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US Intel

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Re: US Intel

#271
post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Add to this the fact that given the government is now propping up a poor performing company there's no possible reason to try to create a new domestic competitor. If you do and you start becoming successful, the government can just increase their "investment" in your chief competitor and shut you down. It's ludicrous.

The point of the article was that there's never going to be a new domestic competitor. It would take hundreds of billions in investment to get off the ground and build a fab from scratch, and they'd be in an even worse position than Intel is currently. No external customer would want to risk using them, and they don't have the internal demand of x86 to keep going on their own.

There are other alterntives to the US Gov taking a 10% stake (and it must be noted that this is for money already distributed to Intel via the CHIPS act, so it's tough to say how the gov having a 10% stake is really helping Intel here, there's no new investment involved and Intel needs ca$h). I agree with the article that there's a significant geopolitical risk to the status quo. I think it would've been better for the president & his economic staff to arrange a meeting of US companies that need foundry services and try to get them to a "come to Jesus" moment re the geopolitical risk to their current operations relying so heavily on Taiwan. The government role here shouldn't be to own Intel (or other companies) but to incentivize those large fab customers (Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, etc) to make a significant investment into Intel foundry services. Not sure what those incentives would look like - perhaps tax incentives. There's also the possibility that some kind of 3rd party consortium could be setup to run Intel. This way they're not trying to start from scratch (which would take too long and too much capital), but also allows those other investing companies to have some kind of control at a distance.

Re: US Intel

#274
post #87
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have developed an economy oriented around selling one another websites, and we are only belatedly noticing that none of our enemies seem to have followed.

It’s ridiculous. It’s so easy to find VC funding for software but heaven forbid you try and make agricultural innovations. Biotech is slightly better but still a struggle. Hardware only counts right now if it’s defense tech but even then people would rather have another SaaS.

We need regulation around how VCs work. They are in a house flipping game and nothing more, slapping on a bad kitchen remodel and then handing the hot potato onto the next sucker.

Re: US Intel

#275

To be honest, regardless of the government involvement or not, I have little hope for intel. Maybe they can, over time, have an AMD-esque comeback, but given their track record of the past few years I'm not hopeful. The Pentium -> Core2Duo was a great era for intel, but I feel like ever since then they've started a decline in both price/value proposition as well as just general hardware. The i-series was arguably pre…

And Core was a lucky happenstance for Intel as they were not innovating at all and fell behind, thank goodness their isreal lab was doing something other than P4 work. Even recently, we've seen that all intel can do is increase cores and increase power consumption, and they still can't compete. This is itanium all over again, because that is how intel functions.

Well, they do have N100 & co. which are very nice low power x86 devices... Not all is bad that carries their name. But the main question is can they succeed as foundry? We will see in a few years I guess.

Re: US Intel

#276
post #7

I’ll be honest: there is a very good chance this won’t work .... At the same time, the China concerns are real, Intel Foundry needs a guarantee of existence to even court customers, and there really is no coming back from an exit. There won’t be a startup to fill Intel’s place. The U.S. will be completely dependent on foreign companies for the most important products on earth, and while everything may seem fine for t…

If I may add my view as a formerly high-achieving semiconductor worker that Intel would benefit greatly from having right now, a lot of us pivoted to software and machine learning to earn more money. My first 2 years as a software engineer earned me more RSUs than a decade in semiconductors. Semiconductors is not prestigious work in the U.S., despite the strategic importance. By contrast, it is highly respected and r…

"I saw the best minds of my generation writing spam filters" - Neal Stephenson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TE0n_5qPmRM

Re: US Intel

#277
post #7

I’ll be honest: there is a very good chance this won’t work .... At the same time, the China concerns are real, Intel Foundry needs a guarantee of existence to even court customers, and there really is no coming back from an exit. There won’t be a startup to fill Intel’s place. The U.S. will be completely dependent on foreign companies for the most important products on earth, and while everything may seem fine for t…

I believe something similar is happening in drug development right now. It may take less than 5, 10, 15 years to see the impact to the US. But from someone who has a vantage point to see it across many parts of the industry, including having seen the evolution of Intel / TSMC, I think it is a very similar story. Right now is like 2007 (or maybe even a bit later) for therapeutics. In the future, we will look back on this year as the year we gave it up.

Re: US Intel

#278

the president unilaterally extorting 10% ownership out of a company isn't going to build the kind of system that competes with anyone. Big business can't really thrive under this kind of thing any more than corner stores can thrive under a protection racket.

Didn't the US pay $9.8 billion? Intel's market cap is $106 billion, so $9.8 billion for 10% is buying at a slight discount. If that data is correct, how did the US "extort" ownership? Look, I'm as terrified of Trump's overreach as the next guy. I could easily see him extorting partial ownership of companies. But I don't see this as being that. Can you make a convincing argument otherwise?

The US Government wanted companies to build fabs in the US so it offered them money to do it. Intel, which was one of those companies, but not the only one, took them up on the offer and was paid to begin construction on a fab in the US.

Normally when we pay businesses to do things we don't demand equity stakes in the businesses afterwards.

Notably, the biggest shareholders in Intel appear to be retirement funds of Americans - so Trump has just pilfered some money from the retirement accounts of Americans.

Re: US Intel

#279
post #203
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s ridiculous. It’s so easy to find VC funding for software but heaven forbid you try and make agricultural innovations. Biotech is slightly better but still a struggle. Hardware only counts right now if it’s defense tech but even then people would rather have another SaaS.

I'd say that VC funding may be an inappropriate tool for that. VCs want you to either grow fast, or fail fast. Not necessarily to bring profit fast, but to visibly capture the market (see Uber). Move fast, break things, rework things every week, trigger that wave of sign-ups. Agriculture is much slower, every iteration may be is a year, or (in tropical climates) half a year. Microelectronics is comparably slow, and e…

Yeah, it's almost as if prioritizing returns on investment over EVERYTHING!!! else has bad side-effects for the economy as a whole.

Re: US Intel

#280
post #176
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> systemically putting short term gains ahead of long term research That's more the stock market than the US government though. You could argue the US government tries to play a long game, and often the way the US plays that game is to let the free market decide (hands off, small government). It's definitely a valid strategy and has worked extremely well in a number of other industries, but for this specific niche, l…

It is clear that the government and wall street are generally of one mind on this. One recent specific way the government contributed to this is via the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017, which increased tax burden of R&D. They've also cut a lot of their own research funding (NIH, NSF). I can't make the argument that the government is "hands off, small government" because I simply don't see the evidence of that. T…

Taking 10% of Intel. Intel was already supposed to get this money and then retroactively were told to give up 10% for it
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