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What will be left for us to work on?

normaltech.ai

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Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#271

Post by theshrike79 »

ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #47
Metricon wrote: post #8

I have been writing software for over 40 years and have had a long time interest in and some work in AI over that time. I wouldn’t say this gives me any more prognosticating power about how all of this is ultimately going to go, but I believe we're soon nearing an area of plateauing; whether that's because the science itself is plateauing or the intervention of governments is going to force plateau it. So if things c…

Just FYI, if you know much about the medical field, nurses tend to do most of the actual work, with highly experienced nurses actually taking up the mantle for many duties often done by doctors. Nurses are in far higher demand, than doctors. Your analogy isn’t necessarily wrong, but it might ignore the extreme importance of nurses. Many medical facilities are only staffed with permanent nurses, with doctors helicopte…

> So lots of jobs for nurses.

Exactly. (Experienced) Nurses can do ALL of the basic stuff we currently use doctors for. They diagnose patients with a glance (not by going to medical school but with raw lived experience on the field), administer medications etc.

And in some countries (I think the UK?) they are allowed to do more of the doctor-y stuff to free Actual Doctors to do the stuff they studied for years for.

The same thing will come to the software industry. All of the basic CRUD HTTP API crap can be done by "nurses", just run of the mill domain experts can wire up a basic UI + API + DB -combo for a product MVP with AI assistance.

And with a "doctor" (more experienced programmer/architect) guiding the process, the quality will be slightly above average. Not artisanal excellence, but how many services actually need that, really?

I think I've mentioned this before, but the only ones whose jobs are at risk at the moment are the mid-tier programmers. Either by skill or experience.

Juniors can learn to work with AIs and easily become the "nurses" of programming.

Programmers with decades of experience in multiple fields can either go full the artisanal-no-AI route and do the things AI's suck at or do AI assisted programming, which isn't really that different from working with a team.

But the midtier people who are too well paid to be "nurses" and not experienced enough to work as "doctors" might find it hard to find a place for themselves.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#272

Post by theshrike79 »

thisisit wrote: post #158
Metricon wrote: post #8

I have been writing software for over 40 years and have had a long time interest in and some work in AI over that time. I wouldn’t say this gives me any more prognosticating power about how all of this is ultimately going to go, but I believe we're soon nearing an area of plateauing; whether that's because the science itself is plateauing or the intervention of governments is going to force plateau it. So if things c…

Current discussions is like deja vu. One time there was hype around of no code/low code development using PowerApps, Zapier etc. The sell was - Creating your apps was easier than before. You don't need to know any programming language. You don't need IT. You have a GUI and just drag and drop and visual your apps. Just fill the fields and voila your app is ready. The criticism of the approach was that low codes apps m…

You know the people who create elaborate Zapier/n8n/excel automations?

Those are the people who will get the boost from AI coding. They have the "lazy" mindset every good programmer has. You do a thing 3 times manually and then your brain goes, nnnope. This needs to be automated. And you get to work.

With the n8n's of the world they can get something done, limited by what they offer. Same with Excel, there's a limit to what you can do with macros and VBA.

But with an AI agent there really is no limit. I have seen first hand the things domain experts can do when just given a Claude seat and the permission to build stuff. Things I could've easily built, but never would've found out are actually needed.

And doing the same thing with a programming team and project managers in the loop with the domain expert being the product owner would've taken months and cost six figures in salaries.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#274

Post by mike_hearn »

latraviata wrote: post #220
mike_hearn wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How many man-hours go into various parts of the advertising distribution chain? Not that much. AI is already heavily automating advertising and has been for a long time. And a lot of activity that was previously exposed to untargeted passive advertising - like TV - has shifted to mediums that don't have any, like Netflix (for most subscribers). And as you note, advertising isn't useless. It's how people find out ab…

Alphabet and Meta, two of the largest firms to ever exist by market capitalization, revenues and profits, are largely sustained by their online advertisement products. I don't think your assessment that this is mostly automated stands in the face of the number of man-hours both of these companies purchase each year.

But their ad tech/sales departments are relatively small compared to the whole company. Most Alphabet/Meta employees are subsidized by ads, not working on them directly.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#275

Post by sarchertech »

mejutoco wrote: post #262
sarchertech wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Many medical facilities are only staffed with permanent nurses, with doctors helicoptering in, from time to time, to take care of specific duties that may require certain licenses, or provide specific advice. Maybe for a very loose definition of medical facilities that includes assisted living facilities. But for example in an ER, nurses come and go with very rapid turnover and it’s common to staff with temporary t…

> Many medical facilities are only staffed with permanent nurses, with doctors helicoptering in, from time to time, to take care of specific duties that may require certain licenses, or provide specific advice. > Maybe for a very loose definition of medical facilities that includes assisted living facilities. Or midwives, for unimportant things like giving birth /s obviously

Nurse midwives have to go back to grad school after becoming a nurse and are no longer operating as nurses. Despite containing the word nurse it is a completely different job.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#276

Post by sarchertech »

theshrike79 wrote: post #271
ChrisMarshallNY wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just FYI, if you know much about the medical field, nurses tend to do most of the actual work, with highly experienced nurses actually taking up the mantle for many duties often done by doctors. Nurses are in far higher demand, than doctors. Your analogy isn’t necessarily wrong, but it might ignore the extreme importance of nurses. Many medical facilities are only staffed with permanent nurses, with doctors helicopte…

> So lots of jobs for nurses. Exactly. (Experienced) Nurses can do ALL of the basic stuff we currently use doctors for. They diagnose patients with a glance (not by going to medical school but with raw lived experience on the field), administer medications etc. And in some countries (I think the UK?) they are allowed to do more of the doctor-y stuff to free Actual Doctors to do the stuff they studied for years for. T…

> Exactly. (Experienced) Nurses can do ALL of the basic stuff we currently use doctors for.

That’s not true. They do completely different jobs. Some experienced nurses could do some things that we currently require doctors to do.

Other experienced nurses have problems doing basic dosage calculation.

The main difference that addition to med school being much more selective, rigorous, and longer, residency is regimented, standardized, supervised, and evaluated in a way that nursing experience isn’t.

There are entire teams of doctors who spend hours every month discussing each resident’s progress (I know because my wife runs the resident program for her department and I overhear the discussions in the background).

You might have one nurse who worked in the ER for 5 years who can diagnose appendicitis as well as a doctor, but another who worked there for 20 years who couldn’t even begin to do that.

And since diagnosing appendicitis is not part of their job description, both could have absolutely stellar performance reviews.

And the nurse who can diagnose appendicitis, might be terrible at other tasks normally handled by a doctor.

The solution for this is to put them through more standardized on the job training/evaluation, but you’ve just reinvented residency at that point. That’s the thing people don’t understand about residency, it’s as much evaluation as it is training.

No amount of on the job experience is equivalent because job experience isn’t rigorously regimented, and evaluated.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#277

Post by Suzuran »

drukenemo wrote: post #270
Suzuran wrote: post #223

What will be left for us to work on? Nothing. The wealthy own all of the infrastructure and we are already being priced out of the means of building our own. The proverbial ladder has been pulled up. When the wealthy no longer have need of us and we are no longer worth the resources we consume, they will give us death. All we can do is hope it is a peaceful and painless death instead of a violent and painful death.

We need to be responsible for the things we write. You write with a certainty of a gloomy scenario, even though you can’t predict the future. Saying hopeless things like that is not only bad for your psyche, but can also inflict mental damage onto others.

Funny, I've also been lectured in the past but the other direction. I was judged guilty of being unjustifiably optimistic and giving people false hope which will only harm them in the future.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#278

Post by Forgeties79 »

sarchertech wrote: post #245
hattmall wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's basically a formality now to get a prescription for what you read on WebMD. Every Insurance has telemedicine, you just call, read the symptom list and get the prescription. Some even let you just email. There's a doctor or at least person with subscribing ability in the loop, but they are barely doing more than rubber stamping hundreds of requests per day.

Only for less regulated drugs and for drugs with minimal side effects, or drugs that are relatively cheap. Mostly for drugs that should probably be OTC anyway. Try doing that for a narcotic, or for an expensive biologic. You could always lie to a doctor about your symptoms.

Idk man I was in the EU recently as a US citizen. One 15min call about my sore throat and dude gave me not just Tylenol and antibiotics (not too wild) but also oral steroids which was beyond overkill for what I had - very rare moment where I didn’t do what the doctor ordered. I was very surprised to see that prescribed. They didn’t even recommend nexium or anything to protect my stomach.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#279

Post by sarchertech »

Forgeties79 wrote: post #278
sarchertech wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only for less regulated drugs and for drugs with minimal side effects, or drugs that are relatively cheap. Mostly for drugs that should probably be OTC anyway. Try doing that for a narcotic, or for an expensive biologic. You could always lie to a doctor about your symptoms.

Idk man I was in the EU recently as a US citizen. One 15min call about my sore throat and dude gave me not just Tylenol and antibiotics (not too wild) but also oral steroids which was beyond overkill for what I had - very rare moment where I didn’t do what the doctor ordered. I was very surprised to see that prescribed. They didn’t even recommend nexium or anything to protect my stomach.

If you’re youngish and healthy a short course of an oral steroid is very low risk and doesn’t require a PPI. And it’s indicated for severe throat pain.

There’s nothing wild about that prescription.

Re: What will be left for us to work on?

#280

Post by Forgeties79 »

sarchertech wrote: post #279
Forgeties79 wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk man I was in the EU recently as a US citizen. One 15min call about my sore throat and dude gave me not just Tylenol and antibiotics (not too wild) but also oral steroids which was beyond overkill for what I had - very rare moment where I didn’t do what the doctor ordered. I was very surprised to see that prescribed. They didn’t even recommend nexium or anything to protect my stomach.

If you’re youngish and healthy a short course of an oral steroid is very low risk and doesn’t require a PPI. And it’s indicated for severe throat pain. There’s nothing wild about that prescription.

1) not that young and 2) definitely not “severe throat pain.” Drip + mild sore throat that went a few too many days with discolored phlegm. Clearly bacterial infection, clearly needed antibiotics, but definitely not severe
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