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Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

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Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#271

Post by dannymick »

potatolicious wrote: post #264
dannymick wrote: post #262

You can talk about valuations or Google becoming a cheeky competitor to Uber but there are some deep economic implications. Millions of cab drivers or anyone who drives for a living will be losing their jobs, as a result of this.

Indeed, and the way we casually throw around "oh they'll find something else to do" is shameful. Many (most!) people affected by this won't be able to retrain into new, better jobs, and the knowledge economy is largely off-limits to many of them anyways. The "retraining" argument is nothing more than a tool for our kind to disingenuously dismiss the negative impacts that come with progress. [edit] and in the time it…

Exactly!

Taxi cab drivers, in NYC, who own their medallions have taken out huge loans in order to obtain the right the drive people in New York City. They can't just "retrain"/find another job when they've got to continue driving 12 hours a day just to make ends meet and pay off their loan.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#272

Post by potatolicious »

dannymick wrote: post #271
potatolicious wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed, and the way we casually throw around "oh they'll find something else to do" is shameful. Many (most!) people affected by this won't be able to retrain into new, better jobs, and the knowledge economy is largely off-limits to many of them anyways. The "retraining" argument is nothing more than a tool for our kind to disingenuously dismiss the negative impacts that come with progress. [edit] and in the time it…

Exactly! Taxi cab drivers, in NYC, who own their medallions have taken out huge loans in order to obtain the right the drive people in New York City. They can't just "retrain"/find another job when they've got to continue driving 12 hours a day just to make ends meet and pay off their loan.

Even the drivers who aren't under loan obligations can't just "retrain" - where are the educational resources? How do they come up with the money to stop working and go back to school?

And even if they are magically able to obtain the funds and time and ability to retrain, what kind of environment do they then face?

Imagine if a taxi driver somehow got their hands on $20K and went to hacker school. What kind of treatment does a hypothetical 40 year-old ex-taxi-driver-turned-programmer face when interviewing for entry level programming jobs, in an industry infamous for its ageism and obsession with pedigree?

None of this adds up. In reality the loss of entire industries means chronic unemployment and under-employment for most. We can prop up the outliers who manage to successfully move to other fields all we want, that doesn't make the poverty and desperation that results any less real.

Now we can argue that the suffering of millions of people is a necessary part of progress, but pretending that these people will just magically fly off to other jobs is a level of classist lunacy that's only tenable for someone who has never stepped outside their little upper class white collar bubble.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#273

Post by Alupis »

maxerickson wrote: post #266
Alupis wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also a lot of unknowns and serious challenges and difficult problems to solve before driver-less vehicles can become "mainstream". Majority (all?) of the road testing has been on fairly controlled roads with "normal" circumstances, ie. not a blizzard with iced roads, hydroplaning, debris falling in front of the vehicle at speed, etc. Longevity of the vehicle - it's doubtful a driverless vehicle purchased toda…

Computers are better at traction control than humans (a computerized traction control system is already mandated in new US vehicles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#Re... ). Longevity might be a problem, but it's reducible to an investment decision, the vehicles don't necessarily have to last 15 years unmodified to be practical.

> Longevity might be a problem, but it's reducible to an investment decision

Vehicles are not "investments" as they diminish in value rapidly after the initial purchase. A 6 month old vehicle is not worth what a brand new one is. The reason we have so many older vehicles on the road (>10-15+ years of age) is simply because majority of citizens cannot afford new vehicles.

Replacing parts in modern-day "dumb" cars is incredibly expensive. If you radio goes out, you're looking at close to $1,000 just in parts and labor. There's few repairs that eat less than $500.

Most vehicle owners neglect their current "dumb" car, let alone a rolling piece of computer equipment.

Vehicles will last fewer years. They will be more expensive (in both initial cost and maintenance). Aged vehicles won't be reliable nor safe to operate.

These are the realities driverless vehicle proponents are simply not considering.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#274

Post by maxerickson »

Alupis wrote: post #273
maxerickson wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Computers are better at traction control than humans (a computerized traction control system is already mandated in new US vehicles: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_stability_control#Re... ). Longevity might be a problem, but it's reducible to an investment decision, the vehicles don't necessarily have to last 15 years unmodified to be practical.

> Longevity might be a problem, but it's reducible to an investment decision Vehicles are not "investments" as they diminish in value rapidly after the initial purchase. A 6 month old vehicle is not worth what a brand new one is. The reason we have so many older vehicles on the road (>10-15+ years of age) is simply because majority of citizens cannot afford new vehicles. Replacing parts in modern-day "dumb" cars is i…

Yeah, sorry, I meant reducible to a capital allocation decision. Which businesses frequently call investment.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#275

Post by JTon »

jlarocco wrote: post #157
softdev12 wrote: post #85

I'm glad that the article highlighted how valuable the mapping information is that Google collects. While Uber probably could still run its current operations without Google map data, there is a much smaller probability that they would be able to run a self-driving car service without a highly accurate mapping product. And to build a mapping product is really difficult and expensive. I was surprised when Google start…

One possibility, is that if they can get good enough inital mapping data, and good enough self-driving cars, the cars could update the mapping data while they're working. That's a lot of trust on the self-driving cars, though.

I think a reporting system could solve that problem. Classify potential changes, and force human eyes before approving all but the most minor updates

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#276

Post by smeyer »

visakanv wrote: post #227
mathattack wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying that Uber wins, just that it has quite a bit of value independently. And similar to Google with search (which learns each time someone searches) there is a reinforcing edge when you're first. The key probably isn't price. I think it will be convenience. If Uber knows to have a car nearby you when you need it, you'll pay a dollar more to save 10 minutes. (Same with Google) I wonder about other entrants.…

From my POV of Tesla's mission, I think Tesla would be happy to bow out of this fight and probably go into battery production/innovation. Giga-factory and all. I think for ME as a consumer, I will prioritize price over convenience unless I'm in a huge rush... so as long as the car arrives in 20-mins ish, I'll pick the cheaper option. But I suppose someone will aim to be hyper-fast, and someone will aim to be hyper-ch…

>so as long as the car arrives in 20-mins ish

I have to say, this is not a use case that any of my friends typically use when using Uber right now. Often it's people going to work or to meet up with other people (20 minutes makes you very late), going to a show or other event (same), or going home after some event/night out (waiting 20 minutes is a pain in the ass, since you're not at home). A 20 minute delay could be acceptable for running errands and such, but I think that is a pretty small fraction of Uber's current market.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#277

Post by raisedbyninjas »

mathattack wrote: post #216
dojomouse wrote: post #197

So much criticism of Google! My question: Why on earth would Google want to cede any significant chunk of the personal transport value stream to Uber - or acquire them at a $40Bil+ valuation - when the main (only?) semi-uniquely valuable thing Uber have (a large network of drivers) is worth approximately zero dollars in a self-driving vehicle scenario. Uber are valuable and effective in a human-driven vehicle model b…

The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone w…

I think we're putting the cart before the horse in who wins the driverless taxi industry. The winner must have a reservation system and a driverless car. One of these problems is hard and Google has clearly made some progress already. The first mover advantage is enormous because when it hits, it will be a media frenzy somewhere between the launch of the iPhone and landing on the moon (the first time). The name attached to all of those media hits will steamroll any competitor.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#278

Post by mathattack »

raisedbyninjas wrote: post #277
mathattack wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone w…

I think we're putting the cart before the horse in who wins the driverless taxi industry. The winner must have a reservation system and a driverless car. One of these problems is hard and Google has clearly made some progress already. The first mover advantage is enormous because when it hits, it will be a media frenzy somewhere between the launch of the iPhone and landing on the moon (the first time). The name attac…

True. It's hard. And the industry may not have a winner. That Uber is at all in contention is a big surprise. It's also what justifies the valuation.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#279

Post by mathattack »

jarek wrote: post #232
mathattack wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not saying that Uber wins, just that it has quite a bit of value independently. And similar to Google with search (which learns each time someone searches) there is a reinforcing edge when you're first. The key probably isn't price. I think it will be convenience. If Uber knows to have a car nearby you when you need it, you'll pay a dollar more to save 10 minutes. (Same with Google) I wonder about other entrants.…

> I wonder about other entrants... Perhaps Apple? Because Apple's other attempts at SaaS are going so well? You'll call an Apple Car but it'll go to Blackberry offices instead.

Apple is getting into automotives - the question is for what. They're hiring engineers away from the other auto firms. I think it's for something bigger than car stereos.

Re: Google Is Developing Its Own Uber Competitor

#280

Post by mathattack »

cabalamat wrote: post #233
mathattack wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The value is only partially in the driver base. Drivers are tangible. But the true value is intangible. There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" as a synonym for "I'll get a taxi, but right what I need it, and it probably will smell better." There is value of having that app on the phone, with credit card # already in place. But perhaps more important is that Uber is building a graph of everyone w…

> There is enormous brand value in thinking "I'll get an Uber" Yes, and there is enormous value in "I'll Google it", but that doesn't stop people from using other search engines (and online services) as soon as a better one comes along, because the cost to the user of switching is small. Name recognition does not, IMO, make Uber worth $40bn.

It's not just name recognition - it's the data, and already being the first app on someone's phone to do the task.
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