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New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

randalolson.com

271–280 of 320 posts

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#271
post #150

The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security fo…

We're building like mad in our town. Have been for years. Thousands and thousands of new units. Prices ain't budging. It's odd.

That just shows how little housing there is out there.

Real estate pricing is far stickier than, say, stock prices. But that's also why it's super important to build before prices rise, because prices are probably not going to fall, they will at best stay sub inflationary.

Additionally, in the US many many people are locked in to their current mortgage. They have a super low interest rate on a 30 year mortgage, but interest rates are many points higher now, so if they switch to a new mortgage the can no longer afford as much house as they price they could sell their current house for.

That lock in and lack of places to live and move to also creates a higher demand when there are a few places that are built. "Thousands" doesn't mean much to me without comparing to the total number of existing houses, but there should be a minimum of 1% and maybe 2-3% of existing houses being built all throughout the nation. Yet most areas are not building that much if at all.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#272

The story here isn't college grads as much as young people in general. We are eating our young. We stopped building new housing, which turns housing into a transfer of wealth from those who don't have it (the young) to those who have been holding it (the not young). We have eliminated entry level positions, saddled college graduates with massive amounts of debt by defunding universities, and created great security fo…

Could be just that USA is trying to reindustrialize and need more people that can do stuff with hands? - the smallest population cohort is entering workforce - Trump and Covid slowed down immigration - high interest rate slows down R&D

Biden tried to reindustrialize and was doing a great job of it, but that was all cancelled.

I don't see a single effort to reindustrialize now, and in fact the tariffing of equipment and chaotic signaling of policy has been a major impediment to any reindustrialization.

And finally there have been several efforts to specifically discourage the sort of information sharing from highly industrial countries such as the Georgia Hyundai raid that was meant to stop knowledge transfer for manufacturing. The world is getting the message:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Georgia_Hyundai_plant_imm...

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As popular as this narrative is it's all revisionist propaganda intended to distract from the actual culprits. "We" never stopped building houses. What we stopped building is 1k sq ft starter homes and made manufactured housing uneconomical, thereby effectively removing the bottom rung on the ladder of home ownership. These weren't consensus-based decisions made by older generations. They are changes to the real esta…

Yes. A lot of this is down to environmental restrictions and building codes. Every rule a good idea in isolation, but taken together they mean you can no longer build an inexpensive house. I have a builder friend who told me in the SF East Bay he can't make money building houses except for 4000 sq ft luxury homes on tiny lots.

That's not environmental regulation that's just regular NIMBYism.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#274
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is only 11% of men versus 10.5% of women age 16-24 (PDF): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/youth.pdf

How is that relevant? From TFA: > By early 2026 recent grads sat at 5.6% unemployment Which seems very far from your numbers.

It's some actual BLS numbers from the same age range, instead of anecdote filtered through the algorithm of social media feeds.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#275
post #203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> without Chinese construction powress We need to be honest in calling this what it is: yes the Chinese have incredible construction capacity, but the far bigger reason why their cities are growing so fast is because: they essentially have zero personal or corporate property rights in urban zones.

That really isn’t true though, nail house term was invented in China after all. The only real magic is simply their ability to get sh*t done on time and on budget, which doesn’t exist in the USA anymore.

> nail house term was invented in China after all

I do not see how this is related to property rights? In urban China you do not own your home, it is a 70yr right to use the land.

Some of their construction is good, but not private homes. Because you do not own the land, the quality of your home is up to the developer, who basically follows no code and cheapens out on everything. Also the Chinese code is very loosely implemented, for it lacks basic insulation and ventilation to start with, let alone modern airtightness.

Anyone grew up in sfh like those in the US will not like to live in Chinese nail houses.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#276
post #21

I would postulate that there are two reasons why this is happening. 1. Pessimistic, harsh, etc: the quality of US graduates has been falling. Reading comprehension has been on a downward trend over the past decade. Mental illness, depression, and attention disorders are on the rise. Grade inflation, social media, AI availability, we spent years talking about how all of these things would be bad, and now the experimen…

1. Is incredibly stupid and just a talking point used to bring in labor from overseas that is wage suppression at best and ethnic nepotism at worse. You mean to tell me the average college grad from India is better? Nonsense

You mean to tell me the average college grad from every country is exactly the same?

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Welcome to the forever dissapointed club. The society you desire can’t exist unfortunately as much as I’ve thought it could and worked for it

There’s no utopia but that doesn’t mean you can’t bend society in one direction or another.

Nobody is talking about utopia

Society has always (yes always) “bent” toward dominating hierarchies because individuals want the stability of being part of the dominating group.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> medicine will always be the most secure and stable career, still has a shit life-work balance too. It only is because it effectively has a guild\cartel system preventing an oversupply of doctors and that we have an aging population that increasingly demands medical care.

The government protects their cartel system at every level. I can't even legally get a blood test without authorization from the cartel.

If you're in the US, you can. LabCorp and others sell blood tests. Your insurance won't cover it is all.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#279
post #21

I would postulate that there are two reasons why this is happening. 1. Pessimistic, harsh, etc: the quality of US graduates has been falling. Reading comprehension has been on a downward trend over the past decade. Mental illness, depression, and attention disorders are on the rise. Grade inflation, social media, AI availability, we spent years talking about how all of these things would be bad, and now the experimen…

1. Is incredibly stupid and just a talking point used to bring in labor from overseas that is wage suppression at best and ethnic nepotism at worse. You mean to tell me the average college grad from India is better? Nonsense

I literally never made any comments or aspersions on the quality of US graduates relative to other countries; just the quality of graduates relative to the quality of graduates from the same university ten years prior, or at least employers' perceived quality of these candidates.

Re: New U.S. college grads now have higher unemployment than the average worker

#280
post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if I don’t care about affording more things? And instead want to live in an ethical society that prioritizes stability and universal access to housing, healthcare, and education?

> And instead want to live in an ethical society that prioritizes stability and universal access to housing, healthcare, and education? Then talk to your local NIMBY. Housing crisis is not due to capitalism being evil, but due to constraining people from building. Healthcare is getting better all the time, we had MASSIVE breakthroughs this year at ASCO (which were made possible by big pharma!). As for education yeah,…

I think a lot of these statements are, at best, incomplete. For example, healthcare quality can get better while access gets lower, still resulting in worse outcomes for patients. Or, housing cost should be normalized based on size since until recently, houses have been getting larger on average.
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