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Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
271–280 of 300 posts
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's the total picture of SpaceX, right. Does SpaceX as a whole make financial sense? No. Everyone knows the SpaceX "value story": AI means that a company that makes a minus 5 billion per year really makes plus 200 billion per year! IN SPACE! But, uh, about those Space parts? Surely those are cashflow positive ... right? RIGHT? Well, no. SpaceX it is the 50th or so rocket company. The previous ones did not fail bec…
>“50th rocket company, previous ones failed on financials not tech” Its Falcon 9 has flown 667 times to orbit with a 99.55% success rate. SpaceX isn't like the other rocket companies and it's pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the metrics objectively. Not in technology or in finances. >"minus $5B/year but AI/Space makes it +$200B” $18.7B revenue in 2025. Starlink alone was $11.4B The comparison to Iridium isn't ev…
> $18.7B revenue in 2025. Starlink alone was $11.4B
But ... you do realize how you have to use those numbers right? SpaceX owns Starlink. So let's do some basic accounting.
For ease of calculation I call upon the Math Gods to change $11.4B to $12B.
SPCX -> Starlink $12B
Starlink -> SPCX $12B
SPCX uses 50% more than that amount to launch the rockets (because SPCX has a negative margin (if you include debt service + research), after with 50% SPCX would have less than $5B loss). Hence:
SPCX -> $18B (to whatever SPCX does to build rockets)
In other words: your fabulous "Starlink alone was $11.4B" really means SpaceX lost $18B (a bit less) and gained starlink shares, which it already owned ... in other words: that revenue represents a $18B loss for the company.
This is the same problem people have with AI spending, but there the math is 100x more complicated.
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#273Earlier quoted context omitted.
> answer seems to be "we don't, he's on the board of a competiting AI company" That seems like a good reason to listen to him? He is prominently placed in the field. Has a lot to lose by knowingly making false statements in public about a competitor. And has an incentive (and the resources with which) to dig deeply into them in a way e.g. a trash-talking YouTuber does not. He has his set of biases. But Board member a…
> He is prominently placed in the field. No he isn't. He's the LinkedIn guy. That's his only success. Good for him but the LinkedIn founder doesn't know anything baout AI. > Has a lot to lose by knowingly making false statements in public about a competitor. The article ignores the conflict of interest - Hoffman is introduced as: > Reid Hoffman has watched the AI industry from virtually every vantage point—as a found…
FWIW, leaving aside his professional activities (such as the fact that he's currently the co-founder of two AI startups) he is probably the first billionaire to create an "AI clone" of himself, complete with a deepfake video avatar and voice-cloning, trained on all the content he has ever produced (books, articles, interviews, videos):
https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1ccol5y/reid_h...
The interviews are not real-time and are heavily edited, of course, but he's probably one of the few tech execs who've spent so much money and time to personally explore AI.
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is he less relevant than Elon Musk? He co-founded linkedin a platform every one knows. Elon Musk invented the Cybertruck and has a weird cult following through Tesla. i mean Elon Musk called some of his kids this: X Æ A-Xii Musk, Exa Dark Sideræl Musk and Techno Mechanicus Musk What opinion should i give more value?
If you are going to include a speaker's child-naming prowess as a factor in assigning value to an opinion, you might as well just flip a coin, go with vibes, go with the one that matches your biases, or all three. When I was a child my brother taught me to always consider the incentives, especially the monetary ones, of a speaker. 'Follow the money'. So, in this case neither Musk nor Hoffman would get much traction w…
It shows longterm persistency and character or in case of Elon Musk the opposite.
Together with all his wins and fails, it clearly shows that Elon Musk not an genius but more lucky opportunist. For sure not an idiot of course.
Follow the money is for sure a good point though
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
How is he less relevant than Elon Musk? He co-founded linkedin a platform every one knows. Elon Musk invented the Cybertruck and has a weird cult following through Tesla. i mean Elon Musk called some of his kids this: X Æ A-Xii Musk, Exa Dark Sideræl Musk and Techno Mechanicus Musk What opinion should i give more value?
>He co-founded linkedin That alone should be justifiable cause for exile from society.
I think its fun. Whenever i log into it on a friday and a recruiter writes me, i tell them my dream salary and to 99% they are polite, say sorry for their 'low offer' and tell me they will get back when they have something like it.
And if they ever send me something interesting, i still could apply.
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
>“50th rocket company, previous ones failed on financials not tech” Its Falcon 9 has flown 667 times to orbit with a 99.55% success rate. SpaceX isn't like the other rocket companies and it's pretty obvious to anyone who looks at the metrics objectively. Not in technology or in finances. >"minus $5B/year but AI/Space makes it +$200B” $18.7B revenue in 2025. Starlink alone was $11.4B The comparison to Iridium isn't ev…
> $18.7B revenue in 2025. Starlink alone was $11.4B But ... you do realize how you have to use those numbers right? SpaceX owns Starlink. So let's do some basic accounting. For ease of calculation I call upon the Math Gods to change $11.4B to $12B. SPCX -> Starlink $12B Starlink -> SPCX $12B SPCX uses 50% more than that amount to launch the rockets (because SPCX has a negative margin (if you include debt service + re…
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Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I don't think theyre special Where did you get that from the comment you replied to? They merely pointed out you couldn't paint everyone with the same brush, which is pretty much the definition of 'not special'.
I didn't. The point was that that amount of money turns most people into assholes. Many of them donate money but it doesnt make them any less of an asshole.
maybe it doesn't turn them into assholes. maybe it just frees them to act naturally.
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#278Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not commenting on Reid specifically but on the other hand I don't understand why we should listen to the Tech CEO's / Founders about their opinions on the tech they are selling .
Why wouldn't you listen to a company on why their product solves the problem you're having?
So, the multinational company is probably better at lying than the average person is at discerning lies.
There’s an argument that the best approach is to totally ignore what the vendor says and listen to trusted experts instead. If you’re buying a car, say, you’re probably not listening to what car manufacturers say. Or, at least, you shouldn’t; you will be mislead. If you happen to be an expert on cars it might be no harm, but otherwise probably best ignore them.
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've embraced it, and I'm coding faster than all my colleagues, some days I open more PRs than the rest of my team combined.
Are you earning more money or working fewer hours? Are you eating healthier meals, with better sleeping quality? Because all I read is that you are generating more money for the shareholders.
The true american dream. Generating as much money for shareholders as humanly possible and then going home to your rented apartment to be surveilled by AI companies finding ever more intrusive ways to shove ads in your face.
Re: Reid Hoffman says SpaceX 'not an AI company', xAI 'complete train wreck'
#280Okay, random dude says something -- everything completely behind paywall. Guess it wasn't important.
Okay, nevermind, I was able to view it on mobile.