Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden • Hacker News Board

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#271

Post by akirk » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 5:30 PM UTC

skue wrote: post #64

There is another big reason why Snowden may have chosen HK. A few months ago the HK high court ruled that the process for applying for asylum needs overhaul, and until that happens all extradition proceedings for asylum seekers are on hold. So Snowden simply needs to apply for asylum in HK to significantly delay things: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific... I haven't seen much coverage of th…

I was about to ask, how he would deal with staying, as you can't simply choose a country but must conform to its visa regulations. He might be there as a tourist for now but I would think that cannot do so forever.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#272

Post by rhizome » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 5:50 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #257

rhizome wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like movies, do you?

Taiwan Would that do? Yep, I think it would. Perhaps even just the substantial delay of new arms sales. It's meant as a black and white example, but it proves my point. There are countless things the US could give China that are worth a lot more to China than Snowden is. Your comment is comical in its lack of realism. And that's comical because you're alluding to me being the unrealistic one. In reality, politics is…

If it's that simple, you'll have no trouble coming up with historical examples of the mechanism you describe having operated with the simplicity you assert.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#273

Post by yread » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 5:59 PM UTC

tokenadult wrote: post #268

yread wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Snowden is not proficient in Chinese, no way. (I am, by test.) Sorry, if it sounds personal but I have to ask: How do you know he's not proficient and what does your proficiency have to do with it?

Sorry, if it sounds personal but I have to ask: How do you know he's not proficient and what does your proficiency have to do with it? I have a basis of knowledge about how language proficiency is defined (the federal government in the United States has a standard rating scale of foreign language proficiency, as do most other countries with an active diplomatic corps and military alliances with other countries) and I…

> I know how much time it takes in specialized training programs and in-country to become proficient in Chinese

wow. Err... aren't there other ways how to learn a language than government sanctioned programs? How about attending lectures in the evenings and a Chinese speaking friend (not that unbelievable in Hawaii).

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#274

Post by wilecoyote » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 6:09 PM UTC

Jack000 wrote: post #203

glurgh wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not being entirely serious (hard to be, given the little we know) but I'm not being sarcastic, either. Some of Snowden's behaviour has been pretty odd. A variety of interpretations are possible. One is that he's a mastermind media manipulator/intelligence operator/exploiter of immigration laws/meticulous planner of a fugitive. This idea has some traction on HN and outside but I'm pretty skeptical of it. The inter…

I think the most salient point is that he needed to go to a country where - the US did not have significant influence - could not be strong-armed into giving him up - would cause significant problems if he were taken without consent (or killed outright - not implausible, given the things we've seen in Pakistan) China is a fairly logical choice - it's as far as you can run from the US in geopolitical terms. Hong Kong…

The other most obvious point is that on top of all external considerations he had some particular friend or resource in HK. Having left the hotel, where is he staying now? If he got there and then later wished to go to Iceland, would he have anyone beyond what popular sympathy drums up to help him?

Even if Hong Kong has lots of practical concerns because of its relationship with China it was obviously going to provoke obvious questions about idealistic / vs ulterior motives, a big negative I would think for someone acting from idealistic motivations and knowing from experience how much that would be questioned.

I'm inclined to agree with Glurgh's comment and Occam's razor -- he's surely bright, but doesn't necessarily seem to be some type of master manipulator / strategist to have ended up in Hong Kong at this point, good cell phone access aside.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#275

Post by wilecoyote » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 6:22 PM UTC

glurgh wrote: post #245

Jack000 wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess my point is that there would be severe ramifications if the US deployed its military to retrieve Snowden within Chinese territory. Whether they'd do it or not is not the issue - Snowden is a whistle blower who's had a peak inside the system, and is paranoid (perhaps justifiably given what he was leaking) about his safety. We're only trying to explain his choice, not whether it was a good one. edit: also, the…

I don't want to bury you in some dreary repeat wall of text so I sort of combine-replied to you in the response to the upthread poster. As to the quality of his choices, I think that's the actual interesting thing - not whether we can come up with some semi-plausible theory for them. Are his choices a part of some grand strategy (like the article we're discussing seems to suggest) or are they haphazard? To me, the ev…

I think this is spot on, both as the interesting question and as the answer that seems most likely given what's been reported.

Defend ideals and the civil liberties that cost so much to achieve, but China or a controlled territory seems a terrible place to make that stand.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#276

Post by jessaustin » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 6:27 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #269

tomkarlo wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So if China solves its three biggest, most intractable problems, it'll be a great place to live? No problem.

No problem, as long as you're not an ethnic or religious minority.

You're right, the USA has always been a wonderful place for those folks.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#277

Post by jessaustin » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 6:42 PM UTC

anigbrowl wrote: post #92

panacea wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden? The country that's trying to extradite Assange?

For rape, not espionage.

Even if he's as pure as the driven snow, I don't think Snowden can assume no one will ever trump up a rape charge against him.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#278

Post by jessaustin » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 6:45 PM UTC

toyg wrote: post #71

akg_67 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe there is any country in the world, except Russia and China, that will not kowtow to US when pressured. Snowden made a very smart choice by going to HK.

Can we add Ecuador to that list? Say what you will about the current administration, they are not kowtowing to the US or Britain even under a lot of pressure.

Sure Ecuador are very independent now. It would only take one election (perhaps with extensive foreign ad buys), however, for their policies in this area to change drastically. I don't see that happening soon in China or Russia.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#279

Post by jessaustin » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 6:50 PM UTC

adventured wrote: post #257

rhizome wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like movies, do you?

Taiwan Would that do? Yep, I think it would. Perhaps even just the substantial delay of new arms sales. It's meant as a black and white example, but it proves my point. There are countless things the US could give China that are worth a lot more to China than Snowden is. Your comment is comical in its lack of realism. And that's comical because you're alluding to me being the unrealistic one. In reality, politics is…

I'm sure Jim Clapper would support your novel scheme, but fortunately there are still some adults somewhere in the chain of command. Everyone whose salary isn't dependent on believing the prevailing security paranoia knows that Snowden (or even a hundred Snowdens) is not a threat to USA interests. Letting Taiwan and its massive manufacturing base suffer for this sort of political bullshit would be a major threat to those interests.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#280

Post by jessaustin » Mon, Jun 17, 2013, 6:53 PM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #135

pg wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to resort to insults.

HN has been especially frustrating for the last 2 weeks. Maybe, instead of hoping that people will maintain perfect civility throughout a nonstop stream of political discussions, something could instead be done to ratchet back the politics on HN?

Perhaps reality has been especially frustrating?

Although yeah, implying that blacks in the American South in the mid-20th C could rely on the justice system is ridiculous enough to force me to agree with rayiner for once.