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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#271

Post by margalabargala »

biophysboy wrote: post #248
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

What do you make of the birth rates being much higher and stable among married couples, and of the birth rates among women in their 30s increasing? These don't really correspond to your take.

I think that perfectly aligns with their take.

People in their 30s, married, tend to have more stable lives. They are in a position where they feel they are able to give that child a good life.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#272

Post by el_benhameen »

scottious wrote: post #176
jdlyga wrote: post #68

Once you have a kid, it's obvious why even besides the costs involved. There's not much sense of community, particularly in the white middle class. People are very individualistic and distrusting of others. There's a good reason for some of this, but to have a community you need to be a community member. And that means letting people in, trusting others and being trustworthy, and being out for the group instead of ju…

Every morning I get to my son's school about 10 minutes before the doors open. We arrive by bike and we sit ALONE on the benches near the front door. Meanwhile, the curb is full of extra large SUVs idling with kids just waiting inside the cars. The long line of SUVs extends all through the neighborhood. My son and I are alone because people just won't leave their cars until the doors open. A vast majority of the kids…

On the off chance you’re in the Bay Area, look into Walk N Roll: https://walknrolltoschool.org/

I helped start the chapter at my kids’ school and I’ve been impressed by the enthusiasm given how car-centric the school is (we’ve got the big SUV line, too).

Like you, we were usually one of two or sometimes three bike families. Walk N Roll days are now packed with bikes, and the bike population has increased substantially on regular days, too.

We’ve met some cool families, and the “goddamned big cars idling, you live three blocks away why don’t you just walk” grumbling in my head has quieted a bit.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#273

Post by kmijyiyxfbklao »

garciasn wrote: post #184
phainopepla2 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are some of the myths they bust in that article? For those of us who can't see past the paywall

TL;DR: the article argues we cannot fix the population crisis with small tax breaks or traditional values because the modern world has made the cost of raising a child being too high for most people to want to try. --- The article argues that the global drop in birth rates isn’t a moral failure or a biological accident, but a logical response to the pressures of modern life. 1. Myth: People are too selfish/liberal to…

> 4. Myth: Immigrants will replace the population.

> Reality: Newcomers quickly adopt the habits of their new country. Within one generation, immigrant birth rates drop to match everyone else’s.

That doesn't address the "myth". You can keep bringing more migrants and eventually replace the population.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#274

Post by Aurornis »

epistasis wrote: post #164
watwut wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people. Being stay at home parent is one of the most lonely thing you can do. Yes, the parent who works in office and goes bowling with collagues is less lonely. But the one who is spending whole day with a small kid and no one else is much more lonely .They cant go bowling either, becaus…

I wonder if what you describe is a consequence of suburbia. In any sort of proper town, there's quick and easy access to parks where you encounter people on the walk to the park, which gives a great sense of community. When you have to pack up the kids in a car you are isolated from community, except through the negative community of bad driving. The stay at home parents k know are not lonely and go out and engage wi…

Suburbia is the easiest place to take the kids and go find things to do on a walk.

> The stay at home parents k know are not lonely and go out and engage with other parents and have perhaps a far stronger community than the working parent.

Same. As long as you don’t literally stay at home, being a parent with kids is such an easy way to meet more people.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#275

Post by tcmart14 »

pydry wrote: post #237
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

Theyre probably all correct. Nobody is exactly in a position to test their ideas though are they?

Yup and thats part of the issue. Too many people want to simplify it down to, "if we just did x, then we will see y." Nah, this is a complicated problem. Its probably gonna take the whole alphabet of solutions, but there is no political will or too much squabbling to since people want their idea why we have population decline to be right. But the bottom line is, having kids is expensive. You can make it less expensive, but that alone probably isn't gonna solve it.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#276

Post by idontwantthis »

actionfromafar wrote: post #10
garbawarb wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heck, they could just make it easier for documented immigrants to live here.

There are other plans now: https://baptistnews.com/article/remember-the-first-goal-of-p...

Holy shit that article invokes explicit nazi policy without a shred of shame.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#278

Post by cmrdporcupine »

JPKab wrote: post #264
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

"Only if the mothers in aggregate truly believe that their children will have good lives, then will they have them." Then please explain why birth rates throughout human history, when life was vastly more difficult and dangerous than it is now, were so much higher? Nobody had to meet this bar you set before. Let's just be honest here. There were three recent developments, all of which were, by themselves, good things…

You really don't need to get so elaborate. The shift from agricultural to industrial/service economy explains it well enough.

In an agricultural economy, children are an economic assistance, a source of labour, and a means of helping with survival.

In our industrial/service capitalist economy, while they are a net good for society ... they are a cost centre for the parent.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#279

Post by csallen »

JPKab wrote: post #264
Balgair wrote: post #207

I like to hang out on fertility twitter. It's a strange place. Since the fertility problem is worldwide, you get a lot of ideologies mixing about. There's hardcore CCP folks, free market Mormons, radical Imams, universalist preachers, the whole lot of them. They're all trying to share ideas and jumping on the latest research findings from reputable and crackpot sources. They're all looking for the recipe to get peopl…

"Only if the mothers in aggregate truly believe that their children will have good lives, then will they have them." Then please explain why birth rates throughout human history, when life was vastly more difficult and dangerous than it is now, were so much higher? Nobody had to meet this bar you set before. Let's just be honest here. There were three recent developments, all of which were, by themselves, good things…

> Modern humans live in what would have been historically viewed as a Utopia.

I think about this all the time, and how tragic (comedic?) it is that humanity finally created a Utopian age but most of its inhabitants are ignorant of that fact, and thus don't appreciate it, and instead genuinely believe they live in one of the worst times ever.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#280

Post by fullstop »

watwut wrote: post #150
supertrope wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam is about the decline of civil society. Church membership is down. Labor union membership is down. Parents got crushed in the pandemic with school shutdowns, daycare shutdowns, and formula shortages. It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people.

> It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people. Being stay at home parent is one of the most lonely thing you can do. Yes, the parent who works in office and goes bowling with collagues is less lonely. But the one who is spending whole day with a small kid and no one else is much more lonely .They cant go bowling either, becaus…

This is why "Moms clubs" are a thing. I get that safe spaces are wanted, especially if the mothers needed to nurse, but dads were unwelcome in the chapter near me.
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