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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#271

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

> My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and compute, leaving Alphabet to have a monopoly on AI, at least in the west.

It's the other way around (but the result would be the same): Alphabet has no need to make a 100x exit for the investors, and so can offer the service at cost + %markup, while Anthropic and OpenAI are VC funded, meaning that they need to show 10x - 100x exit for the investors.

IOW, there is no moat, Alphabet would have market-related pricing while VC-backed corps cannot offer market-related pricing.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#272

In the last week Alphabet has positioned itself to go on the offense, going after exccess liquidity and excess compute. I fear that OpenAi and Anthropic would not be able to compete against an adveserial Alphabet which owns it's own models, hardware, large corpus of data, talent and network effects. My prediction is that OpenAI and Anthropic will eventually be crushed by Alphabet as they run out of investment and com…

Fun idea, but they may be better competition coming Competing with Google with different teams, models, and business strategies. Im sure google will also be happy selling the adds they put in their models for 1/3 of the revenue.

The scary thing for google is if the AI companies start moving into ad targeting and open sales portals.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apple has completely dropped the ball Apple has sat out a capital-allocation shitshow. Its investors and likely customers are better off for their patience.

Jury is out on that one -- will have to see what happens in the next couple of years. I don't think you can say better off with full confidence right now. Very possible you could say that in the future..

> I don't think you can say better off with full confidence right now.

Of course we can - they managed to avoid spending 100s of billions while still giving their users AI...

There is no future in which the entire world is beholden to the current VC-backed companies for AI. IOW, there is no moat.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#274

It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public. Their businesses aren't ready for that kind of quarter-by-quarter grinding scrutiny. It is going to be bad when their lockup periods end.

> It is increasingly look like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX (xAI) are going to burst their own AI bubble by going public.

They don't really have a choice - there is a finite amount of money in the open market, and the first one to IPO is going to get the lion's share of that money.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#275

The cheap money for subsidizing tokens has begun to run out. Not all gone, yet, but it's getting harder to pretend the chatbots are cost-effective to run. Soon, they're going to need to tap a larger pool for money: Everyone's retirement accounts.

The numbers are public now, this is obviously false

> The numbers are public now,

Where?

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So are you short the market?

crashes aren't shortable unless you know exactly when they are going to happen

Which is great because the parent comment provides a precise timeline.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#277
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had universal childcare until we converted single-income families into dual-income families in order to make the boomers who they bought houses from rich.

Women want their own income stream because of the innumerable ways men get into trouble. If her man gets into trouble, she wants a plan B, for her and her children. I don't think anyone was thinking about how that would prop up the housing market 30 years later.

That's a nice story, but the truth is when women first entered the workforce in meaningful numbers, it was primarily unmarried women. Society strongly expected women to leave the labor force once married, and businesses actively banned married women from working

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one has full agency over their life. The men who generally work harder, longer, and for more of their lives, that are shorter as a result, don't have fully agency. Having a boss isn't agency.

Women couldn't have bank accounts, in my lifetime.

Ah, money. What life is all about.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't argue the same. My parents love using ChatGPT, asking it all kinds of questions. My mom discovered Claude and helps her immensely with her job - where she would have to take it home and work a few hours to be able to finish the tasks on her computer, as her company that still uses Office 98, now Claude does it in 5 minutes. They fixed so many random issues using it, it is insane. My dad had a bike issue wh…

Maybe I downplayed it too much but I really think this is still "in distribution" (we always have to remember that we are tech savy people and we influence the people that surround us). I see the value, but in my opinion it's not a generational opportunity, but a great acceleration. We are treating it like generational opportunity. That's why I say "everyone know there will be a crash, but noone knows how big that wi…

It is still "in distribution", that is why when its "distributed" properly, it will surely add much, much more value to the economy.

But it is a generational opportunity - we can remove a lot of barriers that come with knowledge, lack of it, access to it and more. Someone can easily get pretty on point medical advice without access to doctors. Get specific engineering advice without engaging with those engineers. We can apply common sense or specific knowledge on scale - in a world where about 50% of people have IQ under 100 and access to knowledge is gated behind lines and payments, this has a huge chance ot improve their lives.

And there is the whole shadow inference economy - just for example, a few corporations I have worked with in insurance and telecommunications have been slowly introducing it inside their workflows and their data tooling, being able to clean data, tag it, analyse it in a way that before would probably cost them billons in human costs.

One of them has a database going back to the 80's, with data being formatted and reformatted in all shapes and sizes, coming back all the way from paper records for some of their oldest clients. Cleaning this up was unimaginable before as a "something we can do in a day" project, but was more of a "possible with insane costs". This lead to all further activity being shaped by decisions someone made 40+ years ago, details being lost, data being thrown away or saved in random notes.

And there's millions of companies like that all around the world, which can now do "impossible" and become much more efficient and productive for a much cheaper price and in way less time than ever.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#280
post #25
post #15

Growing worry I have are the dozens of newly minted corporate elites that will continue to wreck havoc on the tech industry mandating their golden paths while America still lacks medicare for all, college for all, and universal childcare. If you think Sam Altman is bad for the industry, imagine what 200 of him will be like!

I was wondering about this the other week. Is there a chart, somewhere, like a family tree, of what the Apple and Microsoft stock "ordinary millionaires" went on to do?

https://imgur.com/HMCnQ86
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