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OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

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Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#271
post #172

IPO is to leave someone holding the bag, right? The narrative has really changed from AGI, the most consequential technology, blabla. If I had that I would keep it private. If I wanted to cash out, I’d do an IPO. Is there a narrative that doesn’t make it seem like pump and dump?

They have 800M weekly active users that have yet to be monetized but enormous capital costs. It makes sense they'd be looking to raise large amounts of money in an IPO.

How many of these users will be able to be monitized is an unanswered question as of yet however.

API usage on the other hand has a clear path to monetization and as of right now Anthropic is looking a lot better than OpenAI there.

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have 800M weekly active users that have yet to be monetized but enormous capital costs. It makes sense they'd be looking to raise large amounts of money in an IPO.

How many of these users will be able to be monitized is an unanswered question as of yet however. API usage on the other hand has a clear path to monetization and as of right now Anthropic is looking a lot better than OpenAI there.

Everyone. People are becoming dependent on chatgpt. They literally cannot function professionally or even socially without it. They will pay their last 20-30 dollars if needed. It's literally like a drug especially when it's asking you if you want to followup/continue.

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Converting from a non-profit open source organisation to a for profit private company, and to be shareholder public company, is, in my humble opinion, extremely harmful for potentially the most impactful technology humans have created before. When companies are profit driven, the line must go up, shareholders need the line to go up, at all and any costs.

> When companies are profit driven, the line must go up, shareholders need the line to go up, at all and any costs How is that complaint separate from OpenAI having been started as a for-profit entity?

It's not bit when your IPO starts at 1 Trillion the number is starting at an extraordinary high bar. And I actually already do have a problem with OpenAI transitioning to a for profit company. But let's see how it plays out, out of our hands now.

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#274
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> that has nothing to do with the Bay Area and everything to do with accidents of history I think you’re wrong. But that’s irrelevant. The fact that it exists now is what gives it staying power. One of the surest bets I’ve seen in seed and Series A investing is when a market has one or two competitors in a cluster and the rest outside. The insiders win. Always. It’s the easiest bulldozing strategy that exists.

> I think you’re wrong. But that’s irrelevant. It's on you to prove the parent wrong and you provided nothing to explain why the Bay Area is special beyond history/staying power.

> It's on you to prove the parent wrong and you provided nothing to explain why the Bay Area is special beyond history/staying power

I’m literally saying it’s irrelevant due to incumbency effects. If someone is doing something AI outside the Bay Area, a decent business is to copy and outraise them.

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#275
post #172

IPO is to leave someone holding the bag, right? The narrative has really changed from AGI, the most consequential technology, blabla. If I had that I would keep it private. If I wanted to cash out, I’d do an IPO. Is there a narrative that doesn’t make it seem like pump and dump?

I was watching the OpenAI livestream yesterday.

Sam was saying they have a $1.4 tn financial obligation to build 30 GW worth of data centers https://youtu.be/ngDCxlZcecw?t=1179

That's a lot of money to raise given they have no earnings.

He also says they are talking about being able to build 1 GW a week at a cost of $20bn/GW

I find it all a bit worrying. Weren't we supposed to be careful with energy use to reduce CO2 emissions? Could the billions maybe better deployed to schools hospitals, housing and the like rather than chatbots?

Rather than a fictional paperclip maximising AI eating the world we have a chatbot maximising Altman trying to do so?

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#277
post #172

IPO is to leave someone holding the bag, right? The narrative has really changed from AGI, the most consequential technology, blabla. If I had that I would keep it private. If I wanted to cash out, I’d do an IPO. Is there a narrative that doesn’t make it seem like pump and dump?

IPO day would be a great time for someone else to release a revolution of an open model to the public...

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many of these users will be able to be monitized is an unanswered question as of yet however. API usage on the other hand has a clear path to monetization and as of right now Anthropic is looking a lot better than OpenAI there.

Everyone. People are becoming dependent on chatgpt. They literally cannot function professionally or even socially without it. They will pay their last 20-30 dollars if needed. It's literally like a drug especially when it's asking you if you want to followup/continue.

Everyone also uses Google, YouTube or Instagram. No one would ever pay for any of it though and it is financed through ads. So far it is unclear, if this is also a viable option for chatgpt.

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I am understanding things correctly, OpenAI could leave in the future - but CA can’t retroactively block the conversion in that case.

California is home to 1 in 8 Americans, and likely a much higher fraction of AI researchers, users and partner organizations to OpenAI (like Nvidia). The California AG has plenty of leverage beyond blocking/reversing the conversion. What leverage will OpenAI have after "leaving"[1] the California? 1. They're guaranteed to have an engineering office in the SF Bay. Not many of those folk will agree to relocate to Texas…

Yup the Tesla treatment. Can change HQ's all you want but the main engineering work, brains, and talent will be at a HQ in California no matter what. Sam will probably do this for brownie points with the current administration, it will be politicized news for a cycle, but after the dust settles the majority of non-admin people will still be working unchanged out of CA.

Re: OpenAI’s promise to stay in California helped clear the path for its IPO

#280
post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think you’re wrong. But that’s irrelevant. It's on you to prove the parent wrong and you provided nothing to explain why the Bay Area is special beyond history/staying power.

> It's on you to prove the parent wrong and you provided nothing to explain why the Bay Area is special beyond history/staying power I’m literally saying it’s irrelevant due to incumbency effects. If someone is doing something AI outside the Bay Area, a decent business is to copy and outraise them.

> I think you’re wrong. But that’s irrelevant. The fact that it exists now is what gives it staying power.

You said OP was wrong to say "that has nothing to do with the Bay Area and everything to do with accidents of history" but that it's irrelevant anyway because the area has incumbency effects. Those are 2 separate things, something that you claim to be wrong but irrelevant, and something you say is true.

I agree with the second point, incumbency is a heavy weight to dislodge. But why would OP be wrong to say there's nothing intrinsic to the place that give it power?

I think OP is completely correct, the Bay Area as a place itself isn't special, it's those historical accidental decisions that now make it a hard to dislodge incumbent. But this detail is very important because if "the place" doesn't have some intrinsic power, like some unique natural resource, geography, climate, etc. that just can't be replicated elsewhere, then it can be replicated elsewhere.

In fewer words, "the place" having something unique means immovability. Incumbency just means inertia. Inertia isn't what it use to be. Detroit was the place for building cars just a few decades ago. One accidental decision, one bad policy can send an incumbent on a slow roll down. The Bay Area itself has nothing that reasonably can't be replicated elsewhere, unlike for example an oil field which you have or you don't.

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