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SpaceX files to go public

nytimes.com

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Re: SpaceX files to go public

#271

Post by groby_b »

ZitchDog wrote: post #213
lacy_tinpot wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I am also confident xAI is not one of those Surely you're going to buy long Put options with that confidence, right?

You can’t trade options on an IPO.

You can post-IPO - depending on liquidity. I don't think that'll be an issue here.

And if the thesis of "it's going to look good for the first 15 days" holds, you can indeed be very profitable by e.g. buying ATM puts. (The problem being that markets don't like sticking to time tables just to accommodate your investment thesis ;)

So yes, you'll be able to take a bearish position fairly shortly after the IPO.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#272

Post by Saline9515 »

Betelbuddy wrote: post #28
jordanb wrote: post #15

You don't have to believe. If you have a 401k you will be an investor 15 days after launch. The IPO will go great, because the company will float a fairly small issuance. The big shareholders will not immediately sell. They will hold on and maybe even buy to support the price. Then, after 15 days, it will enter the indexes and everyone's 401k will start auto-buying this stock. You might say this is an obvious flaw in…

Uter and complete corruption: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47389233 - "Le secret des grandes fortunes sans cause apparente est un crime oublié, parce qu’il a été proprement fait." Honoré de Balzac

"The secret of greath wealths with unknown causes is a forgotten crime, because it was properly done" for those who don't speak french.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#273

Post by manquer »

xenadu02 wrote: post #195
manquer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>float a fairly small issuance SpaceX are widely reported to be planning to raise $75Billion in new capital. It may seem small a % for the valuation target. However that is about 3 times previous highest raise of $29B when Saudi Aramco went public few years back. The market simply may not be that deep[1] There is a good chance this one becomes the Wework of this decade. The valuation, amount being raised, cooling int…

I think you have to temper the skepticism a bit though. SpaceX has dramatically lowered the cost of launching things into space. They are still the leader here. They can put a kg into orbit cheaper than anyone, even heavily subsidized state operations (EU and China). Their order book continues to be full. Every single launch vehicle they roll off the line was pre-sold years ago, including its re-use flights. I agree…

As I mentioned at the end, if the pitch was just for the launch (and starlink) it would be an easy sell.

The problem is launch market is not worth 1.5+ trillion though, you need much more than just starlink and all the satellites today to justify that .

You and other early investors who had the opportunity to get in early may come of well in this and it was a good bet then.

However it is hard to see why rest of us should get in at $1.5T, the downside risks are far more than upside potential at this price .

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#274

Post by BurningFrog »

bdangubic wrote: post #269
WatchDog wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Overall it's worse than the other frontier models, but it's decent for queries about breaking news, due to being trained on twitter data. It's also better for queries about controversial topics, and topics that the other labs have deemed to be "unsafe". Politically, it differs quite a bit from other models.[0] It's right leaning, although it's closer neutral than other models, defining what neutral is a challenge tho…

> due to being trained on twitter data twitter data is 70%+ bots (probably more than that now)

Grok is of course also trained on the same giant blob of "all human writing" that the other models are trained on.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#275

Post by BurningFrog »

WatchDog wrote: post #214
Spooky23 wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is using Grok seriously?

Overall it's worse than the other frontier models, but it's decent for queries about breaking news, due to being trained on twitter data. It's also better for queries about controversial topics, and topics that the other labs have deemed to be "unsafe". Politically, it differs quite a bit from other models.[0] It's right leaning, although it's closer neutral than other models, defining what neutral is a challenge tho…

The stated goal for Grok is to be as truthful as possible.

Maybe that shows up as being more right leaning than the competition.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#276

Post by bpodgursky »

nojvek wrote: post #246
jrmg wrote: post #207

I wonder how many here are aware that SpaceX (not Musk) now owns X Corp. (nee Twitter), via its ownership of xAI. Smells like great fiduciary responsibility!

Let’s not forget the Republican govt + DOGE fired anyone with a spine at SEC. So SpaceX will be listed and soon on the index. He learned how getting into S&P500 index was a rocket ship for Tesla. So he bent the rules for SpaceX. So when the market crashes. It’s gonna be fast because of a couple of tech companies. Let’s see if OpenAI has enough clout and billions to bribe SEC to bend rules for them. Every year US beco…

On what grounds would the SEC actually block the merger? It's not anticompetitive, it's not even vertical integration. They can't stop things just for being dumb.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#277

Post by Saline9515 »

lotsofpulp wrote: post #260
Spooky23 wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is a great example. It’s 30% retail, 25% elon and insiders, and the remainder institutional, mostly index funds. The investment thesis for Tesla is absurd. They built the market cap on hype and it got big enough that it remains a force. It’s a flailing company, kept afloat by bullshit. The bigger issue is the death of small cap. Massive venture, sovereign wealth and PE funds don’t need the public market capital…

> The investment thesis for Tesla is absurd. They built the market cap on hype and it got big enough that it remains a force. It’s a flailing company, kept afloat by bullshit. Maybe, or maybe they are one of the few businesses people want to bet on to be able to create new streams of revenue. Intel used to be big, and now it isn’t. It being big didn’t help stop its demise. > The investors cashed out their shares to t…

The fact that founders still own 50% of the shares doesn't mean that they didn't sold some of ones they had. Also Snap gives very generous stock options to their C-team, meaning that they can sell overtime while keeping their large stash.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#278

Post by tristanj »

fwip wrote: post #261
tristanj wrote: post #225

I'm a SpaceX investor, and from reading the comments here, I think most people here are missing why SpaceX has an outrageously high valuation. SpaceX's valuation only makes sense if you buy into their mission of creating a civilization on Mars, and that the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation is the vehicle that creates this future. If SpaceX achieves this, it would be the most valuable company ever created. I…

And having a colony on Mars will be profitable because of...?

Was the British colonization and funding of Canada, New Zealand, and Australia profitable? All three colonies were not profitable for decades after their formation.

Yet looking back, colonialism was probably the most profitable venture ever undertaken. All three of them ended up becoming key allies and instrumental trading partners.

Think on a longer time scale.

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#279

Post by compass_copium »

groby_b wrote: post #271
ZitchDog wrote: post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can’t trade options on an IPO.

You can post-IPO - depending on liquidity. I don't think that'll be an issue here. And if the thesis of "it's going to look good for the first 15 days" holds, you can indeed be very profitable by e.g. buying ATM puts. (The problem being that markets don't like sticking to time tables just to accommodate your investment thesis ;) So yes, you'll be able to take a bearish position fairly shortly after the IPO.

A Musk joint immediately after an IPO. ATM puts will be trading at what, 250% IV?

Re: SpaceX files to go public

#280

Post by nradov »

afavour wrote: post #217
xenadu02 wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you have to temper the skepticism a bit though. SpaceX has dramatically lowered the cost of launching things into space. They are still the leader here. They can put a kg into orbit cheaper than anyone, even heavily subsidized state operations (EU and China). Their order book continues to be full. Every single launch vehicle they roll off the line was pre-sold years ago, including its re-use flights. I agree…

> Their order book continues to be full. In 2024 66% of their launches were for Starlink. So it’s not quite correct to suggest there’s a vibrant external market for their product, a lot of it is sort of self dealing.

There's a vibrant external market for satellite Internet service.
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