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G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

nytimes.com

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Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#281

Post by bduerst »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #232
Merad wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I think this is just totally disconnected from the reality of the average American who lives outside of a major urban center. 1. Mom, dad, and kid all need to go to work/school at roughly the same time. If they all have a 15-20 minute commute (well below average for many areas) and the destinations for all three aren't in the same immediate vicinity, we're right back to the family needing 2-3 cars. 2. Eh, no.…

> If I live in 20 minutes outside the city, then I probably have to wait 20-30 minutes for a ride to arrive before I even start my trip Not according to studies I've seen, including the one cited in my original comment [1]. They map commute patterns, urban, suburban and rural, and take simultaneity and fleet access into account. In Ann Arbor, Michigan a "shared fleet [was predicted to] provide almost instantaneous ac…

The simulation you linked has a population density of 25,000 people per sq mile (New York City is 27,000 per sq mi.)

It only accounts for trips internal to the city which already have low wait times with existing taxi cabs, and does not simulate the waits for trips traversing into/out of the city.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#283

Post by CaptSpify »

ssmoot wrote: post #240
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

I think it's crazy unrealistic that autonomous cars will be the majority in anything short of 20 to 30 years. The tech doesn't even exist yet. It's taken that long just to see ABS become standard equipment across 90% of vehicles. And this just completely ignores the ~5 to 7 year product cycle. There's no way that in just one or two generations of the Taurus we have a completely self-driving car capable of operating i…

I'm curious if this will be another generation-gap thing. Like right now, the stereotype is "only old people still have cable-tv". Will it end up being "only old people still own cars"?

Maybe it will be 90% for <30 year-olds?

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#284

Post by rconti »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #140

It is predicted that autonomous cars will reduce America's fleet of vehicles by something like 10-fold [1]. I think it will unfold something like this: FIRST, instead three cars for mom, dad and kid, the average family has one car that drops mom off to work, then dad, and then the teen off to school. SECOND, aforementioned car makes use of its down time to drive strangers around via Uber, Lyft, et cetera. The car's o…

No, there just won't be private ownership.

It makes no sense to own and maintain your own FLEET of self-driving cars for your own family (since it's virtually guaranteed that multiple family members will need a car at the same time, at some point in time).

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#285

Post by rconti »

ssmoot wrote: post #270
frandroid wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We went from fliphone to total smartphone domination in 5 years. ABS is a sideshow, not a revolution. As soon as self-driven vehicles are market-ready, we'll see a massive car park upgrade within one car-generation, which I guess is 7 years. Droves of people will ditch their old cars just for the purpose of upgrading.

> We went from fliphone to total smartphone domination in 5 years. That's glossing over the Nokia video phone, the Treo, and all the Windows handsets. > ABS is a sideshow, not a revolution. I have no idea what you're trying to say. > Droves of people will ditch their old cars just for the purpose of upgrading. That seems like something that would require evidence. Or at least a theory to back it up. My 10 mile round-…

Antilock brakes are a sideshow because nobody cares. Yes, it makes cars safer, but few people bought specific cars because ABS was available. It was just another side feature. It was not something that people actively sought out like they'd seek out self-driving cars.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#286

Post by logfromblammo »

hyperliner wrote: post #214
Aloha wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Edison who also invented the lightbulb, phonograph, motion pictures, carbon microphone, fuel cell, stock ticker, and alkaline battery.

Edison invented the lightbulb? I thought it was Humphrey Davy or maybe Warren de la Rue.

Also, Joseph Swan and Charles Stearn were the first to bring a practical commercial application to the market.

Edison, if I recall correctly, invented the screw-in electrical connector, the permanently sealed bulb, and a certain type of carbon filament. That's why when Edison refused to license his patents to Westinghouse for the 1893 World's Fair in Chicago, the lights were stoppered instead of permanently sealed, with dual bayonet bases. They burnt out constantly, and that resulted in the contract being underbid, but the power to the fair was Westinghouse alternating current rather than Edison direct current, so it was a minor victory in the current war.

No, Edison did not invent the light bulb. But of all the people who contributed innovations to it, he was probably the best at manipulating public perceptions.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#287

Post by karmacondon »

sjm-lbm wrote: post #179
Aloha wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, Edison who also invented the lightbulb, phonograph, motion pictures, carbon microphone, fuel cell, stock ticker, and alkaline battery.

I'm far from an expert on all of the details, but I find it amusing how similar Edison was to Steve Jobs: both non-engineers that seemed to have enough technical intuition to facilitate an amazing amount of development within their organizations, all while taking (perhaps) more credit than they deserved and running their businesses in occasionally ruthless ways. Yet, somehow it's popular to want to emulate Steve Jobs…

I don't want to derail this thread due to a passing mention of Edison's name, but.

Edison's major inventions represented a difference in kind, not in degree, that drastically changed things for humanity. Think of how different life is as the result of recorded sound, the concept of an electric company or light bulbs for home use.

Job's products were often well designed incremental changes. Apple made computers consumer friendly, but they didn't invent the technology. They didn't invent the global telecommunications network that makes the iPhone useful either.

Edison was an Inventor with a capital I. Jobs was a truly great corporate executive.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#288

Post by CaptSpify »

intopieces wrote: post #207
mbesto wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what about trucking? According to this[0] there are approximately 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States. I hate to go down the route of "machines are going to replace everything", but doesn't autonomous automobiles and AI based routing mean these people effectively get eliminated? http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/

>doesn't autonomous automobiles and AI based routing mean these people effectively get eliminated? Most assuredly and it can't happen soon enough. We need to run headlong into automation, eliminating as many jobs as we can. The sooner we eliminate industries, the sooner we enter the post-labor era.

Although I agree with you, we really need to put the economic frameworks in place as well. We'll eventually get to a fully-automated society, but our current model is already under stress from our current position. Getting there is going to take some serious change.

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#289

Post by Dwolb »

spydum wrote: post #189
mbesto wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what about trucking? According to this[0] there are approximately 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States. I hate to go down the route of "machines are going to replace everything", but doesn't autonomous automobiles and AI based routing mean these people effectively get eliminated? http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/

Given that trains require far less cognitive load to operate than a tractor trailer (sorry engineers!), and yet still require humans to operate.. I wonder if ever? I'm actually curious why trains haven't been automated at this point (in the US at least). It seems like an ideal first step (no navigational issues, retrofit some collision avoidance mechanisms, remote control, etc, and you are up and running).

I think this disaster has something to do with the hold-up on train regulations: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lac-M%C3%A9gantic_rail_disas...

Re: G.M. Invests $500M in Lyft

#290

Post by [deleted] »

spydum wrote: post #189
mbesto wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And what about trucking? According to this[0] there are approximately 3.5 million professional truck drivers in the United States. I hate to go down the route of "machines are going to replace everything", but doesn't autonomous automobiles and AI based routing mean these people effectively get eliminated? http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/truck-drivers-in-the-usa/

Given that trains require far less cognitive load to operate than a tractor trailer (sorry engineers!), and yet still require humans to operate.. I wonder if ever? I'm actually curious why trains haven't been automated at this point (in the US at least). It seems like an ideal first step (no navigational issues, retrofit some collision avoidance mechanisms, remote control, etc, and you are up and running).

[deleted]
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