Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality • Hacker News Board

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#271

Post by HaZeust » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 9:36 PM UTC

triceratops wrote: post #202

blindriver wrote: post #42

They define unvaccinated as anyone in the study who didn't get their first dose by Nov 2021. That feels like a pretty tight window to me. I don't think they checked to see if those "unvaccinated" people got vaccinated during the 4 year followup, especially given the mandates that forced people to get them.

How would they calculate 4 year all-cause mortality on people who got vaccinated after Nov 2021? In case you haven't looked at a calendar recently, it's December 2025 now.

They excluded initial doses before May 2021, as well; in case you look at a calendar - that fits the criteria. Something doesn't square.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#272

Post by y-c-o-m-b » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 9:36 PM UTC

sdo72 wrote: post #247

I don't consider myself an anti-vaxxer. But I do have doubt in vaccines especially mRNA vaccines nowadays, and I wish these studies do more than just this. I have 4 kids, and 3 of them got vaccinated for the covid (1 is a baby 2 years old) for the very first time with Delta. They struggle for weeks to recover, they get tired, they seem to have heart related symptoms. Eventually, those went away after months. The baby…

I'm having a hard time following your second paragraph, but I don't see where you're questioning the cause of these issues to be covid itself instead of the vaccines?

That's my biggest problem with the "I now have X problem after the vaccine" crowd; quick to blame the vaccine, but they never question whether it was the virus itself that caused it.

My dad is one of these people and it infuriates me to no end that he defaults to "vaccine bad" and not his irresponsible behavior during the height of the pandemic which caused him to get very sick from the virus itself. Nor the fact that he had a very visible lyme disease rash 20 years ago and refused to get treatment because "MDs bad". He's quick to blame his neurological disease on the covid vaccine though, so frustrating.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#273

Post by tzs » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 9:40 PM UTC

andreygrehov wrote: post #169

ceejayoz wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They aren't lying , in the sense that "Hitler provided free food, transportation, and housing to Europe's Jews" isn't technically a lie . They are using a technically correct piece of data to deeply mislead you. Other pieces of data readily available to us reveal the sleight of hand.

Okay, let's run a proof by contradiction. Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality and the 10 deaths are not real or not proven. What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit? If he just wanted to scare people for no reason, the rational move i…

> What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit?

That's never bothered him before. Vaccines cause autism. WiFi causes DNA changes and opens up the blood-brain barrier allowing toxins into the brain. Chemtrails. HIV is not a major cause of AIDS, with lifestyle and drugs (particularly amyl nitrate) being the major causes.

> Inventing a fake danger out of junk data brings him zero benefit and enormous political cost. That only makes sense if the internal FDA review actually found something real and alarming.

Making fake dangers out of junk data is why he has political power in the first place.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#274

Post by Aloisius » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 9:47 PM UTC

andreygrehov wrote: post #66

dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

FDA is imposing stricter vaccine protocols due to children deaths linked to Covid-19 vaccine-related myocarditis [1]. [1] https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-polit...

Both of these are true: 1) Vaccines kill people. 2) Vaccines save lives.

That's why we evaluate relative risk. The vaccines that we recommend are significantly safer than not being vaccinated at all, for the population as a whole.

This isn't limited to vaccines of course. Everything from antibiotics to defibrillators to car airbags can kill people too, but it's extremely rare compared to how often they save lives.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#275

Post by binary132 » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 10:00 PM UTC

CrossVR wrote: post #249

binary132 wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Questioning the dominant narrative was in fact censured.

I believed in the lab leak theory so for me getting the vaccine was a no brainer. I could get infected by one of two things developed in a lab, only one of which had clinical trails on humans. I went with the clinically tested option.

perfectly understandable and you’ve described a reasonable decision-making process

any reasonable person should be able to recognize that the alternative hypothesis was not an equally accepted decision

many people chose severe penalties rather than participate in a sudden worldwide field trial of mRNA vaccination by indemnified pharmaceutical companies, and in some parts of the world were not even given that choice.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#276

Post by cogman10 » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 10:04 PM UTC

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #96

technothrasher wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> would you behave any different than a skeptic? It is unclear what you mean by "skeptic"? Are you speaking of rational skepticism, or reactionary denial?

What if only the second type exists, but they always claim to be the first?

The acid test is if when presented with new evidence, someone is willing to change their opinion or if they simply retreat and double down on their skepticism.

It can be really hard to abandon a false belief. Especially if you take the time and effort to shore it up with bad data. It starts with recognizing that everyone, including yourself, is wrong about something.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#277

Post by oxag3n » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 10:06 PM UTC

I'm a bit uneasy about so many people being pro-science and still falling into all the fallacies scientific method tried to address.

Disclaimer: I'm pro vaccine, I do think Covid vaccines saved a lot of lives. I still think the risk is relatively low even after getting an onset of auto-immune disease 3 days after the shot (diagnosis confirmed 2 years after it started after mRNA booster) and sister in law getting another auto-immune months after the vaccine (also confirmed diagnosis by now).

I did read the article and while deaths from Covid were clearly lower in vaccinated group, the sample selection has signs of various problems, starting from representation (why significantly more disadvantaged groups in unvaccinated group), to results like external causes of mortality 25% lower in the vaccinated group. 32% lower deaths from transport crashes - clearly healthy/selection bias.

Such studies bring nothing to pro-science crowd and give anti-vaccine propaganda another advantage.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#278

Post by tripletao » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 10:06 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #266

trts wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

most of the critics of this particular vaccine are the ones that took it. either the people who got covid anyway or were injured by it. it was incredibly destructive for trust in the medical establishment to oversell / mandate it and market aggressively as "safe and effective". while most vaccine risks are in the 10s per 100k or 1M, nearly everybody knows somebody else who had an adverse reaction to one of the covid…

> who got covid anyway I took it in 2020, and have taken booster shots. I got COVID... This year. I felt like shit for two weeks, was fatigured for a month, and had a lingering cough for two. Nobody's promised them that they won't get COVID after taking it. What is promised is that on the whole, they'd be less likely to get sick, get milder symptoms if they do get sick, and be less likely to require hospitalization o…

Here's Biden in 2021:

> You’re not going to — you’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.

https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/speeches-...

Perhaps any statement in that context should be assumed to be oversimplified; but I don't think I can fault someone for taking words to mean what they literally say. The COVID vaccines look great so far on balance, but they absolutely were oversold to the public. We'll pay the price in public confidence for at least a generation.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#279

Post by raddan » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 10:06 PM UTC

binary132 wrote: post #242

raddan wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume that you mean "censored" and not "censured" (different thing), but it was not, in fact, censored. It was entirely in the open. However, the information was definitely not distilled effectively for the average layperson. I remember thinking at the time that the CDC was seriously ham-handed when it came to communicating with the general public. I even initially blamed the Trump administration, but when the Bid…

No. Questioning the dominant narrative was in fact censured.

Hardly. I heard this “questioning the dominant narrative” over and over again. Disagreement is not censure. As far as I am aware, the only people who faced any penalties at all were doctors who went so far outside the realm of evidence-based medicine that they caused demonstrable harm and therefore had their licenses revoked. Which is good.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#280

Post by trts » Fri, Dec 05, 2025, 10:07 PM UTC

vkou wrote: post #266

trts wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

most of the critics of this particular vaccine are the ones that took it. either the people who got covid anyway or were injured by it. it was incredibly destructive for trust in the medical establishment to oversell / mandate it and market aggressively as "safe and effective". while most vaccine risks are in the 10s per 100k or 1M, nearly everybody knows somebody else who had an adverse reaction to one of the covid…

> who got covid anyway I took it in 2020, and have taken booster shots. I got COVID... This year. I felt like shit for two weeks, was fatigured for a month, and had a lingering cough for two. Nobody's promised them that they won't get COVID after taking it. What is promised is that on the whole, they'd be less likely to get sick, get milder symptoms if they do get sick, and be less likely to require hospitalization o…

In a March 29 2021, MSNBC interview, Rochelle Walensky stated publicly that CDC data suggested "vaccinated people do not carry the virus" and "don't get sick". a knowingly false statement at the time and at best an inexcusable error from the head of that agency.

I also had covid this year, zero boosters, had a mild fever and sniffle for two days. not sure what you are demonstrating with this anecdote. or what goalposts you think I moved. the "milder symptom" stuff all came long after it was obvious that the covid shots were not doing what had been promised. that is what I would call moving the goalposts