He’s clearly right, but shares could take a really long time before they actually come back to reality.
Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
271–280 of 352 posts
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#272His track record since “the big short” has been horrific. That’s the problem with being a perma-bear, eventually the market dips but you missed out on extraordinary gains vastly out weighing your negative thesis. It’s a hellva lot easier to be bullish American companies then try and time draw downs. Doesn’t make any sense.
> His track record since “the big short” has been horrific. Has it? I couldn't find the returns for his fund. Since you have them can you post them and highlight what about them are horrific?
- In late 2020, Scion sold its entire stake in GameStop. Scion missed out of the GameStop short squeeze which occurred only a few months later. Its 5.3% stake would have been worth over $1.5 billion at its height.
- In May 2021, Scion disclosed it acquired put options on Tesla shares.
- In August 2023, it was reported Scion anticipated a stock market crash and acquired $1.6 billion worth of put options to bet against the ETFs that tracked the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100.
- Scion also was noted to have held a large put option against the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#273You don't just need to decide that Nvidia is overvalued by the market and will crash in price to make money on a short position. You need to time the crash. If you're off, it could still crash and you could spend more money sustaining the position than you'd make. Or you could end up getting margin called, not just by semi-impotent private investors as Michael Burry was, but by the platform you're trading on itself.…
These are puts, you buy them, they have a fixed expiration date at which point they will be worthless if the price is above the strike price. Fixed down side, upside is $100 per contract per dollar the stock is below the strike at expiry. You can also sell them before then, and price depends on time to expiry, volatility, and distance to the strike price. See Black-Scholes model for more info.
Why do you have to come with facts to ruin his fan fiction porn about Burry getting margin called?
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#274He’s clearly right, but shares could take a really long time before they actually come back to reality.
He's not clearly right on Nvidia. People have been saying "it's clearly overvalued" for years now. And it just keeps growing at an insane pace and quite frankly their position in the market isn't really being eroded by anyone. There are hopes and dreams, but little real competition.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
> His track record since “the big short” has been horrific. Has it? I couldn't find the returns for his fund. Since you have them can you post them and highlight what about them are horrific?
- In late 2020, Scion sold its entire stake in GameStop. Scion missed out of the GameStop short squeeze which occurred only a few months later. Its 5.3% stake would have been worth over $1.5 billion at its height. - In May 2021, Scion disclosed it acquired put options on Tesla shares. - In August 2023, it was reported Scion anticipated a stock market crash and acquired $1.6 billion worth of put options to bet against…
First, I appreciate the response.
However, nothing about any of those points indicate his performance has been horrific.
All that matters are his returns against his reference index. That's the only relevant measure.
EDIT I did manage to find his returns via chatgpt and the OP is correct that they haven't been great in some periods, but his last 5 year average is +85% which isn't bad, not great, but not bad.
He is also up about 10% over the past year, so not great and not terrible, he's mid as the kids say.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, but premiums on NVDA and PLTR are not small as premiums go. He’s still going to be spending a huge chunk.
> premiums on NVDA and PLTR are not small as premiums go. He’s still going to be spending a huge chunk He may be. We may also only be seeing parts of the trade.
@michaeljburry - 2:04 PM · Nov 4, 2025 https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1985709760272908614
Fake news! I am not 5’6” (not that there is anything wrong with that).
And journalists reporting on 13Fs, none more fake.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#277Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yes, but I haven't seen anything from AI technology to suggest it's going to live up to the hype in the short term. I'm not saying Burry is completely accurate in this case, but the draw down could be quite big. GPT-4 was released in early 2023. Back then AI maximalists were saying AGI is near. We're approaching early 2026 and we obviously aren't anywhere close to anything any reasonable person would consider AGI. Bu…
Have you tried claude code? I despise AI to my bones but even I can’t say claude code is not impressive. If any anthropic reps read this, I think you guys, while probably better than open AI and meta, possibly Google, are delusional and are more likely to destroy the world than create infinite human life.
I have and it is. But I did acknowledge that in the previous post. I just don't think software development tools like Claude Code, while great, and I wouldn't want to back to life without them, are going to recoup all this investment. We need like 10 Claude Codes for different aspects of work and life. Then we're getting somewhere...
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#278He’s clearly right, but shares could take a really long time before they actually come back to reality.
He's not clearly right on Nvidia. People have been saying "it's clearly overvalued" for years now. And it just keeps growing at an insane pace and quite frankly their position in the market isn't really being eroded by anyone. There are hopes and dreams, but little real competition.
Especially if you take the view that AI is the new compute. There so many chips that need to get upgraded Thats maybe one of the largest TAMs of all time that hasn't even been touched at this point.
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have you tried claude code? I despise AI to my bones but even I can’t say claude code is not impressive. If any anthropic reps read this, I think you guys, while probably better than open AI and meta, possibly Google, are delusional and are more likely to destroy the world than create infinite human life.
I have and it is. But I did acknowledge that in the previous post. I just don't think software development tools like Claude Code, while great, and I wouldn't want to back to life without them, are going to recoup all this investment. We need like 10 Claude Codes for different aspects of work and life. Then we're getting somewhere...
So you’re not buying the idea that with increased productivity those tools will quickly follow?
Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir
#280Burry nailing real estate - good for him! Burry nailing tech valuations? That one is a more finicky beast - super high risk almost infinite growth going forward - best of luck!