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OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

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Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#271

Post by wmf »

big_toast wrote: post #167
JCM9 wrote: post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

Is this more of an accounting thing? Is there some (tax?) efficiency where OpenAI could take money from another source, then pay it to Nvidia, and receive GPUs. But instead taking investment from Nvidia acts as a discount in some way. (In addition to Nvidia being realistically the efficient/sole supplier of an input OpenAI currently needs. So this gives 1. Nvidia an incentive to prioritize OpenAI and induces a win/wi…

It sounds like Nvidia has so much cash already that they would prefer to own x% of OpenAI instead.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#272

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

labrador wrote: post #131

For scale: The 1960's era US Navy submarine I served on had a 78MW reactor, so 10GW is 128 nuclear submarines

A big power station of any type is ~1GW. Nuclear is slow to build, so I'd have to guess natural gas.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#274

Post by bcrosby95 »

tonyhart7 wrote: post #237
Recursing wrote: post #211

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a better sense of scale: it's about 2% of the average US electricity consumption, and about the same as the average electricity consumption of the Netherlands (18 million people)

Wtf, and this is from 1 company How many atrophic,xAi,google,Microsoft would be???? having around 5% entire country infrastructure on AI hardware seems excessive no???

Around 5% in the next 5 years for AI alone sounds pretty in-line with projections I've seen.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#275

Post by mrandish »

JCM9 wrote: post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

> throwing more cards on a house of cards.

Nice metaphor! Huge bubbles usually get a historical name like "Tulip Craze" or "Dot Com Crash" and when this bubble bursts "House of Cards" is a good candidate.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#276

Post by switchers »

mountainriver wrote: post #174
vessenes wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost every model trained by the majors has paid for itself with inference fees. I’m not saying there isn’t a bubble, but I am saying if the researchers and strategists absolutely closest to the “metal” of realtime frontier models are correct that AGI is in reach, then this isn’t a bubble, it’s a highly rational race. One that large players seem to be winning right now.

The idea that it’s a bubble on the frontier model side is insane. AI assisted coding alone makes it the most valuable thing we’ve ever created.

Get your head out of the proverbial, a bullshitting machine that lets some developers do things faster if they modify how they develop isn't even close to the most valuable thing we've ever created.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#277

Post by wmf »

glitchc wrote: post #214
JCM9 wrote: post #108

This is throwing more cards on the house of cards. Nvidia is “investing” in OpenAI so OpenAI can buy GPUs from NVidia. Textbook “round tripping.” I generally like what’s been happening with AI but man this is gonna crash hard when reality sets in. We’re reaching the scary stage of a bubble where folks are forced to throw more and more cash on the fire to keep it going with no clear path to ever get that cash back. If…

Does this mean they pay for it through consumer GPU sales?

No, those are a drop in the bucket.

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#278

Post by dwaltrip »

treis wrote: post #219
GuB-42 wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really understand how it is round tripping. In the end, Nvidia will have OpenAI shares, which are valuable, and OpenAI will have GPUs, which are also valuable. It is not fake revenue, the GPUs will be made, sold at market price, and used, they are not intended to be bought back and sold to another customer. And hopefully, these GPUs will be put to good use by OpenAI so that they can make a profit, which will…

If OpenAI doesn't pan out than Nvidia has worthless OpenAI stock and OpenAI has a pile of mostly useless GPUs.

That’s still not round tripping?

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#279

Post by [deleted] »

vessenes wrote: post #208
mossTechnician wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which of these model-making companies have posted a profit? I'm not familiar with any.

They account internally for each model separately; Dario said they even think of each model as a separate company on Dwarkesh some time ago. Inference services are wildly profitable. Currently companies believe it’s economically sensible to plow that money into R&D / Investment in new models through training. For reference, oAI’s monthly revs are reportedly between $1b and $2b right now. Monthly. I think if you do a…

[deleted]

Re: OpenAI and Nvidia announce partnership to deploy 10GW of Nvidia systems

#280

Post by sindriava »

sylario wrote: post #221
vessenes wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost every model trained by the majors has paid for itself with inference fees. I’m not saying there isn’t a bubble, but I am saying if the researchers and strategists absolutely closest to the “metal” of realtime frontier models are correct that AGI is in reach, then this isn’t a bubble, it’s a highly rational race. One that large players seem to be winning right now.

The thing is that AI researchers that are not focused on only LLM do not seem to think it is in reach.

Demis Hassabis seems to think this and not only does he not focus only on LLMs, he got a nobel prize for a non-LLM system ;)
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