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Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

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Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#281

Post by robotresearcher »

czhiddy wrote: post #111
newman314 wrote: post #69

People were losing their minds over the fact that iPhone shipments slightly declined. If you look at the year over year growth (excluding the massive bump for iPhone 6), it would show that AAPL is still ahead of the growth curve. See https://imgur.com/vO0kPEy * Apple's quarterly revenue: $75.9bil * Apple's quarterly profit: $18.4bil * Google's quarterly revenue: $21.3bil * Google's quarterly profit: $6.8bil In sheer…

If you add in the same comparison to Facebook's numbers, the valuations look even more puzzling (using the most recent quarter): * Apple's quarterly revenue: $75.9b * Apple's quarterly profit: $18.4b * Apple's market cap: $538.7b * Apple's P/E ratio: 10.24 * Google's quarterly revenue: $21.3b * Google's quarterly profit: $6.8b * Google's market cap: 517.6b (pre-earnings) * Google's P/E ratio: 35.37 (pre-earnings) * F…

The bet with Facebook is that one day they'll figure out how to get a little bit of money out of all their users. On the day that happens they'll have huge revenues. Their user base is absolutely enormous.

Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#282

Post by CydeWeys »

rokhayakebe wrote: post #246
bbq wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you let me know how you use grep to search the internet as effectively as I do with Google, sure!

Effectively or Efficiently? I can search the internet way better. Email me what you are looking for and 9 times out of 10 I will send you back something better than what Google will spit out. Furthermore you won't even have to sift through 10 links, or change your search, I will do all this and send you the result back.

This is such an incomprehensible boast. Do I think that you might be able to deliver me handpicked results that are better than a Google search? Sure. Can you do it for me in 100ms or better, and at no cost?

What are you even proposing, human search agents? That's absurd.

Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#285

Post by tim333 »

czhiddy wrote: post #111
newman314 wrote: post #69

People were losing their minds over the fact that iPhone shipments slightly declined. If you look at the year over year growth (excluding the massive bump for iPhone 6), it would show that AAPL is still ahead of the growth curve. See https://imgur.com/vO0kPEy * Apple's quarterly revenue: $75.9bil * Apple's quarterly profit: $18.4bil * Google's quarterly revenue: $21.3bil * Google's quarterly profit: $6.8bil In sheer…

If you add in the same comparison to Facebook's numbers, the valuations look even more puzzling (using the most recent quarter): * Apple's quarterly revenue: $75.9b * Apple's quarterly profit: $18.4b * Apple's market cap: $538.7b * Apple's P/E ratio: 10.24 * Google's quarterly revenue: $21.3b * Google's quarterly profit: $6.8b * Google's market cap: 517.6b (pre-earnings) * Google's P/E ratio: 35.37 (pre-earnings) * F…

For Facebook current profits are about $6bn a year. To justify a 319bn cap they'd have to earn maybe $18bn /year giving a 18x PE, or about 3x what they do today. I think it's quite likely they'll achieve that in the next 5-10 years.

You've got remember the billions of rural poor will probably be less poor in a decade or two.

Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#286

Post by CydeWeys »

tarblog wrote: post #230
marshray wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're making the mistake of thinking other people evaluate products the same way you do. How many people do you really think tested the copy and paste functionality on the original iPhone before making their purchasing decision? I think almost no one.

I think you're on the right track. The way I remember it: the product was still overwhelmingly better than everything else. Missing copy&paste was an "oh well" compared to owning an iPhone in 2007.

And it's not like they didn't get around to adding it. Apple does admit mistakes. They made their phones bigger too, finally.

Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#287

Post by eru »

peter303 wrote: post #247
pessimizer wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is grep AI?

I prefer using the Stanford term "symbolics systems" for a larger tent that includes AI, but excludes business and scientific computing. Google search would fall into this.

Symbolics systems seems to only encompass parts of AI that deal with symbolic information. What about modern number heavy machine learning?

Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#288

Post by CydeWeys »

bradshaw1965 wrote: post #198
Steko wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> investors think more money will be in the future of AI instead of consumer hardware and software No, first you are mistaking a bet on a single company for a bet on an industry. The obvious counterexamples being that there are no shortage of wannabe AI companies valued orders of magnitude lower than Apple, that doesn't mean wall street thinks devices beat ai as an industry gold mine. Google is valued highly today be…

... Google is valued highly today because they print money today. They print money because of search and advertising. They are really good at this and that's why their market cap exceed's Apple's today. ... That would be correct if they were value companies throwing off discounted cash flow but both Google and Apple are priced as growth companies. The market believes Apple has peaked in growth and that Google has a b…

> That would be correct if they were value companies throwing off discounted cash flow but both Google and Apple are priced as growth companies.

AAPL's P/E ratio as I write this is 10.26. I would strongly make the argument that Apple is thus NOT priced as a growth company.

Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#289

Post by nl »

czhiddy wrote: post #155
nl wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apple will always have a lower P/E because the costs associated with building and selling physical products is higher. Facebook's financials are ~1/3 Google's and so is its P/E. It's a much younger company and seems possible that's it's revenue and profit could approach Google's. I don't see anything unbelievable or even particularly unusual.

> I don't see anything unbelievable or even particularly unusual. Let's go back in time to a point when Apple's #'s roughly matched Googles. https://www.apple.com/pr/library/2011/10/18Apple-Reports-Fou... $28.27b revenue, $6.62 profit. In 2011, Apple's P/E ratio hovered around 14, with a stock price that fluctuated around $46-$56 throughout the year: http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html... htt…

A P/E ratio of 14, and the company basically tripled their numbers in ~4 years. Does Google's P/E of 35.7 suggests we can look forward to a rough 10x increase in Google's numbers over the next 4 years?

No, it means that investors didn't believe there was much room for further growth at Apple[1]. They were clearly wrong! (Note that if you think that they are still wrong then there is a good opportunity to make money here!)

(Also, P/E is often related to margin as well as growth potential. Google's better profit margin is a factor here).

[1] http://www.asymco.com/2011/03/24/analysts-apples-growth-next... - the quote here is "The P/E ratio has remained at despondent levels for over two years.... The logical explanation is that pricing reflects a consensus that growth will fall off a cliff... Growth may slow to 18 percent the following year."

Re: Alphabet Becomes the Most Valuable Public Company in the World

#290

Post by esun »

coldtea wrote: post #242
Kequc wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even that one feeds ads it thinks are relevant to you

And judging from the quality of those feeds, I'd call it AS (artificial stupidity) not AI.

Well it's smarter than running ads in newspapers, which generated a half-trillion dollars of revenue over a century.
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