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The RAM shortage could last years

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Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#271

Post by pseudohadamard »

stuxnet79 wrote: post #11

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

It's not going to last until 2028, it'll last until 'min(AI_bubble_burst, 2028)', which I expect will be a lot smaller than just '2028'. So the real question is, how long will it take to retool for non-HBM, and will there be a fire sale as they scramble to recover?

Which also explains why production is falling behind demand, companies aren't going to sink billions into creating product for a market that could dry up overnight.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#272

Post by Catagris »

kdheiwns wrote: post #263
onion2k wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They ordered 40% of the global RAM production for 2025/26. It was a non-binding agreement that either side could easily withdraw from but they're essentially trying to buy about half of all the RAM.

Blows my mind that it's non-binding. If I booked half a hotel's rooms then suddenly said "yeah never mind. Half my friends cancelled and we're not staying", basically any hotel would be coming at me for my money because there's no way they can fill their rooms now and they're losing revenue. But OpenAI can really get the whole world to pivot towards it then say "cool but we don't need your product anymore" and RAM ma…

Well if that hotel was then able to sell the other half of hotel rooms for 10x the old price. Then the hotel might actually be happy as they can now charge 10x for the other half or slowly lower prices back down over years.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#273

Post by renewiltord »

atq2119 wrote: post #81
moffkalast wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like they're too big to fail, maybe we should bail them out to reinforce that they will get rewarded for making bad decisions.

Permanent public ownership of (very large stakes in) these companies doesn't seem like such a bad idea anymore, does it? It's what we used to have for most of the 20th century at least in Europe.

Yeah and exactly zero of those companies are European as a consequence. I think we won’t be taking Europe’s lead on this, thanks.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#274

Post by im3w1l »

lmm wrote: post #209
tcfhgj wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until? Just take what's out there - it's so easy to improve on Electron

Like what? Where else (that's a name brand platform and not, like, some obscure blog post's cobbled-together thing) can I start a project, push one button, and get binaries for all major platforms? Until you solve that people will keep using Electron.

There are quite a few options. Many of them look dated though. I think that's the usp of electron.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#275

Post by Morromist »

krastanov wrote: post #220
Morromist wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if it takes 100 years to get to AGI or we never achieve it? All bets on AGI will just fail over and over again for decades in that case. It seems a bit like saying financiers can't risk not being involved with Faster-than-light travel technology. Yeah, it would change everything if we got it, but betting that we'll get it soon over and over again is probably not going to get you a lot of money. We've been projec…

Who has been projecting FTL as a realistic technology ever? FTL is not possible according to the current laws of Physics, while AGI is at least not forbidden by them.

I think this should be something you can answer for yourself by looking at human media and news over the lasy 100 years. I find it hard to belive you haven't ever noticed anyone seriously saying we may possibly have FTL sometime in the future. Incidentially I think I read on HackerNews that Sam Altman has been talking about building Dyson Spheres in the future. I suppose they're not forbidden by the current laws of phyisics either, but I don't know if I would call them a realistic technology.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#276

Post by lofaszvanitt »

LastTrain wrote: post #247

Something I haven’t been able to reconcile: If AI makes software easier to create, that will drive the price down. How are software companies going to make enough revenue to pay for AI, when the amount of money being spent on AI is already multiples of the current total global expenditure on software? This demand for RAM is built on a foundation of sand, there will be a glut of capacity when it all shakes out.

It's a trojan horse. They expect the world will get hooked on it.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#277

Post by fuzzy2 »

alprado50 wrote: post #246

Im thankfull for buying 16gb of RAM, but what is gonna happen in 5 years when users PCs start to fail?

What do you mean, in 5 years? It's not like everyone just bought a new computer. My gut says it's exactly the other way around: most computers are old. They may fail as soon as today.

All computers in my household are 8+ years old.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#278

Post by im3w1l »

wmf wrote: post #241
fc417fc802 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is quite the amusing read but it seems like a poorly constructed law. It wasn't futures themselves that were the problem there. The duo engaged in blatant market manipulation and severely disrupted part of the food supply in the process.

And now OpenAI is engaged in blatant market manipulation and severely disrupted the entire world's DRAM supply.

Cornering the market with the intent to flip the goods is not quite the same as cornering the market because you actually want the goods and intend to use them yourself.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#279

Post by cma »

DoctorOetker wrote: post #69
VladStanimir wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think its from the ML collapse FUD, its most likely from the multiple time's in the past when they overbuilt and it resulted in a memory oversupply and price collapses. The 1985–1988, 1993–1994, 1998–2002 and the post pandemic oversupply. These were all cases where shortages followed by over corrections caused oversupply, financial losses due to low prices and fewer surviving companies. I think they're taking…

its not like all the RAM is passing the same machine, they can gradually increase machines and observe the change in demand, and smoothly match it.

Think of the factory problem from physics first principals instead, as Elon would say. Musk says he will outcompete earth fabs by building them on the moon in just a few years, deploy radiation harden versions of the chips into space, and beat out TCO vs doing this on earth.

If he can do all that that fast, the RAM makers should be able to at least 1000X their fab capacity on earth in one year. One year for scaling up existing tech is an eternity compared to Elon's timeframe for moon-fabs given the relative complexity of the challenge.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#280

Post by occamofsandwich »

im3w1l wrote: post #278
wmf wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And now OpenAI is engaged in blatant market manipulation and severely disrupted the entire world's DRAM supply.

Cornering the market with the intent to flip the goods is not quite the same as cornering the market because you actually want the goods and intend to use them yourself.

Right, the second was a conspiracy to form a monopoly.
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