Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight • Hacker News Board

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#281

Post by tostitos1979 » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:34 PM UTC

noir_lord wrote: post #258

tostitos1979 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you folks are saying is mostly true. VR and 4K are the drivers for a whole new compute cycle in the home. I think the current core counts for Xeon are good enough for cloud (by this I mean that I think CPU isn't the bottleneck for the average EC2, Google Compute, Azure instance). Any one care to comment?

In the sense of VR/4K the CPU is way less important than the GPU and we still have some headroom on those even with existing process, what will be interesting is when everyone else's process catches up with where Intel is now, they've generally stayed out in front of everyone else for a long time (except AMD for a spell). I'm really looking forwards to VR if it catches on though, having an insanely high resolution he…

Good point. Nvidia seems like the exciting company in this regard. I have a bad feeling they're going to tumble because the latest announcements related to Pascal have focused on deep learning instead of 4K for consumers. As far as I know, they haven't even announced their consumer Pascal cards yet. The rumor I've read online is announcements in June.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#282

Post by jonknee » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:34 PM UTC

tma-1 wrote: post #146

mathattack wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goldman's stock price is approximately 25% off it's 12 month high. [0] Morgan Stanley is approximately 35% off. [1] Seems like the market is properly taking in their bad news. Some parts of the market do fine, others get hit. And yes, some might be over-valued. When interest rates are low, the future cash flows of companies are discounted back at a lower rate. So if all things are equal (which they never really are,…

Both GS and MS (as well as other FIs) are off there highs because of all the volatility in the markets the past 6 months and worries about losses from bad energy loans. BAC, WF, Citi are all off their 12-month highs by a significant margin despite doing relatively well in Q1. Also, this has nothing to do with discounting the cash flows, it's mostly stock buybacks that's driving all the action: http://www.bloomberg.co…

> Both GS and MS (as well as other FIs) are off there highs because of all the volatility in the markets the past 6 months and worries about losses from bad energy loans.

No, they are off because they are making way less money (down 55% from a year ago!). In general volatility can be good for investment banks because it means higher trading volume. Revenue has been way down thanks to fewer deals (remember when tech companies had IPOs?) and reduced fixed income trading volume (GS revenue from fixed income trading is down 48% from a year ago).

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#283

Post by tostitos1979 » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:35 PM UTC

eru wrote: post #271

tostitos1979 wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you folks are saying is mostly true. VR and 4K are the drivers for a whole new compute cycle in the home. I think the current core counts for Xeon are good enough for cloud (by this I mean that I think CPU isn't the bottleneck for the average EC2, Google Compute, Azure instance). Any one care to comment?

We still need more CPU in the cloud. There's an almost unlimited appetite; and we still often look for optimizations to our program that reduce CPU load. (At least at Google. Not sure how much I am allowed to say in more detail, though..)

Touche. I've also been involved in building clouds but ours was focused on customers building web-apps. Those are probably not compute bound. I can see why data processing workloads would need more CPU.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#284

Post by bduerst » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:36 PM UTC

ranci wrote: post #93

dntrkv wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you pick and choose stocks, you can tell any story you want. Intel cutting its workforce is more of a reflection on the state of the PC market rather than the US economy as a whole. I'm not saying the market is overvalued or not, but this is in no way indicative of that.

If they can't sell computers in the digital age where software has taken over everything, you can think whatever you want but that does reflect poorly on the economy. Yes, many factors are at play. It is still a terrible sign.

What are you going on about?

Both Intel's sales and profit are even YoY in 2015, and up from 2013. This doesn't have much to do with computer sales.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#285

Post by jonknee » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:36 PM UTC

partiallypro wrote: post #150

mathattack wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Goldman's stock price is approximately 25% off it's 12 month high. [0] Morgan Stanley is approximately 35% off. [1] Seems like the market is properly taking in their bad news. Some parts of the market do fine, others get hit. And yes, some might be over-valued. When interest rates are low, the future cash flows of companies are discounted back at a lower rate. So if all things are equal (which they never really are,…

The GAAP P/E of the S&P is now at 24.28, that's near, if not, a record high. That's bad. It's very overvalued historically. Banking stocks are doing badly because interest rates are so low across the curve that they can't make money from the spread. But even at that, they are overvalued along with various momentum stocks like Tesla, Netflix (which we saw implode yesterday.)

What else would you expect to happen in a world with negative interest rates?

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#286

Post by jhulla » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:38 PM UTC

maaku wrote: post #256

jhulla wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is simply a tautology: the price is the price. Now the price may change, someone may have their thumb on the scale, there may be shill bidders driving sentiment, etc. But at the moment you get a bid/ask spread, that is what you get. Practically speaking, I personally don't believe the efficient market hypothesis due to the very obvious meddling by political actors, central banks, national treasuries, etc. Be…

That may have been your point, but it's not what you said. "Perfectly valued" means that the price is what it should be (for some definition of "should").

"Perfectly valued" to me means that at that moment, the price reflects the actions of everyone. It includes the actions of all buyers/sellers who choose to participate and not participate, the regulators, as well as the meddlers.

My point is a pedantic one referring to the OP using the word "overvalued". The market price is never over/under valued. It is merely the market price at that moment.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#287

Post by bduerst » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:40 PM UTC

Nullabillity wrote: post #232

bduerst wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, mobile hasn't figured out a good way to take over the workspace. Some of the tablet/laptop hybrids are getting closer. As for entertainment though, are you watching Youtube extensively on your desktop?

> Yeah, mobile hasn't figured out a good way to take over the workspace. Some of the tablet/laptop hybrids are getting closer. There already is a relatively mobile tablet/desktop hybrid that works pretty great for both consumption and getting work done. It's called a laptop. > As for entertainment though, are you watching Youtube extensively on your desktop? Yes. I have a phone, a tablet, a desktop, and a laptop. The…

Laptops typically aren't considered mobile devices (if we're being pedantic). Try running mobile apps on your laptop.

And yes, mobile devices have taken away entertainment share from the desktop as well as televisions.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#288

Post by tim333 » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:42 PM UTC

bduerst wrote: post #257

tma-1 wrote: post #39

So Intel is cutting 11% of its workforce, Goldman Sachs just reported a 56% drop in profits, Morgan Stanley had a 50% drop in profits, Netflix missed subscriber growth estimates etc... yet, the Dow just hit a 9-Month high, and the S&P500 is now above 2100. The whole market is overvalued, not just the tech unicorns.

>Bubble Four companies don't represent the market. Come on. I swear some users here will wish will wish bubbles out of the air to gripe about.

I don't think anyone above said "bubble". Overvalued is a different thing markets are usually either over or undervalued and probably overvalued today. Bubbles proper are kind of rare, the last major clear one being the 2006 housing bubble. You could argue there's a bond bubble presently.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#289

Post by bduerst » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:43 PM UTC

jonknee wrote: post #282

tma-1 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both GS and MS (as well as other FIs) are off there highs because of all the volatility in the markets the past 6 months and worries about losses from bad energy loans. BAC, WF, Citi are all off their 12-month highs by a significant margin despite doing relatively well in Q1. Also, this has nothing to do with discounting the cash flows, it's mostly stock buybacks that's driving all the action: http://www.bloomberg.co…

> Both GS and MS (as well as other FIs) are off there highs because of all the volatility in the markets the past 6 months and worries about losses from bad energy loans. No, they are off because they are making way less money (down 55% from a year ago!). In general volatility can be good for investment banks because it means higher trading volume. Revenue has been way down thanks to fewer deals (remember when tech c…

It would be interesting if they could release metrics on trading or investing activity, the way some software companies release stats about active users.

Then you could calculate revenue per trade (or something more useful along those lines) to use as a signal in these cases.

Re: Intel to Cut 12,000 Jobs, Forecast Misses Amid PC Blight

#290

Post by delecti » Tue, Apr 19, 2016, 11:43 PM UTC

shostack wrote: post #160

_qbjt wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I asked a friend who worked at Intel and he said part of it has to do with the company's hiring and organizational structure. The basic gist is that people are brought onto teams that only exist long enough to fulfill their initial objective. While some teams are dedicated to long-lived consumer product lines, others might focus on R&D or custom B2B orders. Once a team has fulfilled its responsibilities within the la…

Is this a similar issue to what was reported about Amazon getting rid of people after their product launches (even if successful)?

I don't believe that's a thing that happens at Amazon. I've worked here nearly 4 years, across several product launches (hardware and software) and only known of one person being let go, and that was for entirely unrelated reasons (politics and such).