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US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

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Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#271
post #247

So, if I’m following: Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Many of these businesses are SaaS which means their valuations are tumbling. It seems possible that valuations tumble so much that the private equity owner no longer has any incentive to operate the business, bc all future cash flows will belong to the bank. What happens in practice then? Will banks actually step in and t…

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

"So now the VC lends the money from the bank"

"lends" -> "borrows", right?

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who's life is currently being affected directly by PE middle-manning something I spend a LOT of time on, I am sensitive to this issue. IF you have problems with the vocab and terms, fine. But I have seen personally this issue in my life, that is affecting my bank account. And we have seen example after example of these LBO's ruining otherwise functioning businesses. It's happening. All over the place.

It is absolutely possible (and even likely!) that a bad PE fund was the cause of the issue you're talking about. But there is also a media hysteria around PE, and a lack of understanding among the general public of what it is. It's just as likely the business that was acquired was already failing or unsustainable to begin with (hence why the owner wanted out at low multiples). LBO funds don't acquire promising busine…

> Momentum is the strongest factor in all markets

Nit: beta is the strongest factor in all markets. Which is actually relevant for the success for PE funds in general, as a rising tide lifts all boats and people taking on debt to finance equity generally post outsized returns in bull markets.

Anyway, the rest of the stuff you're saying I agree with.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#273
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

So yes, PE funds are probably overvalued right now and there are a lot of PE funds getting rich off management fees while not providing promised returns...but this comment is so wrong I don't know where to begin. First, VC stands for venture capital, which is a subset of private equity that does zero LBOs and doesn't even acquire any businesses. VC funds buy equity in startups, and take on zero debt to do so. You hav…

Background: I work for a PE-owned company and I have friends in PE (associates up to MDs).

On your second point: LBOs aren't the only tool in the toolkit, and it's not as popular as it was decades ago, so I would lean towards the parent simply conflating "buying an ownership stake in a business in some capacity using other people's money" with the strict definition. Regardless, yes PE firms need to figure out how to get 20%+ IRR throughout a short timeframe (usually a 5 year holding/funding cycle) -- however this is through any means necessary. Philosophically, it's about increasing efficiency of operations and growing the business. In practice, it's financial engineering because PE firms do not have the operational skills to make any value-added changes to firms besides driving costs down.

Saddling a business with debt is reductionist. I've seen absolutely nonsensical financial structures that make no sense for a layman, but in practice end up "using the business' finances to 'own' (beneficially) the business" (see: at the most vanilla, the strategy of seller financing in SMBs). No this is not technically "putting debt on the books" but it is in all practical respects a novation/loan transfer that can leave the purchased co financially responsible for servicing any debt that was used in its purchase.

On your third point: what I wrote above can be used as context. It's not risk free revenue, frankly it's very risky unless you're in an inflationary environment where your assets will grow regardless of your business operations solely because the overarching economy is growing and you're riding a tailwind. However, it again boils down to financial engineering. It's not as simple as assets - liabilities = equity. The calculations used to determine valuations are so ridiculously convoluted. The amount of work that goes into financially analyzing businesses and finding "loop holes" that can justify higher prices is the core business model. The debt factors into it, but there's ways to maneuver around it through various avenues.

For example:

* debt-to-equity conversions (reclassification of debt as equity)

* refinancing

* sale-leaseback (selling company's assets to a 3rd party and using that money to pay down the debt, then leasing the equipment back)

* creative interpretations of what is actually debt (e.g. reclassifying real debt as a working capital adjustment or a "debt-like")

* dividend recapitalization (a nasty trick of loading the company with debt, paying that out as a dividend to the holdco, then selling the company at lower enterprise value. They still extracted value for their LPs/investors, despite the exit being lower)

* separating the debt from the operating company into a different holding company that services the debt

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#274
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

"So now the VC lends the money from the bank" "lends" -> "borrows", right?

If hours of preparation for college testing taught me anything, it's the difference between lend and borrow.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#275
post #270
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

> Risk free revenue to the VC. How is that risk free? If the clinic goes bankrupt the VC will be on the hook for the rest of the loan. It’s not free money.

They're not so silly as to have any personal or professional liability, they probably spin up a special purpose vehicle or llc to hold the bag if it all goes south

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#276
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But what will break the clock ?

As Buffett said, "only when the tide goes out do you learn who has been swimming naked" - luckily, skimming the news, there's no obvious huge exogenous macroeconomic shocks on the horizon that could cause "the tide to go out" so to speak, so everything should be ok for now.

Umm... Couldn't whole Iran debacle be such shock? If the effects are not contained?

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#277
post #272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is absolutely possible (and even likely!) that a bad PE fund was the cause of the issue you're talking about. But there is also a media hysteria around PE, and a lack of understanding among the general public of what it is. It's just as likely the business that was acquired was already failing or unsustainable to begin with (hence why the owner wanted out at low multiples). LBO funds don't acquire promising busine…

> Momentum is the strongest factor in all markets Nit: beta is the strongest factor in all markets. Which is actually relevant for the success for PE funds in general, as a rising tide lifts all boats and people taking on debt to finance equity generally post outsized returns in bull markets. Anyway, the rest of the stuff you're saying I agree with.

Yes, beta is the overwhelming source of returns. I was referring to factors in the sense of the University of Chicago research on market inefficiencies (where momentum is the strongest factor for inefficiency).

If you buy a “factor-weighted” etf the idea is it’s tilting you into those “factors” away from pure beta like buying whole market.

PE you could argue is largely just leverage plus an illiquidity factor play, since if PE just returned beta (which these days it might!) you’d be smarter to buy the S&P500 with equivalent leverage and not pay crazy fees.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#278
post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Banks are lending to private equity firms to fund purchases of businesses. Yes some businesses are SaaS but here's the real problem: Many businesses' sole purpose is _leveraged buy-outs_ which really is the devil in disguise. It goes like this: A VC specialising in veterinary clinics finds a nice, privately owned town clinic with regular customers and "fair" prices, approach the owners saying "we love the clinic yo…

"So now the VC lends the money from the bank" "lends" -> "borrows", right?

No dude. Read it again.

The VC lends (the money from the bank) which the vc borrowed, to the clinic.

They are a sort of middle man. It the clinic is on the hook to the bank and the Vc takes fist cut before playing the bank.

Eg. The vc only risked the company they were buying, and gets paid first.

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#279

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, this isn't that big of a number in the larger scale of US banking; According to the numbers in the article that's only about 2.5% of all bank lending (300B/1.2T, with the 1.2T being ~10%)

> this isn't that big of a number in the larger scale of US banking It's not. It's just that we're seeing potentially 10% losses on the portfolio level [1], which could imply up to–up to!–5% losses to the banks' loans to those lenders. Again, tens of billions of dollars of losses are totally absorbable. But Morgan Stanley's stock price took a hit when it gated one of these funds [2]. And some banks (Deutsche Bank, so…

you're the only person replying to comments on this post that seems to know what they're talking about. what do you do for a living?

Re: US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it was a good call, yes. A deflationary collapse is incredibly damaging to the economy. The Great Depression was such a collapse, but there are others. The Panic of 1857, 1873, 1907... there's a long history of these. The Fed avoided that. And they also avoided causing inflation. It was an amazing job of threading the needle. (One could argue that they caused a decade of stagnation, but in my view that was mi…

Thank you for the thoughts. Do you think if we had ripped the band-aid off then it would have been completely disastrous? I don't mind saying that this economy is frustrating, and it feels like we keep kicking the can down the road. I'm confident I'm not the only person that feels this way, and I'm quite open to being wrong here. My guts says there's just too much money sloshing around, and it gets vacuumed up, leavi…

I think you may be missing that $4 trillion evaporated in 2008, and the scale of the catastrophe that would have caused if the Fed did nothing. What the Fed did then was, essentially, restore the amount of money to what it was in 2007. They were trying to turn 2008 into as much of a "nothing changed" as they could, and they did it quite well.

I think the economy can adjust to any amount of money; it's the abrupt change in the amount that causes problems (because it causes an abrupt change in the value of money).

I think you may be missing that I'm not saying the same thing about the pandemic response. I think that too much money got poured in during the pandemic years, and that has caused inflation, and we've been seeing that inflation since. I wonder if you are taking how you feel about the last five or six years, and mapping that onto the last 18 years.

Now, from 2008 to 2020 was not all roses. Things were kind of stagnant. The rich were probably doing better than you were, because assets like stocks and land went up in value as interest rates went down, but your wages didn't go up. So, it was reasonable for you to feel "there's too much money sloshing around" in things like stocks during those years.

But I think it got worse after Covid. The government air-dropped too much money in, and there has definitely been too much money sloshing around since then.

In all of this, I'm not really saying that you're wrong in feeling that there's too much money sloshing around, or that the economy is frustrating.

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