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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#271

Post by 0xWTF »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

My L7 and L8 colleagues at Google seem to be signaling next 2 years. Errors of -1 and +20 years. But the mood sorta seems like nobody wants to quit when they're building the test stand for the Trinity device.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#272

Post by guluarte »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

no, AI companies need to continue to say things like that and do "safety reports" (the only real danger of an llm is leaking sensitive data to a bad actor) to maintain hype and investment

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#273

Post by jppope »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

AGI has no technical definition- its marketing. it can happen at any time that Sam Altman or Elon Musk or whoever decide they want to market their product as AGI

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#274

Post by waffletower »

htrp wrote: post #127
no_wizard wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

FSD would like a word

As a full stack developer suffering from female sexual dysfunction who owns a Tesla, I am really confused about what you are trying to say.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#275

Post by dr_dshiv »

no_wizard wrote: post #96
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

“Moving the goalposts” in AI usually means the opposite of devaluing the term.

Peter Norvig (former research director at Google and author of the most popular textbook on AI) offers a mainstream perspective that AGI is already here: https://www.noemamag.com/artificial-general-intelligence-is-...

If you described all the current capabilities of AI to 100 experts 10 years ago, they’d likely agree that the capabilities constitute AGI.

Yet, over time, the public will expect AGI to be capable of much, much more.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#277

Post by SirMaster »

chrsw wrote: post #131
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

I think their definition of AGI is just about how many human jobs can be replaced with their compute. No scientific or algorithmic breakthroughs needed, just spending and scaling dumb LLMs on massive compute.

Shouldn't it mean all jobs? If there are jobs it can't replace then that doesn't sound very generally intelligent. If it's got general intelligence it should be able to learn to do any job, no?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#278

Post by awestroke »

notyourwork wrote: post #165
cjbarber wrote: post #14

> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO. This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by pu…

It’s odd to me in clouds you excluded AWS.

And included oracle first. OP is probably Larry

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#279

Post by Jcampuzano2 »

GolfPopper wrote: post #112
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

> Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly? I think it is near-certain that within two years a large AI company will claim it has developed AGI.

There are unironically people who claim we are already actually at AGI.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#280

Post by whynotminot »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #243
whynotminot wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is stupid. It would be possible to be infinitely arbitrary to the point of “AGI” never being reachable by some yard sticks while still performing most viable labor.

Is driving is infinitely arbitrary? It's one skill almost everyone on the planet can learn exceptionally easily - which Waymo is on pace to master, but a generalized LLM by itself is still very far from.

OP said all yardsticks and I said that was infinitely arbitrary… because it literally is infinitely arbitrary. You can conjure up an infinite amount of yardsticks.

As far as driving itself goes as a yardstick, I just don’t find it interesting because we literally have Waymo’s orbiting major cities and Teslas driving on the roads already right now.

If that’s the yardstick you want to use, go for it. It just doesn’t seem particularly smart to hang your hat on that one as your Final Boss.

It also doesn’t seem particularly useful for defining intelligence itself in an academic sort of way because even humans struggle to drive well in many scenarios.

But hey if that’s what you wanna use don’t let me stop you, sure, go for it. I have feeling you’ll need new goalposts relatively soon if you do, though.

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