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Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

bbc.com

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Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#271

Post by zahlman »

OutOfHere wrote: post #187
dang wrote: post #175

(I changed the URL from https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-5... because there doesn't appear to be any readable workaround for the latter)

It might in theory be great to have an AI bot do this for all links of known paywalled sites if a good quality free alternative is available and discoverable by the AI bot. The bot could use the web search tool of an LLM service for this purpose. If not available, it could keep rechecking every fibonacci hour for up to 21 hours.

That just gets us links from whichever SEO spam farm is best at prompt-injecting LLMs into believing they provide a "good quality free alternative".

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#272

Post by vkou »

mothballed wrote: post #12
readitalready wrote: post #3

It's why WTI crude never exceeds $100/barrel. Every time it gets that high the insider in the administration shorts it and the administration announces a new policy delaying more strikes.

You don't even need to trade oil, trading gulf country assets also works well. And rebuilding the gulf should be quite profitable if Iran blows it up and the assets will be available cheap.

Iran can't blow the gulf up in any meaningful sense, even if the war continues for a long time.

It can blow up a few high ROI targets, but that ROI isn't from the cost of rebuilding - it's from the opportunity cost of not having them.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#273

Post by zahlman »

inaros wrote: post #73
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #62

1. By a show of hands, who was surprised that the cataclysmic warnings of the weekend subsided into talk of diplomacy on Monday? 2. Let’s hypothesize the US gov’t or allies did pre-release this info to traders as a policy tool, inviting them to sell oil profitably, shaping the later price action . In a practical sense they may have brought more speculators to the short side than otherwise would have been there; is th…

If you run the numbers: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47504505 You will see, that anything else other than a ground invasion, is guaranteed to give Iran a war victory.

What does "victory" or "defeat" actually entail here? It's not as if the US risks any territory?

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#274

Post by keeganpoppen »

is anyone else really starting to get fucking tired of this bullshit? yes, it is not an unprecedented, nor unique, phenomenon, but, like, it just feels so blatant. and i say this as someone who doesn’t reflexively hate everything trump does. i do, of course, dislike most things he does, but i do so in what i consider to be a fairly sympathetic and open-minded way. but this is just, like… kleptocracy, no?

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#275

Post by ksherlock »

NegativeLatency wrote: post #106

Martha Stewart was sent to prison for less

The Martha Stewart and Mark Cuban cases were more or less the same -- a non-insider investor was given information from an insider, sold their stock to avoid a loss, and were then investigated for it.

The thing is - insider trading is illegal but it's poorly defined.

Martha Stewart wasn't convicted of insider trading - she was convicted of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and making false statements to a federal investigator.

Mark Cuban wasn't convicted of insider trading either. He wasn't convicted at all. He kept his mouth shut and the jury found him not guilty of insider trading.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#276

Post by teachrdan »

some_random wrote: post #266
mikewarot wrote: post #193

I'm not sure if this is parody or not, but someone admitted to it. These days it wouldn't surprise me if it were this brazen. https://x.com/gothburz/status/2036413487530831899

People who make 1.5 billion USD trades do not brag about it on twitter.

Someone on Twitter bragged about buying it for $54.20 a share.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#277

Post by vkou »

fraywing wrote: post #17

I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?

> What's the path for that, really?

Elect people who will make justice a priority.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#278

Post by michaelteter »

fraywing wrote: post #17

I'm growing pessimistic that this kind of activity + the egregious presidential-level crypto scams will never see justice. What's the path for that, really?

Sometimes there is no justice. You just have to accept that bad people get away with bad stuff, usually at a significant cost to others.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#279

Post by vkou »

bushbaba wrote: post #63
vjulian wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Revolution, not election. We need a new governance framework in the US. I believe it’s genuinely silly to think this type of activity is limited to one party or one administration or that it is new. I believe the Constitution and related artefacts should be stored in the British Museum with other historical documents. Civic religion needs to be done away with.

That assumes the new system will be better. History tells us otherwise

If revolutions inevitably make government worse, humanity collectively must be in the worst form of government in human history.

Re: Mystery jump in oil trading ahead of Trump post draws scrutiny

#280

Post by mroche »

Analemma_ wrote: post #268
krona wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much above $80 and shale oil becomes highly profitable. So swing producers like the US act as a soft ceiling.

That’s how it worked 10 years ago, that’s not really how it works now. The wildcat shale drillers of a decade ago all went bankrupt when prices fell, and lost a bunch of money for their investors. They’ve since all been bought up by larger firms with way more capital discipline, who don’t ramp up drilling just because prices have a little spike, especially when we all know that TACO. Do not expect shale drilling to s…

> TACO

TIL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Always_Chickens_Out

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