy, but that they instead they often end up as one person, one vote, one time -- followed by tyrannical strongman rule.

OTOH, that's clearly not generally worse than just leaving existing tyrannical strongmen in place. I think the real concern is that locally popular strongmen buoyed by such a one-time election, in the short term, are more likely to have the domestic support to cause problems for neighbors and outsiders, while the often-unpopular existing strongmen are frequently hobbled in their ability to cause external problems by the needs to deal -- whether through active repression or ongoing negotiation and mollification -- with unruly internal factions. (Another is that external elites often have connections and established ways of working with the existing strongmen.)

The chance of making progress toward real democracy is often not seen as worth the risk for external parties (especially external elites); locals, of course, may have different calculus.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#286

Post by ktRolster » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:18 PM UTC

dragonwriter wrote: post #241

brightball wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And 3rd party. If there's ever a year where they gain traction, it's this year.

> And 3rd party. If there's ever a year where they gain traction, it's this year. No, to all evidence, 1992 was a far stronger year for that; while things might change between now and November, for pretty much the entire election season then Perot alone was polling above the combined total (at the same point in the campaign) of all non-major-party candidates this year. (And, during the primary season, sometimes ahead…

1856 was arguably a success, because it set the stage for a bigger electoral victory the next election cycle. You can't really expect a party to come from nowhere and win in a single election, they have to build up momentum, structure, and supporters.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#287

Post by ktRolster » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:23 PM UTC

j03m1 wrote: post #135

cmdrfred wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

She has to pay for the campaign/Clinton foundation donations somehow. Mark my words a vote for Hillary is a vote for war.[0] [0] https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/04/01/19496/defense-con...

Is it me or does 400k seems like pennies for the defense industry? Didn't she get 200k to do a talk at goldman? Does 400k really in debt these pols so much? How much media does 400k even buy?

That kind of money gives the donor access.....that means the donor can talk to the politician, and present their side of the story (as convincingly as possible).

The politician will feel that she maintains neutrality, and is making decisions for herself (not influenced by money), but since she has only heard one side of the story, she is likely to choose in that direction.

Similarly, if someone says to you, "hey, I have a problem, can you help me?" then you will probably help them if it's not too much trouble. Politicians are the same, except it costs $400k to be able to tell them that. And then the politician feels good that they have helped someone.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#288

Post by metaphorm » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:26 PM UTC

bogomipz wrote: post #266

metaphorm wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

are you actually confused about which people are being referred to though? seems like you're just getting pedantic here. Every single country profiled in the piece is majority Arab (ethnically), majority Arab (linguistically), and majority Muslim (religiously). what more meaningful distinction would you make that clarifies things? "Middle Eastern countries currently on fire"? They are certainly all countries that can…

I am not confused at all. I am pointing out that it is a BS term, with no accepted definition. That's hardly pedantry. And no you can't just say "Middle Eastern counties, the countries of the Mahgreb are "on fire" and they are not geographically part of the Middle East. So according to you the meaningful distinction is that its "currently on fire"? What happens if its not on fire or stabilizes politically? Does its s…

yeah yeah I've read Edward Said as well. Sure, its Orientalism and Imperialism crystalized into a language idiom. That's how language and culture works. We can find it distasteful all day but there's not much good to come from arguing semantics on the internet.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#289

Post by ktRolster » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:29 PM UTC

cstross wrote: post #70

crdoconnor wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Once the oil stops being important (Just Another Commodity like, e.g. iron ore), life will probably improve for citizens of the middle east: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resource_curse We'll stop meddling and making things worse. The leaders of those countries won't be able to substitute oil wealth for popular support or funnel money into pushing Wahhabism. It's the best thing that could happen to them.

It's the best thing that could happen to them. ... In the long term. In the short term, it's going to be very, very bad for them indeed, as the sole source of foreign exchange goes away and the ordinary folks find themselves abandoned in a climate-change-drought-crippled land that has become populated well above its agricultural carrying capacity, and the elite jets off to enjoy their stolen wealth in Switzerland.

Fortunately some countries (like Saudi Arabia) are making steps to reduce their dependency on oil, because they can see the coming problems if they don't.

Re: How the Arab World Came Apart

#290

Post by lukasm » Thu, Aug 11, 2016, 5:32 PM UTC

7Z7 wrote: post #218

lukasm wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

praying is not a problem. The biggest problem is lack of debt. Wanna open a new business? You can't take credit. Problems with cashflow? You can go to a debt prison. Forget about mortgage for a house etc.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you. But mortgages exist in lots of Muslim majority countries. Are you really suggesting that Muslims don't take on debt? You can take out a mortgage in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bangladesh, Morocco.. They were the first four I checked.

You can something similar to mortgage or credit in UAE as well, but being late on the payment has devastating consequences.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2194633/Luxury-high-...

It has consequence for enormous part of a life. For example, I was traveling using metro in Dubai. I had 5 dirham on my travel card and the trip I wanted to take costs 3 dirham. I couldn't enter the train, because the maximum charge is 8 dirham, so I could have negative balance.