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Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

antirez.com

271–280 of 383 posts

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#271

I'm impressed that such a short post can be so categorically incorrect. > For years, despite functional evidence and scientific hints accumulating, certain AI researchers continued to claim LLMs were stochastic parrots > In 2025 finally almost everybody stopped saying so. There is still no evidence that LLMs are anything beyond "stochastic parrots". There is no proof of any "understanding". This is seeing faces in cl…

Strongly agree with this comment. Decoder-only LLMs (the ones we use) are literally Markov Chains, the only (and major) difference is a radically more sophisticated state representation. Maybe "stochastic parrot" is overly dismissive sounding, but it's not a fundamentally wrong understanding of LLMs.

The RL claims are also odd because, for starters, RLHF is not "reinforcement learning" based on any classical definition of RL (which almost always involve an online component). And further, you can chat with anyone who has kept up with the RL field, and quickly realize that this is also a technology that still hasn't quite delivered on the promises it's been making (despite being an incredibly interesting area of research). There's no reason to speculate that RL techniques will work with "agents" where they have failed to achieve wide spread success in similar domains.

I continue to be confused why smart, very technical people can't just talk about LLMs honestly. I personally think we'd have much more progress if we could have conversations like "Wow! The performance of a Markov Chain with proper state representation is incredible, let's understand this better..." rather than "AI is reasoning intelligently!"

I get why non-technical people get caught up in AI hype discussions, but for technical people that understand LLMs it seems counter productive. Even more surprising to me is that this hype has completely destroyed any serious discussions of the technology and how to use it. There's so much oppurtunity lost around practical uses of incorporating LLMs into software while people wait for agents to create mountains of slop.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#272
post #127

LLMs have certainly become extremely useful for Software Engineers, they're very convincing (and pleasers, too) and I'm still unsure about the future of our day-to-day job. But one thing that has scared me the most, is the trust of LLMs output to the general society. I believe that for software engineers it's really easy to see if it's being useful or not -- We can just run the code and see if the output is what we e…

The issue you're overlooking is the scarcity of experts. You're comparing the current situation to an alternative universe where every person can ask a doctor their questions 10 times a day and instantly get an accurate response. That is not the reality we're living in. Doctors barely give you 5 minutes even if you get an appointment days or weeks in advance. There is just nobody to ask. The alternatives today are 1)…

Chronologically, our main sources of information have been:

1. People around us

2. TV and newspapers

3. Random people on the internet and their SEO-optimized web pages

Books and experts have been less popular. LLMs are an improvement.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#273

Seems they also want some AI money[0]. Guess, I'll keep using Valkey. [0] https://redis.io/redis-for-ai/

Conflict of interest and disclosure posts are frequently downvoted.

You mean flagged.

Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conflict of interest and disclosure posts are frequently downvoted.

You mean flagged. Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Ah, so you just went through my history and downvoted everything in sight! Thanks for confirming.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue you're overlooking is the scarcity of experts. You're comparing the current situation to an alternative universe where every person can ask a doctor their questions 10 times a day and instantly get an accurate response. That is not the reality we're living in. Doctors barely give you 5 minutes even if you get an appointment days or weeks in advance. There is just nobody to ask. The alternatives today are 1)…

> Much more important also is that LLMs don't try to scam you, don't try to fool you, don't look out for their own interests. When the appreciable-fraction-of-GDP money tap turns off, there going to be enormous pressure to start putting a finger on the scale here. And AI spew is theoretically a fantastic place to insert almost subliminal contextual adverts on a way that traditional advertising can only dream about. I…

> Imagine if it could start gently shilling a particular brand of antidepressant if you started talking to it about how you're feeling lonely and down. I'm not saying you should do that, but people definitely do.

Doctors already shill for big pharma. There are trust issues all the way down.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was happening well before LLMs, though. If anything, I have hope that LLMs might break some people out of their echo chambers if they ask things like "do vaccines cause autism?"

> I have hope that LLMs might break some people out of their echo chambers Are LLMs "democratized" yet, though? If not, then it's just-as-likely that LLMs will be steered by their owners to reinforce an echo-chamber of their own. For example, what if RFK Jr launched an "HHS LLM" - what then?

... nobody would take it seriously? I don't understand the question.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean flagged. Please don't post insinuations about astroturfing, shilling, brigading, foreign agents, and the like. It degrades discussion and is usually mistaken. If you're worried about abuse, email hn@ycombinator.com and we'll look at the data. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Ah, so you just went through my history and downvoted everything in sight! Thanks for confirming.

I don't follow? I didn't flag you; you were remarking on a previous comment alleging shillage from 'antirez, and I'm pointing out that the behavior you say is "downvoted" is actually a black-letter guideline violation. People flag those posts.

Another one, though:

Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Much more important also is that LLMs don't try to scam you, don't try to fool you, don't look out for their own interests. When the appreciable-fraction-of-GDP money tap turns off, there going to be enormous pressure to start putting a finger on the scale here. And AI spew is theoretically a fantastic place to insert almost subliminal contextual adverts on a way that traditional advertising can only dream about. I…

> Imagine if it could start gently shilling a particular brand of antidepressant if you started talking to it about how you're feeling lonely and down. I'm not saying you should do that, but people definitely do. Doctors already shill for big pharma. There are trust issues all the way down.

> Doctors already shill for big pharma.

This is not the norm worldwide.

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#279

I'm impressed that such a short post can be so categorically incorrect. > For years, despite functional evidence and scientific hints accumulating, certain AI researchers continued to claim LLMs were stochastic parrots > In 2025 finally almost everybody stopped saying so. There is still no evidence that LLMs are anything beyond "stochastic parrots". There is no proof of any "understanding". This is seeing faces in cl…

Strongly agree with this comment. Decoder-only LLMs (the ones we use) are literally Markov Chains, the only (and major) difference is a radically more sophisticated state representation. Maybe "stochastic parrot" is overly dismissive sounding, but it's not a fundamentally wrong understanding of LLMs. The RL claims are also odd because, for starters, RLHF is not "reinforcement learning" based on any classical definiti…

>Decoder-only LLMs (the ones we use) are literally Markov Chains

Real-world computers (the ones we use) are literally finite state machines

Re: Reflections on AI at the End of 2025

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue you're overlooking is the scarcity of experts. You're comparing the current situation to an alternative universe where every person can ask a doctor their questions 10 times a day and instantly get an accurate response. That is not the reality we're living in. Doctors barely give you 5 minutes even if you get an appointment days or weeks in advance. There is just nobody to ask. The alternatives today are 1)…

Two MAJOR issues with your argument. > where every person can ask a doctor their questions 10 times a day and instantly get an accurate response. Why in god's name would you need to ask a doctor 10 questions every day? How is this in any way germane to this issue? In any first-world country you can get a GP appointment free of charge either on the day or with a few days' wait, depending on the urgency. Not to mention…

> In any first-world country you can get a GP appointment free of charge

Are you really under the assumption that this is a first-world perk?

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