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System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

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Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#271
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good question. I would guess no - but it could help you build one. Am I mistaken?

They could help you build an AGI if someone else has already built AGI and published it on GitHub.

I see this statement all the time and it's just strange to me. Yes, the LLMs struggle to form unique ideas - but so do we. Most advancements in human history are incremental. Built on the shoulders of millions of other incremental advancements.

What i don't understand is how we quantify our ability to actually create something novel, truly and uniquely novel. We're discussing the LLMs inability to do that, yet i don't feel i have a firm grasp on what we even possess there.

When pressed i imagine many folks would immediately jest that they can create something never done before, some weird random behavior or noise or drawing or whatever. However many times it's just adjacent to existing norms, or constrained by the inversion of not matching existing norms.

In a lot of cases our incremental novelties feel, to some degree, inevitable. As the foundations of advancement get closer to the new thing being developed it becomes obvious at times. I suspect this form of novelty is a thing LLMs are capable of.

So for me the real question is at what point is innovation so far ahead that it doesn't feel like it was the natural next step. And of course, are LLMs capable of doing this?

I suspect for humans this level of true innovation is effectively random. A genius being more likely to make these "random" connections because they have more data to connect with. But nonetheless random, as ideas of this nature often come without explanation if not built on the backs of prior art.

So yea.. thoughts?

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#272
post #121
post #18

At what point do these companies stop releasing models and just use them to bootstrap AGI for themselves?

Can LLMs be AGI at all?

What can a SOTA LLM not answer that the average person can? It's already more intelligent than any polymath that ever existed, it just lacks motivation and agency.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#273

I've long maintained that the real indicator that AGI is imminent is that public availability stops being a thing. If you truly believed you had a superhuman, godlike mind in your thrall, renting it out for $20/month would be the last thing you would choose to do with it.

You would if there was one other company with a just as capable god like AI. You’d undercut them by 500 which would make them undercut you. Do that a couple of times and boom. 20 dollars.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#274

I've long maintained that the real indicator that AGI is imminent is that public availability stops being a thing. If you truly believed you had a superhuman, godlike mind in your thrall, renting it out for $20/month would be the last thing you would choose to do with it.

You have to recoup your training costs though? But I’m sure you would have better option than renting it to the general public if you indeed have a perfected AI

If you truly have an artificial superhuman mind, you don't need to rent it out to profit from it. You can skip to the chase and just have it run businesses itself, instead of renting it to human entrepreneur middlemen.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#275
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Haven't seen a jump this large since I don't even know, years? Too bad they are not releasing it anytime soon (there is no need as they are still currently the leader).

There's speculation that next Tuesday will be a big day for OpenAI and possibly GPT 6. Anthropic showed their hand today.

Sounds like a good opportunity to pause spending on nerfed 4.6 and wait for the new model to be released and then max out over 2 weeks before it gets nerfed again.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#276
post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

but you are assuming that the magical wizards are the only ones who can create powerful AIs... mind you these people have been born just few decades ago. Their knowledge will be transferred and it will only take a few more decades until anyone can train powerful AIs ... you can only sit on tech for so long before everyone knows how to do it

It's not a matter of knowledge, it's a matter of resources. It takes billions of dollars of hardware to train a SOTA LLM and it's increasing all the time. You cannot possibly hope to compete as an independent or small startup.

Presumably, the hardware to run this level of model will be democratized within the timeframe of the parent comment.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#277
post #18

At what point do these companies stop releasing models and just use them to bootstrap AGI for themselves?

I think it is naive to think the government (US or China most probably) will just let some random company control something so powerful and dangerous.

Isn't the U.S. government at least completely asleep at the wheel or captured by the very same "random" companies? I realize the administration got all pissy with Anthropic but it sounds like the gov and gov contractors are still using their models.

Re: System Card: Claude Mythos Preview [pdf]

#280
post #107

isn't this insane? why aren't people freaking out? the jump in capability is outrageous. anyone?

Anthropic needs to show that its models continually get better. If the model showed minimal to no improvement, it would cause significant damage to their valuation. We have no way of validating any of this, there are no independent researchers that can back any of the assertions made by Anthropic. I don’t doubt they have found interesting security holes, the question is how they actually found them. This System Card…

The numbers only go up to 100% though.
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