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US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

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271–280 of 303 posts

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$8000/month is way too low. If you're only spending $8000/month on AI you're in drastic danger of being replaced by a more efficient AI firm.

If you replace 100 then that's 800k/mo spend. Would that do?

That's a decent start, but if we're talking shop you might as well bump to at least 1.2-1.3M just to play it safe.

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was our tax rate that got rid of our WW2 debt? Taxes definitely solved that problem. And it even brought about the golden age of post WW2 US economy. The correct taxes in the correct areas serve as an incentive structure to help encourage businesses and individuals to make good decisions. At least, that's what we did 80 years ago.

Taxes would not make top-10 reasons for post WWII “golden age.” The US Government is at present (without any chances of this being fixed ever again) about the least efficient entity that exists on the Planet Earth and giving it more money will not solve any problem. It will be used though but one of the two political parties to win election(s) and kill any tax law that was previously put in place

Reminder that for the last 40 years one half of government, the Republican party, has had as their policy 'starve the beast' by allowing rampant spending and cutting taxes in order to make this very claim 'look at how inefficiently we spent your money (when our policy was to create this very situation). Look at all this debt (we intentionally piled on in order to cripple government).'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

much of our current economic and social problems stem from efforts to collect _less_ takes from corporations and the wealthy. So yeah, collecting more taxes -- from those who can afford it -- would make a big difference.

except that it wouldn’t. this is just another type of political shit that was put together by politicians here to fuck with us. if your family is running a budget deficit, there are two ways to mitigate it - make more money (drive uber and pizza (at the same time to make double money at night) or get a higher paying job - stop spending so much fucking money it seems politically, the left-leaning part of the countries…

For the last 40 years Republicans have had an intentional policy of running up government debt in order to 'starve the beast' and prevent government from functioning, and in order to force through policy they couldn't via standard democratic means.

Yes, when one half of government intentionally choses to work against our country, and to STRUCTURALLY destroy our government via debt/financial distress, it results in debt and financial distress.

Complaining about anything other than Republicans INTENTIONAL POLICY OF DEBT when talking about US debt is nothing but an extension of that destructive policy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starve_the_beast

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no public valuation of any AI company. But by the investment contracts OpenAI announced, if they replaced every white collar job in the world and captured all of their salary, they would have a P/E of ~1/70. (Assuming no costs at all.) You decide what return horizon you are comfortable with and solve the linear equation for it. (But my numbers are from the end of last year, I haven't seen any more recent comp…

Could I please ask what stats you used? Intuition says the valuation is too large and implies replacement, would be interesting to see something backing it up.

The 1.5T investment size was widely reported last year. AFAIK, they are required to spend all that money in the next few years if they survive for that long. Here's one place reporting it:

https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/sam-altman-open...

OpenAI also announced enough deals this year to more than double that amount. But I don't think anybody has put those announcements together and deduplicated them.

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except that it wouldn’t. this is just another type of political shit that was put together by politicians here to fuck with us. if your family is running a budget deficit, there are two ways to mitigate it - make more money (drive uber and pizza (at the same time to make double money at night) or get a higher paying job - stop spending so much fucking money it seems politically, the left-leaning part of the countries…

For the last 40 years Republicans have had an intentional policy of running up government debt in order to 'starve the beast' and prevent government from functioning, and in order to force through policy they couldn't via standard democratic means. Yes, when one half of government intentionally choses to work against our country, and to STRUCTURALLY destroy our government via debt/financial distress, it results in de…

yup, all the while they convinced their voters that “the other side” is to blame - quite fascinating (also says a lot about the general level of intelligence of cohort supporting this for these last XX years)

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#276
post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is precisely why DJT wants to control the Fed and lower interest rates. It would be a short-term win for him and the economy.

At the expense of much worse inflation..

Agreed. That's what I implied but forgot to state.

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#277
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US GDP per capita is still well ahead of China. The fact that China is catching up is not a problem for the US. On its own terms, 2% isn't great. It's kind of the bare minimum. Anything less is losing ground in absolute terms, since that's the target for inflation as well. That's also assuming the number is trustworthy. The number is a mediocre metric to start with, and I don't trust the administration to be calc…

To be clear, the 2% number was real growth, ie accounting for inflation

Ah. 2% real growth is fine. Not outstanding, but a reasonable level of gradual improvement for a developed economy.

China's sustained growth from a developing economy points to a bright future where they install more up to date infrastructure. The US is failing to keep up. But it's an investment it could choose to make any time... if it could focus.

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#278
post #141

Every interaction I have with AI where I previously would’ve interacted with a person is worse. Whether that’s something mundane like scheduling an appointment, use at a doctor’s office, chat support. I imagine it’s cheaper for the company deploying it, but it’s all bad. It lines up with companies being more concerned with investors than actual users and customers though.

chat support can be great, if the chat is knowledgeable and fast.

not sure if it really needs to have the power to act too, but if it can escalate with a really good description of my problem, and then the human support can take action, thats just fine by me

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#279
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stock market isn't the economy. Note that stock prices are denominated in dollars. If the dollar price of a stock doubles, but in the same time period the value of the dollar halves, then the stock's value hasn't gone up at all. Compare the price of the Dow Jones to to gold and its value peaked in 1999, and has been nosediving for the past 18 months[0]. The ratio right now is the same as it was in late 2008. Obvi…

Cool. Now use the value of a dollar denominated in Bitcoin. Or do you only like cherry picking your statistics?

Pretty sure that would just reinforce my point...

Re: US is starting to see heavy job losses in roles exposed to AI

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What was our tax rate that got rid of our WW2 debt? Taxes definitely solved that problem. And it even brought about the golden age of post WW2 US economy. The correct taxes in the correct areas serve as an incentive structure to help encourage businesses and individuals to make good decisions. At least, that's what we did 80 years ago.

Taxes would not make top-10 reasons for post WWII “golden age.” The US Government is at present (without any chances of this being fixed ever again) about the least efficient entity that exists on the Planet Earth and giving it more money will not solve any problem. It will be used though but one of the two political parties to win election(s) and kill any tax law that was previously put in place

If we're going to play the Either Or game, here's my play.

The 2008 crisis is on a long list of examples of how corporate efficiency harms me.

Governments have a mandate to benefit the public. Conversely, shareholder models encourage exploiting everything they possibly can (for shareholder benefit), corrupting government processes, harming the public and harming the corporation itself.

Instead of the Either Or fallacy, I suggest good-faith examination of actual harms and good. Governments (inc LEO) and corporations famously improve outcomes, when meaningful transparency is mandated, corrupt processes aren't hidden and ethical+competent overseers can pull the needed levers.

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