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I love LLMs, I hate hype

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Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#271

Post by voidUpdate »

LugosFergus wrote: post #151

Since no one is talking about it: T2 isn’t about machines taking over the world. That has happened (or will happen). But humans eventually defeat the machines. Skynet is trying to prevent that by killing John Connor. That’s what the movie is about. I suppose it’s also about John searching for a parental figure through the T800. He doesn’t get that through is foster parents and his estranged mother. Anyway, I don’t th…

I mean all of the Terminator films are essentially "Machines took over the world. John Connor will eventually defeat the machines. The leader of the machines sent a machine back in time to prevent John Connor defeating the machines"

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#272

Post by darkwater »

havercosine wrote: post #269
arscan wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is going to end up capturing all this value being generated is going to be very interesting. Back in 1980, who’d have thought MS would capture the majority of the value from PCs over the next 3 decades, and not IBM?

It is honestly hard to predict. We are currently in everyone is building website/mobile app/gadget era of AI. Very few places are questioning what is worth building. Short term, we can compare this to 2-3 recent (mini) revolutions: internet, mobile, cloud. Then the answer is somewhat predictable and (somewhat sad personally). Companies owning the main distribution of intelligence (big labs) or distribution of the app…

> we can compare this to 2-3 recent (mini) revolutions: internet, mobile, cloud.

I would not put "cloud" at the same level as Internet and mobile. Cloud is just a layer on top of hardware that in the end makes almost no difference for Internet to exist and operates. Said differently: I doubt the world would be different nowadays without "the cloud". But it would definitely be different without Internet or mobile (smart)phones.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#273

Post by zombot »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

> Both OpenAI and Anthropic are trying to figure that out now.

That's a little late now, they should have tried to figure that out at the beginning. But then, it wasn't their own money they were burning in the meantime.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#274

Post by madaxe_again »

SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

I’d pay $1,000/mo for the best model - but it would have to be good enough that I could reliably concierge out my existence to it. I spend way too much of my time wading through a diffuse mire of admin, and if I could farm that out for that little, and have it done and done well, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#275

Post by xboxnolifes »

deeplowdock wrote: post #93
Razengan wrote: post #25

I recently realized, that ever since I've had AI to "talk" to, I haven't had a stuck or "downtime" moment; there's always something to at least brainstorm on. In the past when I couldn't figure out something, I'd take a break for a couple days, while going through Google → Stack Overflow → Reddit, and by the time you got to that point you rarely got useful answers, usually either trolls or silence. Now I can just ask…

I am calling your bullshit out and asking to provide even a singular example where you got 'trolled' seeking software development help.

New to the internet?

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#276

Post by ahoka »

SV_BubbleTime wrote: post #228
andy99 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The funny thing about Fable, is we all but know it will be obsolete in a month or two. Between their embargo shenanigans (which IMO they could have avoided just by not pretending it was dangerous) and continuing to give access, whatever marginal advantage it had was essentially wasted. It would have been an interesting experiment to charge more for it right away and see what the market would bear, rather than tease i…

>(which IMO they could have avoided just by not pretending it was dangerous) Best marketing in a long time though. They fucking called it Mythos and built mythical claims about it. I mean… really hats off to the PR team.

Maybe they have secretly hired Kojima?

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#277

Post by zombot »

andy99 wrote: post #121
SwellJoe wrote: post #81

This line: "this is my main argument against the valuation of frontier labs. It’s not that AI won’t create that much value, it’s that they won’t capture it." That is a very astute and concise way to explain everything about how the frontier labs are behaving and how they're trying to push more people to pay token rates for the best models. At the current subscription prices ($100 or $200 a month for a generous, thoug…

The funny thing about Fable, is we all but know it will be obsolete in a month or two. Between their embargo shenanigans (which IMO they could have avoided just by not pretending it was dangerous) and continuing to give access, whatever marginal advantage it had was essentially wasted. It would have been an interesting experiment to charge more for it right away and see what the market would bear, rather than tease i…

I suspect they were attempting to move it away from the open market into government contracts where they would have been able to charge more than what the open market would bear.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#278

Post by ipdashc »

Capricorn2481 wrote: post #223
ipdashc wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

These comments are always interesting to me (genuinely! no shade) because it feels like we're on different sides of the Internet. Almost everything I see about LLMs is somewhere between uneasy acceptance, skepticism, and outright hate. Even those of us who admit they're impressively capable usually caveat it with "... but our jobs and society are cooked, aren't they?" The "hype onslaught" is, like... Something I know…

I have read hundreds of comments on this site alone saying you need to become a prompt engineer now, regardless of your profession, or be left behind. There are a lot of companies with "AI mandates" right now, essentially asking their employees to... Do something with AI. Doesn't matter what

> on this site alone

Even here, it feels like we're on different websites. Most comments I see on HN are between the "uneasy acceptance" and "skepticism" levels. The "left behind" rhetoric I see made fun of more often than used wholeheartedly. Perhaps we just click on different comment sections?

The "AI mandates", yeah, I'd count that as hype (though even that in its aimlessness feels more like an admission that they don't know what to do and are just trying to fit in to look cool, than outright hype, but still). I'm just lucky to not work at a place that has them.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#279

Post by bayindirh »

worik wrote: post #250
bayindirh wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Developing scientific software is disproportionately hard though. Making it usable, useful and keeping it updated is even harder. There's two reasons for that. The math is generally very unorthodox and alien for a seasoned developer, and software development practices are equally alien for the scientist who can understand and evolve the math behind it. I have written a boundary element method evaluator for my Ph.D. n…

> If somebody doesn't share the same passion, it's almost impossible for someone to take and carry it forward. True, five years ago. The advent of coding agents has changed everything, and often make modifying somebody else's bespoke software practical

If your software is CRUDe or has many alternatives/examples on the web, altering it with an LLM is easy, since the model already knows what you're working on.

When the math you're working on bespoke, and the optimizations you do are intricate, these models and agents fall flat on their face, because there's no "a set of widely used optimizations" (i.e. an open repository of very nicely optimized code for cases X, Y and Z) to apply on top of the codebase.

By bespoke, I mean, there's only one academic paper written about it, and it's written by me and my supervisor.

Re: I love LLMs, I hate hype

#280

Post by somenameforme »

darkwater wrote: post #270
somenameforme wrote: post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a contemporary comparison is OpenAI's DALL-E. Predating but foreshadowing LLMs they went closed source and tried to monetize it, but within a few years the entire concept just fell apart. Now you can download free open source software, that works better than DALL-E and runs fine on a plain old video card, and for orders of magnitude lower cost. I think we can start to see the outlines of this happening with L…

> Now you can download free open source software, that works better than DALL-E and runs fine on a plain old video card, and for orders of magnitude lower cost. Ok, I completely missed that one. Can you point me in the right direction?

Sure, for a balance between usability and power I'd recommend fooocus. [1] AmuseAI [2] is an alternative that is extremely plug-and-play which can be especially handy with AMD hardware, but is a bit less powerful and also censored by default. ComfyUI [3] is an advanced tool for rich customization and what not. However it's anything but comfy if you're not already quite knowledgeable in this domain - I would not recommend it for a first tool.

[1] - https://github.com/lllyasviel/Fooocus

[2] - https://github.com/saddam213/AmuseAI

[3] - https://github.com/comfy-org/comfyui

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