De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025) • Hacker News Board

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#271

Post by g-mork » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

hnburnsy wrote: post #77

For those who are not bothering to read this,the article essentially states that de-dollarization is happening in pockets (e.g., reserves down to ~58-60%, Treasuries foreign ownership at 30%), but the dollar's core dominance persists. What would replace it? I guess the options are Yuan, Gold, Oil or maybe BRICS in the future, none of which are safe, stable, and liquid.

the BRICS Unit was proposed to resolve the "Triffin dilemma", which is that the structural deficit necessary to maintain reserve status inevitably erodes trust in the currency over time. China's economy also relies on exports which would not be helped by reserve status. which is to say an eventual replacement may not be the yuan or any other single currency

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#272

Post by FrustratedMonky » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

llmslave wrote: post #189

FrustratedMonky wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

was money printing because of a lack of independence, and manipulation by the executive? or the fed trying to keep things afloat. this president is trying to money print during non-crisis, to ramp up economy to "20% GDP". why downvote? Trump literally said he wants a GDP that goes to 20% or 100%. Shoot to the moon.

covid money printing was some of the worst fed decision making in US history. they essentially ruined the housing market, priced out a generation of younger buyers, which is now crushing fertility rates, savings, and more

everyone complains, nobody has alternatives.

what would have been the correct actions in that situation?

really the government should tax in good times.

and

spend in bad times.

and be a counter weight to private sector

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#273

Post by legitster » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:33 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #209

legitster wrote: post #175

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

Nobody is cheering for inflation to get worse, they are celebrating it being held down to 2.7% after higher inflation a few years ago. The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and food and self-sufficent for majority of its mineral needs as well. There is no need for U.S. to crash its currency to incentivize domestic production, it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so.

> Nobody is cheering for inflation to get worse, they are celebrating it being held down to 2.7% after higher inflation a few years ago.

Trump is actively fighting the federal reserve to drop the interest rate to 0%. Members of his team regularly do interviews where they say "it's going to get worse before it gets better". Inflation is being held down despite this administration's best efforts.

> The U.S. is a net exporter of oil and food and self-sufficent for majority of its mineral needs as well.

And has been for a while. But the current conservative rhetoric is specifically about bringing manufacturing jobs back.

> There is no need for U.S. to crash its currency to incentivize domestic production, it can just impose tariffs on imports to do so.

I don't think autarky is this administration's only stated goal. They specifically see an export-led economy as being more important or even "legitimate" and are pushing for other countries to import our goods. Devaluing currency is a strong way to incentivize exports and China's currency manipulations were the key to their rise as a manufacturing power.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#274

Post by consumer451 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

Related is the PM of Canada’s speech at Davos today. I don’t think that I have heard such a blunt assessment of the past and future from a politician, ever.

This may be a historically significant speech.

https://www.youtube.com/live/dE981Z_TaVo?t=100

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#275

Post by GnarfGnarf » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

parsimo2010 wrote: post #138

softwaredoug wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not just that This is a gradual decline. From 70% in the 90s to 60% today. Today there are more options like the Euro that didn’t exist in the 90s. People can argue over EU economic stability, but it’s there as reasonable option.

As time goes on, fewer people are alive that predate the EU and more people will perceive it as a lasting institution. Additionally, we've now seen the EU survive the departure of a major economic power (the UK). More people are certainly willing to believe in the stability of the EU now. Another major currency is the Yuan, and some countries may be as willing to trade in Yuan to improve relations with China, so perh…

The UK was not part of the Euro economy.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#276

Post by pbhjpbhj » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

chrisco255 wrote: post #167

munk-a wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a very sudden shift though - those options have existed but not generally been seriously considered. The US was seen as a bastion of stability and while sanctions could drastically impact a country's ability to trade due to the reliance on US currency exchange it has arguably been used relatively scarcely. The change is that suddenly the US isn't a bastion of stability and having an independent trading curre…

The U.S. is as stable as it gets. It has been one continuous republic and has 250 years of legal stability and a history of paying its debts. It has 4.2% GDP growth, with the largest economy in the world and growing.

Your ruler is no longer following the rules of law, nor the foundational constitution. USA ended with their declaration of dictatorship and the failure of your houses/legislature/military to act against that and defend the Constitution.

I can't see how, since the end of habeas corpus, you can claim legal stability.

Your leader is World renowned for reneging on debts and is demanding bribes for companies to operate.

Isn't borrowing through the roof to pay for things like your stasi?

Daily those stasi are murdering and disappearing people seemingly attempting to foment an excuse to escalate the violence.

I don't know how that knife edge can look anything like stable to you.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#277

Post by echelon » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

RealityVoid wrote: post #248

echelon wrote: post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Consequently, Trump’s approach is the only way forward. It's the DoD. Prior to Trump's actions, the American-led "world order" seemed to work, even if we couldn't get China to agree to a "Bretton Woods 2.0". Biden tried diplomacy with the EU. He tried to get them to agree to a renewed US-led world order, but it wasn't working. The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, w…

> The EU decided to play the US and China against each other to improve its own standing, which is why the US is now moving away from the EU. This is sanewashig this whole thing. The fact is, the US is moving away from the EU because Trump doesn't like democracies. It's that simple. You have a large percentage of your population in what is essentially a cult and you have givem them the reigns.

> This is sanewashig this whole thing.

This was being called back during the Biden admin and before Trump even ran again.

Back during the Obama admin, even!

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/no-piv...

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/us-pivot-asia/

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/europe-biggest-...

If the US can't build strong coalitions with Europe, it wants to spend its energy elsewhere.

Even pop-geopolitik wonk Peter Zeihan was pointing this out during Covid. I can't find his videos, but this has been top of mind for a lot of people for a very long time. These are anti-Trump people, too.

Multipolarity means instability, violence, fights over resources, fights over trade. Post-WWII was unusually (relatively) stable.

The US can turtle up, just like it did before WWII. It doesn't share a land border with any other major powers, unlike European and Asian countries. It commands the two oceans on its sides (and soon Arctic), and doesn't need anyone else - this was the US' defense posture since its founding.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#278

Post by qaq » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:35 PM UTC

Jtsummers wrote: post #96

touwer wrote: post #51

The US century is already over. It's just that a lot of US citizens don't see that. De-dollarization will happen when one is a traitor to it's allies

Many of us see it, but many others seem to be embracing it and trying to hasten it for reasons unknown. They pine for the glory days of post-WWII US hegemony but are actively undoing the institutions that were instrumental in US economic and political power at that time. They have no coherent world view, they are severely confused, but unfortunately numerous.

Well people pushing for this have a world view. They see a bipolar world with China dominating Asia, US dominating it's hemisphere and Europe fending for itself. They also have major crypto holdings so instability of both major currencies benefits them financially.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#279

Post by czhu12 » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:35 PM UTC

The ultimate check and balance was always supposed to be the US consumer. It seems any major disruption to purchasing power will result in a backlash large enough to undo any policy and administration.

I’d still bet that any sudden movements in this direction will be checked

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#280

Post by RealityVoid » Tue, Jan 20, 2026, 5:35 PM UTC

BowBun wrote: post #86

Just last week, I was accused on HN of "not knowing what I'm talking about" when sharing data showing, and my interpretation of, a declining US dollar globally. It is so obvious in the context of globalization: countries seeking power will chip away at fiscal dominance of others with a thousand cuts. Why wouldn't they? Especially after years of getting bullied. So many people are so dependent on this reality that I t…

Yes, people are in denial about these things. I'm still salty for the time I posted I believe the covid money printing will lead to inflation and I was down-voted for it.