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Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

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Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#271

Post by donkeybeer »

shirro wrote: post #87

Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality. Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or n…

Are we sure these are ram shortages or ram "shortages"? If these are "shortages" why blame the ai companies for exposing it, you should complain to the ram maker for refusing to manufacture any.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#272

Post by yread »

nickjj wrote: post #137
torben-friis wrote: post #21

The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising. The just announced pixel is the same phone as last year. I know it sounds like a usual complaint, but look at the actual specs, it literally is the same phone with differences so small that hey might have passed as regional variance. As for the Samsung, the screen can darken when looked from the side for privacy. That’s pretty much it. Price increased though. Couple…

> The latest phone reviews have been eyebrow raising. It's eyebrow raising for me in other ways. I have a Pixel 9a and it's been quite good with really solid battery life. It's barely 6 months old and I got it new straight from Google. A few days ago I noticed the battery started to drain much faster than usual. I also noticed at the same time Google is pushing the 10a. Nothing changed on my end. I barely use the pho…

I just noticed something called smart download in youtube: in the background download 1GB of videos I may or may not watch, enabled by default. That surely drains the battery. It might also affect longevity of the UFS storage.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#273

Post by dzonga »

mikestorrent wrote: post #178
intrasight wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really nuts how much RAM and CPU have been squandered. In, 1990, I worked on a networked graphical browser for nuclear plants. Sun workstations had 32 mb memory. We had a requirement that the infographic screens paint in less that 2 seconds. Was a challenge but doable. Crazy thing is that computers have 1000x the memory and like 10,000x the CPU and it would still be a challenge to paints screens in 2 seconds.

Yes, the web was a mistake; as a distributed document reading platform it's a decent first attempt, but as an application platform it is miserable. I'm working on a colleague's vibe-coded app right now and it's just piles and piles of code to do something fairly simple; long builds and hundreds of dependencies... most of which are because HTML is shitty, doesn't have the GUI controls that people need built in, and al…

the web is great as an application platform.

what's not great are the complexity merchants, due to money & other incentives etc that ship to the web.

there's better web frameworks that are lighter, faster than react - but due to hype etc you know how that goes

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#274

Post by donkeybeer »

throwaway270925 wrote: post #233

I wonder if we will ever get an aproximate percentage of GDP or some other hard numbers for how much Sam/OpenAI (and the manufacturers ofc) hurt the global economy with all of this? Less phones,computers,consoles,servers,etc sold (and everything that follows this) seems a way larger impact on the economy than a few thousand new ChatGPT Pro memberships...

Why not blame the price fixers? Why are you blaming buyers, small or huge?

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#276

Post by donkeybeer »

darthoctopus wrote: post #4

Lest we forget, this memory shortage was deliberately engineered [1]. Thanks, OpenAI. [1]: https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/post/sam-altman-s-dirty-dram...

Holy shit, I had no idea openai ahd such immense international power over manufacturers in independent foreign countries that they can tie the hands of ram companies and forcibly prevent them from making more ram.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#277

Post by okanat »

qsera wrote: post #226
dsego wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are cross platform concerns as well. If the option is to build 3-4 separate apps in different languages and with different UI toolkits to support all the major devices and operating systems, or use the web and be 80% there in terms of basic functionality, and also have better branding, I think the choice is not surprising.

I am not sure, it seems that cross platform Applciations are possible using something like python3/gtk/qt etc.

Cross platform GUI libraries suck. Ever used a GTK app under Windows? It looks terrible, renders terrible, doesn't support HiDPI. Qt Widgets still have weird bugs when you connect or disconnect displays it rerenders UIs twice the size. None of those kinds of bugs exist for apps written in Microsoft's UI frameworks and browsers.

The problem with cross platform UI is that it is antithetical to the purpose of an OS-native UI in its reason of existence. Cross platform tries to unify the UX while native UI tries to differentiate the UX. Native UI wants unique incompatible behavior.

So the cross platform UI frameworks that try to use the actual OS components always end up with terrible visual bugs due to unifying things that don't want to be unified. Or worse many "cross platform" UI frameworks try to mimic the its developer's favorite OS. I have seen way too many Android apps that has "cross platform" frameworks that draw iOS UI elements.

The best way to do cross platform applications with a GUI (I specifically avoid cross platform UI) is defining a yet another platform above a very basic common layer. This is what Web had done. What a browser asks from an OS is a rectangle (a graphics buffer) and the fonts to draw a webpage. Nothing else. Entire drawing functionality and the behavior is redefined from scratch. This is the advantage of Web and this is why Electron works so well for applications deployed in multiple OSes.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#278

Post by okanat »

teeray wrote: post #165
al_borland wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From everything I’ve seen, LLMs aren’t exactly known for writing extremely optimized code. Also, what happens to the stability and security of my phone after they let an LLM loose on the entire code base for a weekend? There are 1.5 billion iPhones out there. It’s not a place to play fast and loose with bleeding edge tech known for hallucinations and poor architecture.

> LLMs aren’t exactly known for writing extremely optimized code. They are trained on everything, and as a result write code like the Internet average developer.

The average developers suck. The distribution is also unbalanced. It is bulkier on the low-skill side.

Great UIs are written by above average or even exceptional developers. Such experience is tied to the real-life reasoning and combining unique years-long human experience of interacting with the world. You need true general intelligence for that.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#279

Post by namibj »

donkeybeer wrote: post #271
shirro wrote: post #87

Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality. Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or n…

Are we sure these are ram shortages or ram "shortages"? If these are "shortages" why blame the ai companies for exposing it, you should complain to the ram maker for refusing to manufacture any.

The AI boom is worse for DRAM fab planning than the crypto boom was for GPUs. It's way way way bigger, somehow has huge money behind it, and DRAM fabs are investments with usually no less than 5 years latency from starting to build any particular one until the first memory sticks show up on a best buy shelf, while planning for the factory to produce continuously for 20+ years in normal times to turn profit if one calculates in lending rates/interest.

They are not curtailing themselves in a market as lucrative as the current one; they probably boost their marginal work planning impacts to productivity via predictive maintenance like actions to err on the side of more productivity due to the immense profit each Gigabit they can deliver this year makes them. Literally like over half of what a consumer pays today at best buy could be expected to be just profit of the factory based off of the non-artificial supply limits and the huge AI demand pushing out all but the wealthiest home-PC demand...

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#280

Post by crowfunder »

HerbManic wrote: post #212
deaddodo wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the js that does it, because so many webpages are terribly optimized to integrate aggressive ad waterfalls into them. Or have persistent SPA framework's doing continually scope checks. That being said, there's no reason the Safari context shouldn't be able to suspend the JS and simply resume when the context is brought back to the foregrown. It's already sandboxed, just stop scheduling JS execution for that sand…

Sorr of related. On my laptop running linux, Firerox with youtube will get progressively slower if you keep sleeping and waking up the laptop. It is as though the JS is struggling to keep up with adjusting to the suspend and wake cycle. This never happened on Windows/macos systems so it could just be a linux thing.

I've encountered the exact same issue. What helped me somewhat, at least with the video playback, is opening videos in embed player.

I coded an extension that adds a context menu for opening videos in embed mode. https://addons.mozilla.org/pl/firefox/addon/youtube-open-as-...

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