Non profit files for IPO should be the headline.
Technically they are not profitable
nonprofitable ex-non-profit seeks profit via AGI (A Giant IPO)?
OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
271–280 of 426 posts
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
My returns are around 20 percent per year for years. I lack will and energy to list everything I owned but it’s basically a method of value investing + momentum trading so two opposites. You could say it’s a diversification of investing philosophies. Honestly it’s a free for all game so no one has any interest to share their secrets and methods. When you lose money I make money. Better player wins.
> My returns are around 20 percent per year for years. That's unbelievable! Even Warren Buffet only makes 19% - 20% compounded every year. That would make you one of the top investors ever.
> Even Warren Buffet only makes 19% - 20% compounded every year. That would make you one of the top investors ever.
Not really.
Plenty of hedge funds and HFT firms make 40-100% each year (before fees) over 30-40 years…
Citadel’s “stock picking ability” is 40% annual returns since 1999
They just don’t advertise this because it’ll make retail traders and passive ETF investors really sad
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#273Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
>the private market can't possibly go any higher Can public markets go higher? Shiller P/E is closing in on the peak of the dot-com bubble: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe This is already close to being the frothiest market in US history. Consider two competing forecasts for AI: it's a "normal technology", or it will be superintelligent. If it's a "normal technology", where's the moat? Why won't this turn into a bo…
The M2 money supply is ~4x higher now than in 1999. Does that indicate there is a lot more runway now, than then, at least on that metric?
Nasdaq is about 8x higher now than then, so 4x higher M2 is tight. Ofc there is always a chance that this time is different and that the markets are genuinely much more efficient :-)
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yep. Two simple boring bets on AI: NVIDIA and Google.
I still think NVIDIA is a bad bet--where is their moat in the long term? Doesn't the sort of work NVIDIA engineers do look vulnerable to AI-assisted automation? NVIDIA engineers code against a well-defined test suite/specification, right?
Their moat is cuda and cuda libraries and everything built on top.
When a new architecture drops, it's always PyTorch running on CUDA, other PyTorch backends are best effort, even if they reach feature parity, many industry power users went closer to the metal to squeeze performance and that stuff is too specific to Nvidia stuff.
if there is something that will beat Nvidia, it won't be something reaching feature parity with slightly better economics (like AMD, also Nvidia could just reduce their margins), it needs to be a novel approach worth rewriting the codebase for (maybe Cerebras, maybe a new player).
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would retire. If you have two million euros lying around, that would be life-changing money for me. I'd put everything into VWCE and then live off interest. I think I'd spend a year in Japan just to see what it's like, then travel around a few other countries, and finally settle somewhere back in Europe - buy a small house in the middle of nowhere, renovate it, and then smoke weed and play video games until the end…
Don't you think sitting alone at home smoking weed and playing games might get a little bit lonely? Humans need human contact. Might as well pick up a night shift at the convenience store so you can talk to people. At which point the plan becomes something you can put into action tomorrow, if you wanted. It's like the parable of the Mexican fisherman: https://www.thekinnardhomestead.com/the-parable-of-the-mexic... St…
Why can't you just play games with other people? Do you really need _work_ to not feel lonely?
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#277Soon to be part of your portfolio if you hold Nasdaq 100 or S&P 500 trackers line QQQ or SPY.
Note that index funds don't hold companies in proportion to their market cap, but in proportion to their free float (shares available to purchase on the market). Both SpaceX and OpenAI's estimated free float are around 4-5% of their shares at IPO. This means that we really are talking about companies in the sub $100M valuation in term of index fund impact (assuming under $2T for each).
5% of 2T would be $100B, not $100M.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#278If you're an investor you should try Deepseekv4 before you put your hard earned money in this gambling spree. Context - Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. "Thank you for your attention to this matter"
> Deepseekv4 is freely available to download you can host your own and sell it keeping the proceeds and it rivals Claude Opus 4.7. good luck getting a machine that can run its specs though. Even flash is goign to require ponying up 5-10 grand to run the minimal specs for it. The vast majority of people will find their machine falls behind as tech progresses long before they get a return on that investment. That said,…
It's not "there will be", there already is a market of generic providers and you can use millions of tokens of DeepSeek-v4-flash for like 1 dollar.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hmm, it looks like if their revenue doubles to ~$10B and their expenses don't, they stand to gain a very sweet ~$500M. https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-nears-first-quart... That being said, it does look like it's being partially subsidized by Elon burning lots of money. We'll see if he can keep it up or if it will be left behind as hardware evolves.
> its June quarter sales could reach at least $10.9 billion It COULD reach $10.9 billion. It COULD also completely shit itself and go bust. We'll just all have a fun time finding out together, won't we, investors?
Do this: pick a public company (because their numbers are available), look at their quarterly reports in the last 3 years. Check the numbers they forecasted for the subsequent quarter. Verify how bad they missed. See how likely they could "completely shit itself and go bust". Hint: extremely unlikely.
Re: OpenAI Is Preparing to File for an IPO Soon
#280Earlier quoted context omitted.
Meanwhile Chinese AI companies outputting open weight models nearly as good are valued in the low single digit billions. Go figure.
Wasn't there a Chinese ai startup that got bought recently but the government wouldn't let the founders leave china? I think stuff like that would have an effect on valuation
Yeah, Manus were supposed to be acquired by FB, but the Chinese government nixed it.