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Harnessing America's heat pump moment

heatpumped.org

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Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#271

Post by glxxyz »

Ekaros wrote: post #270
glxxyz wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes the people selling solar systems all factor in aggressive future electricity increases, it's best to also see how it looks with more conservative rate increases. By my calculation in a reply above with the interest free solar loan it's an 8% return over 14.3 years.

Which to me is funny, when the electricity prices will clearly not rise when there is solar energy production from said panels. But might in other times.

I think the argument is that on average people are buying heat pumps and EVs faster they are installing solar panels but it’s not completely convincing though, power stations can be added.

Further north where I am solar can only ever be a small component of total electricity generation due to the dark snowy cloudy winter months with close to zero solar generation for weeks on end.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#272

Post by laurencerowe »

mattmaroon wrote: post #210
glxxyz wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite for me, much bigger ROI on the heatpump than solar. Rural property, 10 years old, ~3,500 sq ft + basement, in Canada where summer can be above 30C (86F) and winter below -30C (-20F). Electricity costs (Canadian) 7.6 ¢/kWh off-peak and 15.8 ¢/kWh on-peak here. I spent C$40K (about US$30k) on a ground source aka 'geothermal' heat pump to replace furnace powered by propane tank. I kept propane for on-d…

Solar in northernly climates is still not practical. (I’m Canada adjacent.)

Most of Canada isn’t very far north, Toronto is on the same latitude as Marseille. It’s just very cold in the winter.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#273

Post by conradev »

glxxyz wrote: post #256
Reason077 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks pretty good to me over 25 years. Not many safe/guaranteed investments that will reliably return 8% these days. And as utility rates will no doubt rise over time, savings in future years will be greater.

Yes the people selling solar systems all factor in aggressive future electricity increases, it's best to also see how it looks with more conservative rate increases. By my calculation in a reply above with the interest free solar loan it's an 8% return over 14.3 years.

I got solar for my parents in 2021 and the price increases were pretty aggressive recently: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU000072610

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#274

Post by lotsofpulp »

smnrchrds wrote: post #250
Merad wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The heat pump will always produce air that is warmer than the temp in the house, but as the temp outside drops the temp of the air coming out of the vents also drops. So on a very cold day when the house temp is say 70F, the system might only be putting out air that's 75-80F. The air coming out of the vents doesn't really _feel_ warm and it may take an hour or two to raise the temperature in the house when you wake u…

I see. Thanks for the explanation. So the system is slow to come up to the set temperature. Is it good at keeping the temperature though? After the house temp gets to 70, does it consistently stay at 70, or are there shortcomings in this aspect too?

That depends on the insulation and how much you open and close the doors and windows.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#275

Post by thelastgallon »

relaxing wrote: post #229
EngCanMan wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Umm, I encourage you to do that math a little closer. A contractor would have to; Come to your house to quote, and only land 1/4 quotes maybe. Schedule the workers Order the equipment. Get an electrical permit. Pay for the truck and all the tools. Insurance for the company and trucks. Advertising costs Warranty and callbacks I can assure you that this is not the get rich quick scheme you may think it is.

Look up private equity buying up HVAC firms. It is in fact a get rich scheme.

I don't know why you're being downvoted (it shows as slightly greyed out). This is true. I had a roommate who is a HVAC salesman. Very smooth talked. The 'HVAC' company offers free HVAC maintenance. They techs go in, do some stuff and they point out some problems. Sales guy goes in, smooth talks his way to 5K - 70K bill to most people. Of course, when something goes out and people don't have a choice (like in peak summer or winter), they make out like bandits.

Most of the local firms (Dick's local $town hvac/plumbing/electrical) are owned by massive PE firms (Saudi + other billionaires) which pretty much own the entire businesses all over US. They keep the local name to make people believe they are giving business to a local guy.

Another roommate of mine was a plumber.

The guys who do the actual work get paid close to nothing ($20 - $22/hour) and live on day to day basis.

Plumbing company quoted me $3000 to replace a broken water heater in the middle of peak winter. I paid my guy $300 for labor (heaters are $500 - $1000 from lowes depending on how long of warranty you want) and he was super happy for making a lot of money.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#276

Post by thelastgallon »

glxxyz wrote: post #256
Reason077 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks pretty good to me over 25 years. Not many safe/guaranteed investments that will reliably return 8% these days. And as utility rates will no doubt rise over time, savings in future years will be greater.

Yes the people selling solar systems all factor in aggressive future electricity increases, it's best to also see how it looks with more conservative rate increases. By my calculation in a reply above with the interest free solar loan it's an 8% return over 14.3 years.

Residential electricity rates have risen fast across the US—more than 30 percent on average since 2020 and almost double the rate of inflation: https://www.wired.com/story/power-bills-in-the-us-are-soarin...

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#277

Post by laurencerowe »

morshu9001 wrote: post #127
darth_avocado wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> most homeowners in california actually see operating cost parity or a slight decrease, even with super expensive electricity But you’re missing my first point though, installing a heat pump system comes with a price tag of tens of thousands of dollars. I’m not doing that if my operating cost is at parity or a slight decrease. It’s the same reason people are no longer incentivized to install solar. And to add to tha…

I feel like home solar makes no sense without subsidies, even now with economies of scale. Commercial solar may be a different story.

Home solar makes perfect sense in Australia - a market with similar Labour costs to California - because they do it for 1/3rd of the cost. It makes no sense in California when the subsidies alone are higher than the total costs for utility scale solar.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#278

Post by caminante »

thelastgallon wrote: post #266
caminante wrote: post #249

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm jealous of the learning and hobby project. Though, the returns are (edit: "not great") if the figures above INCLUDE net metering revenues. Heatpump = Negative IRR until y8 Solar = Negative IRR until y16 Heatpump + Solar = 0 NPV through y25 | 8% discount rate

I'm jealous of your financial learnings. However, your model is not accurate as it doesn't factor in the 4 degree improvement in comfort and indoor pollution from propane furnaces: Propane furnaces can cause indoor pollution through the release of pollutants like carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (\(NO_{2}\)), and benzene, which are byproducts of combustion. It also doesn't include the negative externalities bec…

I agree it's important to watch for these things.

For externalities or immediate health benefits, heatpumps are pretty defensible. However, solar isn't a saint. Rare earth/mineral mining is hazardous plus only a fraction of solar panels are getting recycled properly.

> this is doable in harsh Canadian winters with negligible solar and it breaks even

It's doable alright. OP got subsidies (See comment re: risk free loan and grants). Talk about externalities, this is definitely wealth transfer.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#279

Post by yxhuvud »

VWWHFSfQ wrote: post #42
mithr wrote: post #26

Electricity costs are a big factor in this, imo. Rates for my northeast town increased by ~25% in 2024 and are going up by another ~10% this year. It's a hard sell to spend a large amount of up-front money (even after rebates, which decreased this year) to convert to a system that will cost you more than you pay today, and may not work as well in cold weather (every heat pump company I talked to suggested keeping my…

A heat pump just makes no sense whatsoever for me in my northeast town. The electric bill alone would outpace the old propane bill, not to mention installation. And it won't even work during some of the coldest winter weeks when you _really_ need it to work. Maybe I would consider it if I was in, like, Nevada or somewhere.

It works just fine during winters if you do it properly and couple them with ducts that are a couple of hundred meters deep.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#280

Post by Epa095 »

laurencerowe wrote: post #272
mattmaroon wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar in northernly climates is still not practical. (I’m Canada adjacent.)

Most of Canada isn’t very far north, Toronto is on the same latitude as Marseille. It’s just very cold in the winter.

Most of Canada is quite north, but that most of Canadians are not far north ;-)
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