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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

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Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#271

Post by nostrademons »

SiempreViernes wrote: post #146
moffkalast wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the military and public would not want to die in a nuclear inferno to defend national sovereignty Erm, it's kind of demanded for people to go out and die to defend national sovereignty in nations that have a draft. For myself, I'd prefer to be vaporized than bleed out in a trench if it really comes down to it.

Realistically speaking you'll die of an infected and untreated burn wound though, the severe blast and burn area is just much much bigger than the fancy "everything just goes poof" core.

Realistically speaking you're going to die of starvation or get shot by marauding gangs, or die of cancer a few decades later from radiation in the food change. NukeMap [1] has good visualizations of the relative fireball vs. blast vs. thermal radiation vs. fallout radiuses. One thing that stands out: most of the suburbs is going to survive the initial nuclear exchange. At worst, they'll have a few broken windows.

The problem is that if you eliminate ~20% of a nation's population, supply chains, continuity of government, and the economy aren't going to last long. Social organization breaks down much more widely than people die. The resultant pullback of all the trapping of society - reliable food supply, clean water, transportation infrastructure, electricity, heat - is going to kill many more people than the nukes will.

[1] https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#272

Post by jojobas »

the_af wrote: post #261
jojobas wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China, Cuba and Russia sent him air defences and some personal guards. What would China's millions do if Kim was kidnapped? Invade Seoul that had no say in it?

From where would an hypothetical operation to kidnap Kim be launched? Likely from SK or Japan, right? So yes, China could retaliate. The operation against Maduro was launched from countries in the region aligned with the US.

Us has these nifty things called aircraft carriers, which were used to capture Maduro as well. They can be in international waters, the choppers fly quite far. China would not retaliate against the US.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#273

Post by pbhjpbhj »

monocasa wrote: post #134
sroussey wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia promised not to invade if Ukraine gave up the nukes.

To be the devil's advocate, I don't think Russia foresaw a situation that had Ukraine looking to join NATO right after NATO had been used offensively for the first time ever to put its thumb on the scale of a civil war that didn't involve NATO countries.

If Putin didn't want NATO getting involved if he started a war there's one special trick he could have played! He could have not started a war ...

The only reason Ukraine joining NATO is a problem is if Putin/Russia (or someone else) wants to attack them.

I know there's a real risk of peaceful trade, mutual alliance, humanity, and democracy from breaking out in such circumstances but somehow I think the risk might be worth it for the billions of us who aren't completely fucked up megalomaniacs.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#274

Post by ksynwa »

delichon wrote: post #229
yakbarber wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there's a fair argument to make that a nation that drops a nuclear bomb on a city isn't "civilized"

The high end of the range of death estimates by the two atomic bombs is around 246,000. The estimated range of US military deaths from an invasion of Japan (Operation Downfall) was 250,000 to 1,000,000, and another 5 to 10 million Japanese. Dropping nukes was both barbaric and the more civilized option. Oppenheimer et al. deserve their acclaim. Japan attacked the US first, and by Hiroshima the US had 110,000 dead in…

It wasn't the a civilised option. Japan would have lost and surrendered with or without nukes. The USA nuked two cities just to demonstrate their nuclear capabilities to the Soviets.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#275

Post by jojobas »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #265
jojobas wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

What's Trump's kill count at, just to move media focus away from the Trump-Epstein files.

Nowhere near Maduro's by any reasonable threshold or metric. Not even the most hardcore TDS in-patients claim otherwise.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#276

Post by johncolanduoni »

tialaramex wrote: post #250
johncolanduoni wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In principle, it means you could run multiple sites from the same IP and someone intercepting traffic to that IP (but not the client’s DNS path) couldn’t tell what site each connection was to. It mostly makes sense for CDNs, where the same IP will be used for many sites. If you don’t use a CDN at all, the destination IP leaks what site you’re trying to connect to (if the domain is well known). If you use a CDN withou…

Even for China so-called "overblocking" where to censor a small thing you have to block a much larger thing, is a real concern with these technologies. There's a real trade here, you have to expend effort and destroy potential and in some cases the reward isn't worth it. You can interpret ECH as an effort to move the ratio, maybe China was willing to spend $5000 and annoy a thousand people to block a cartoon site cri…

That requires the client to only emit ECH, even if the ISP-provided (and therefore government controlled) DNS blocks HTTPS/SVCB records. China can easily make the default for a browser in China be to never even try to use ECH as well. Then they'll only annoy people trying to actively circumvent their system. They already do TCP sessionization to extract the SNI domain. Detecting ECH and then just dropping the connection at L3 is functionally equivalent.

In theory, sites could eventually require ECH to serve anything at all. But we're very far from that.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#277

Post by anonymous908213 »

jojobas wrote: post #272
the_af wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From where would an hypothetical operation to kidnap Kim be launched? Likely from SK or Japan, right? So yes, China could retaliate. The operation against Maduro was launched from countries in the region aligned with the US.

Us has these nifty things called aircraft carriers, which were used to capture Maduro as well. They can be in international waters, the choppers fly quite far. China would not retaliate against the US.

That is a bold assertion to make considering China literally did retaliate against the US in North Korea once already, to the tune of war. Kidnapping heads of states is an act of war. Venezuela can't defend itself, but China certainly will do whatever is necessary to secure its vassal if the alternative is NK collapsing and having US military bases on its border.

You also rule out the possibility of an invasion of Seoul, as though it would be "unfair" -- when you're advocating for and actively in the process of tearing whatever remains of the concept of international law to shreds, what makes you think PRC would be inclined to play nice?

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#278

Post by pbhjpbhj »

jojobas wrote: post #275
pbhjpbhj wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's Trump's kill count at, just to move media focus away from the Trump-Epstein files.

Nowhere near Maduro's by any reasonable threshold or metric. Not even the most hardcore TDS in-patients claim otherwise.

Well, that's fine then, as long as the dictator you support murdered fewer people.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#279

Post by jojobas »

hollerith wrote: post #194
throw-the-towel wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But note that happened in rhe 1950s, when Mao was in power and the PRC was an upstart separatist regime with very limited recognition. Now China may want to act very differently.

The reason Mao helped Pyongyang still applies: namely, it would make China less secure to have on its border a regime allied to a great power other than China.

They already have a border with Pakistan and got exactly zero problems from it (if anything, China is the one to stir up shit on that border). You seem to be repeating Putin-style propaganda points. Stalin and Mao were never threatened by the West really, that was part of the Marx-mandated global commie land grab.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#280

Post by drnick1 »

SchemaLoad wrote: post #150
johnisgood wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, so you do not leak the host through DNS with this? I have not checked it out yet.

Encrypted DNS has existed for quite a while now through DNS over HTTPS, the missing link was that to connect to a website, you first had to send the server the hostname in plaintext to get the right public key for the site. So someone listening on the wire could not see your DNS requests but would effectively still get the site you connected to anyway. The new development (encrypted client hello) is you no longer hav…

> blocking websites very difficult if they use shared services like cloudflare or cloud VPS hosting.

I see this as a very good development and a big win for privacy. I have been running my own DNS server for years to prevent passive logging, but could basically do nothing against the SNI leak.

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