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Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

ecb.europa.eu

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Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#271

Post by wolvesechoes »

anal_reactor wrote: post #199
Roark66 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polish here, very much against adopting the euro until our standard of living and growth rate matches Germany (no at least not for next 10 years). Why? Because the disadvantages far out weight the benefits for developing countries. The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation. Surely the monetary policy will follow what is bes…

Another Polish here: truth is, whether we have a single currency or not doesn't matter as much as people think it does. For most people, it's about symbolism, not about practical economic consequences. I guarantee you that average person has no clue what it really means for the economy to adopt euro. BTW the argument "let's wait for our economy to catch up with Germany" is just deceitful because there will always be…

But EU becoming federation has far bigger challenges than Poland not adopting euro.

Adopting euro has political consequences, first and foremost, not "symbolical". It is quite sad that people and leaders in our country mostly conflate politics with symbols and gestures, because that is causing us to be what we are - losers.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#273

Post by _w1tm »

raxxorraxor wrote: post #224
Sammi wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is not democratically elected? The EU Parliament is directly elected. The EU Council is comprised of EU country head of states, which are all directly elected. The EU Council and EU Parliament then elect the EU Comission. Sounds democratic to me.

To you it may be democratic enough. Not for me and the parliament lacks legislative initiative which in reality means the commission steers the ship. It is more of a bureaucratic technocracy with democratic fig leaves. People often attribute competence to technocracies, but that is an illusion. Also I don't believe you can move up government function to layers above your national government and still call it represen…

> In reality the culture and circumstances of parliament members is too far removed from the voters. I also cannot know the other representatives, so my voting decision will always be restricted to a shallow popularity contest. But as explained, this doesn't matter, because the elected representatives cannot implement any agenda.

That’s an odd thing to say when there is a real chance of the commission failing a confidence vote this week. We might end up with a new commission due to the conservatives colluding with the far right to abandon the climate agenda entirely.

This is a very concrete consequence of the voters electing right-wing parliamentarians.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#274

Post by throw0101a »

decimalenough wrote: post #22

Credit where credit is due: the EU gets a lot of flack for being bureaucratic, hidebound, sclerotic, whatever, but the single currency has been a success and it's still expanding, 26 years after its creation. Also, the addition of Bulgaria means it's almost possible to travel from Spain to Greece entirely through the Eurozone, with only a thin sliver of Serbia or Macedonia in the way. (Assuming we include Montenegro…

> Credit where credit is due: the EU gets a lot of flack for being bureaucratic, hidebound, sclerotic, whatever, but the single currency has been a success and it's still expanding, 26 years after its creation.

For certain definitions of "success". The 2010s weren't such a great time:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_area_crisis

The EU isn't as integrated (e.g., labour mobility) as other currency areas, and so problems in one region are harder to fix.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#275

Post by wuschel »

Roark66 wrote: post #108
decimalenough wrote: post #22

Credit where credit is due: the EU gets a lot of flack for being bureaucratic, hidebound, sclerotic, whatever, but the single currency has been a success and it's still expanding, 26 years after its creation. Also, the addition of Bulgaria means it's almost possible to travel from Spain to Greece entirely through the Eurozone, with only a thin sliver of Serbia or Macedonia in the way. (Assuming we include Montenegro…

Polish here, very much against adopting the euro until our standard of living and growth rate matches Germany (no at least not for next 10 years). Why? Because the disadvantages far out weight the benefits for developing countries. The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation. Surely the monetary policy will follow what is bes…

Thank you for your interesting comment.

> In time things get more expensive much faster in countries that grow faster while incomes stay the same. This is a huge negative and this is on top of price increases happening on "day 1" due to rounding up during conversion.

Could you perhaps expand on this effect, ideally in a mechanistic manner, or point me towards a source that explains the influencing factors and outcomes? I am trying to understand the different processes at hand.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#276

Post by throw0101a »

remon wrote: post #263
Roark66 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polish here, very much against adopting the euro until our standard of living and growth rate matches Germany (no at least not for next 10 years). Why? Because the disadvantages far out weight the benefits for developing countries. The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation. Surely the monetary policy will follow what is bes…

Being able to buy groceries with euros is not a strong, or even related, argument to the point you're making. Even ignoring the real economic cost of having two currencies, there is no serious economist that would argue Poland joining the EUR zone is negative for Poland (as opposed to for stronger EU economies). Every single historic metric points in the other direction. Poland's economy is maturing and strengthening…

> Even ignoring the real economic cost of having two currencies, there is no serious economist that would argue Poland joining the EUR zone is negative for Poland (as opposed to for stronger EU economies). Every single historic metric points in the other direction.

The inability to set monetary policy is a strong argument. Just ask Greece (and Spain):

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_area_crisis

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#277

Post by rini17 »

nwellnhof wrote: post #214
Sammi wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is not democratically elected? The EU Parliament is directly elected. The EU Council is comprised of EU country head of states, which are all directly elected. The EU Council and EU Parliament then elect the EU Comission. Sounds democratic to me.

The EU Parliament is not democratically elected because votes from member states have a different weight. The election is free but not fair. It's also one of the few parliaments that can't propose laws on their own but can only veto laws proposed by the EU Commission. The powerful EU Commission being appointed by governments (and again only approved by the Parliament) is a form of executive federalism. This makes the…

In the US, votes in the congress, senate and president have exactly equal weights between states? Not an expert but I suspect we're in the kettle-pot area here. Not even getting into abysmal voting procedure/implementation which would be inconceivable in the EU.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#278

Post by throw0101a »

mmarq wrote: post #207
Roark66 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polish here, very much against adopting the euro until our standard of living and growth rate matches Germany (no at least not for next 10 years). Why? Because the disadvantages far out weight the benefits for developing countries. The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation. Surely the monetary policy will follow what is bes…

> The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation This is the point. Germany managed to set up a really independent central bank (which is a non- democratic, bureaucratic, etc… thingy) and inflation was at the target for decades. Italy, France, etc… didn’t, and inflation was 2-3 point above target and above the German levels. So…

> Germany managed to set up a really independent central bank (which is a non- democratic, bureaucratic, etc… thingy) and inflation was at the target for decades.

And Germany being overzealous in fiscal and monetary policy has stagnated growth and limited policy options. Look at all the rigmarole that had to be done so that Germany could start considering military spending to deal with the new global situation.

(Heck, if Republicans would actually be interested in fiscal discipline, perhaps they should move to Germany.)

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#279

Post by rsynnott »

nickslaughter02 wrote: post #272
avtolik wrote: post #213

I am honestly surprised how many people here think this is a bad idea. I wonder why is that.

EU is a sinking ship and more integration with it means more damage when it finally implodes.

I mean, I feel I have to point out that Eurosceptics have now been predicting the imminent death of the EU and its predecessors for over half a century at this stage. "It's doomed" is not the most compelling argument.

Re: Bulgaria to join euro area on 1 January 2026

#280

Post by weinzierl »

petre wrote: post #116
Roark66 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Polish here, very much against adopting the euro until our standard of living and growth rate matches Germany (no at least not for next 10 years). Why? Because the disadvantages far out weight the benefits for developing countries. The biggest issue is giving up one of the biggest instrument of control over the economy to a supra-national non-democratic organisation. Surely the monetary policy will follow what is bes…

You can't possibly compare Poland to Bulgaria with 1/8 Poland's GDP and 17% its population. For Bulgaria the Euro is completely fine, as the Lev has been pegged to the Deutche Mark and later the Euro for ages. It's exports are basically raw materials and grain. Most of the other stuff they produce is sold domestically. I think I've only seen Bulgarian sunflower oil, mineral water, ketchup and pasta in stores outside…

Bulgaria has a significant services sector. Not only tourism but it is a popular near-shoring destination for many western European countries, especially Germany.
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