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AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

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Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#271

Post by dinfinity »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #266
dinfinity wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I try to not be fatalistic. As I was trying to argue, it's historically inaccurate and it doesn't actually change the outcome. This is false. Being fatalistic and 'panicking' can definitely influence and thus change the outcome. Your logic is similar to what is (incorrectly) used to dismiss the Y2K-problem, for instance: Looking back it seems like there was no need to panic, but that is only because a lot of people…

I'm wrong to not be fatalistic?! You lost me here. A lot of people seem to be wasting a lot of energy insisting it is all going to end in tears because . All I'm doing here is pointing out that people like this come out of the woodwork with pretty much every big change in society and then people adapt and things are society fails to collapse. I'm not arguing there won't be changes and that they won't be disruptive to…

You largely ignored what I said and displayed exactly the fallacious behavior I was pointing out. Again, Y2K was not a problem because people 'freaked out' (took the problem seriously). Similarly, AI will only not be a problem due to people that spend time and effort to mitigate its issues, not due to people like you pretending that because nothing went seriously wrong in the past, nothing automatically will this time (because you "just don't see the basis for it").

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#272

Post by pixl97 »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #248
pixl97 wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean yes, just tell a robot to go pick up a green apple that has an integrated LLM and it can setup a course of actions to the other things like movement models to accomplish that task.

It doesn't seem to me that voice control of ad-hoc tasks would be such a big area of automated manufacturing, but ok.

Voice control is one thing, generalized vision is another, actual development of the automated manufacturing systems is another.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#273

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

pixl97 wrote: post #272
SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't seem to me that voice control of ad-hoc tasks would be such a big area of automated manufacturing, but ok.

Voice control is one thing, generalized vision is another, actual development of the automated manufacturing systems is another.

I take your word that there is progress in this area, but it doesn't change my view that the Solar+battery+EV stack really is the biggest technology transformation of our times.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#274

Post by 1718627440 »

fendy3002 wrote: post #71
neals wrote: post #15

I had to code something on a plane today. It used to be that you couldn't get you packages or check stackoverflow. But now, I'm useless. My mind has turned to pudding. I cannot remember basic boilerplate stuff. Crazy how fast that goes.

In my 7th years of professionally programming node, not even once I remember the express or html boilerplate, neither is the router definition or middleware. Yet I can code normally provided there's internet accessible. It's simply not worth remembering, logic and architecture worth more IMO

I remember the "HTML boilerplate", because I don't see it as boilerplate. I don't memorize it, I reconstruct it from the base concepts.

> Yet I can code normally provided there's internet accessible.

I'm the opposite. Yes I need my computer to test things fully, but I'm able to code on paper. I want my computer to be a complete sufficient node, so I mostly install documentation and my computer is mostly not connected to the internet, unless I actively enable it to do a specific thing.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#275

Post by negura »

neals wrote: post #15

I had to code something on a plane today. It used to be that you couldn't get you packages or check stackoverflow. But now, I'm useless. My mind has turned to pudding. I cannot remember basic boilerplate stuff. Crazy how fast that goes.

anecdata that is an apropos to the actual submission is somehow at the top of the thread with 100 (now +1) replies

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#276

Post by negura »

darkwater wrote: post #167

Probably a bit unrelated but I wondering if there is any economic theory that actually predicted something for real rather than extrapolate trends from past data in hindsight - even if crossing different kinds of events. Honest question, I'm not trying to mock economists or anything like that.

any prediction requires a model/theory of some sort. and a lot of economists make correct predictions. a lot of them also make incorrect predictions

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#277

Post by hansmayer »

embedding-shape wrote: post #268
hansmayer wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well - that's the thing - toy calculators are easy on the "muscle memory". The operations and data types will be mostly similar in syntax across all these languages. If however you wanted to do something more akin to a real world example, using these and those frameworks... it would probably look different. I wasn't disputing the knowledge of multiple languages btw - some of us had experiences in languages from the t…

That's not how I understood other's experience to be, they're describing something that won't let them even write toy calculators. Selected quotes: > But now, I'm useless. My mind has turned to pudding. I cannot remember basic boilerplate stuff > Played with these coding agents for the last couple weeks and instantly noticed the brainrot when I was staring at an empty vim screen trying to type a skeleton helloworld i…

> I was never a big framework user,

So you only ever wrote code in academic setting? Not being sarcastic, but no realistic software development in commercial setting will happen without frameworks.

> That's not how I understood other's experience to be, they're describing something that won't let them even write toy calculators. Selected quotes:

Well that is literally not what they are describing. The man said "boilerplate code". Again, unless most of the code you wrote was code used in purely academic setting, whether research or teaching, we all understand boilerplate code to mean something like "code to open a file descriptor / iterate through database rows / poll web server for results" etc. So the typical stuff you would implement while relying on abstractions and concepts someone else already defined for you.

> What are they worried about then?

If I had to guess - they are worried about the growing LLM-backlash working against their hoped-for-industry-wide-adoption and their infinite money at some point running out, because at the end of the day, NVIDIA lending OpenAI 100B to invest in MS Azure and Azure using those 100B to purchase NVIDIA chips...is starting to look a lot like circular financing.

> sounds like they're worried about "using these and those frameworks" but that's far from "real world work" in my experience

Again, if your area of work is academic or teaching, then this probably matches your own real world experience. The problem for the LLM-crowd is that there is a lot more people here whose "real world experience" are not toy calculators and isolated algorithm implementation, but actually yes, using "this and that framework", as otherwise the implementation would take un-realistically long. I may know how TLS works, but would I implement it's handshake routine on my own? Only if I did it as a personal excercise, not in a commercial scenario. Same for UI, same for DB ORMs, etc. You name it.

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#278

Post by hansmayer »

malfist wrote: post #97
fendy3002 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my 7th years of professionally programming node, not even once I remember the express or html boilerplate, neither is the router definition or middleware. Yet I can code normally provided there's internet accessible. It's simply not worth remembering, logic and architecture worth more IMO

Einstein famously refused to learn people's phone numbers, stating that he could look them up in the phonebook whenever he needed it. I don't think there is that much value in memorizing rarely used, easily looked up information.

> I don't think there is that much value in memorizing rarely used, easily looked up information.

easily looked up - we don't have that any more since Google decided to entshittify search. What you now have is not looked up information, as that would look the same each time you "looked it up" - instead of a quick 3-4 word search pattern you now write an elaborate verbose "query", and get a chewed up re-interpretation by the shitty LLMs. And then since sometimes its not quite what you asked for, you have to ask it again or redirect it and just like that, you've wasted 5 mins of your time arguing with a goddamn neural network!

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#279

Post by hansmayer »

ThrowawayR2 wrote: post #242
malfist wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Einstein famously refused to learn people's phone numbers, stating that he could look them up in the phonebook whenever he needed it. I don't think there is that much value in memorizing rarely used, easily looked up information.

The problem is that lazy people use the supposed Einstein quote as a convenient excuse to not know and internalize knowledge about their own profession. You can bet that Einstein memorized the relevant mathematics for his work thoroughly and completely.

Oh didn't you know - the legend has it, he was also bad at maths in elementary school, so that kid of your friends, failing the math this year, may be a genius too :)

Re: AI could be the end of the digital wave, not the next big thing

#280

Post by theshrike79 »

hansmayer wrote: post #278
malfist wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Einstein famously refused to learn people's phone numbers, stating that he could look them up in the phonebook whenever he needed it. I don't think there is that much value in memorizing rarely used, easily looked up information.

> I don't think there is that much value in memorizing rarely used, easily looked up information. easily looked up - we don't have that any more since Google decided to entshittify search. What you now have is not looked up information, as that would look the same each time you "looked it up" - instead of a quick 3-4 word search pattern you now write an elaborate verbose "query", and get a chewed up re-interpretation…

And this is why I pay for Kagi. It's in the top5 of services I cancel last if money is tight.
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