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I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

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Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#271

Post by ponector »

tguvot wrote: post #175
esseph wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was one of the first non special operations troops to use a modern infantry-company sized drone (small, low cost) to guide conventional and guided artillery in 2008-9 for the US. Laser guided Excalibur rounds didn't come out until much later, same for the laser guided jdams. And the cost of those is much higher, plus logistical an deployment cost, than a FPV drone. Edit: I also don't know anybody that ever fired a…

there are now laser/gps guided mortars. probably still more expensive than drone but easier to deploy

GPS guided munitions like Excalibur are useless against peer adversary. Costs as much as 100 regular rounds and as 200+ FPV drones but has zero accuracy thanks to EW and jamming.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#272

Post by palata »

05 wrote: post #257
palata wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you add enough "if's", then surely everything is possible :-). I don't think we're anywhere near having drones that happily fly above a war zone, detect an interesting hangar, find a way to get inside and select a target inside. Currently they mostly fly FPV drones manually. The next basic step is to have "terminal engagement", where at some point they can select a target and the drone will fly autonomously to it…

Terminal guidance boards are already available on Aliexpress for $300-ish. Using YOLOv7 no less. The future is now.

Are you telling me that you can search for "terminal guidance" on AliExpress and find such boards?

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#273

Post by palata »

msgodel wrote: post #269
05 wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Terminal guidance boards are already available on Aliexpress for $300-ish. Using YOLOv7 no less. The future is now.

Yeah I think people overestimate how big yolo models are and how much compute costs.

The drone is 500$. If the board is 300$, it makes it a lot more expensive. What's the value of that board? How much does it help? Remember that you need to fly it with FPV to the place where the operator can select the target. So you have a radio link at some point, that can be jammed.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#274

Post by palata »

mopsi wrote: post #237
palata wrote: post #48

I see a lot of comments saying that "but the technology will improve". Sure, maybe. Or maybe it will be like Musk announcing what Teslas will be capable of in 6 months. We don't know, and the author doesn't pretend that they do. Don't forget that drones have been used in this war for years, and the vast majority of the drone industry has already pivoted to the military because it's easier to make money there. So it's…

> I see a lot of comments saying that "but the technology will improve". When people say "the technology will improve", I think they're usually referring to the drones currently in use becoming much better not due to breakthroughs in technology, but by applying existing technology more effectively for military purposes. Current military drones used in Ukraine are inefficient conversions of civilian products that were…

> Current military drones used in Ukraine are inefficient conversions of civilian products

Are you sure about that? Many drone companies have been engineering for the military for years before the Ukraine invasion in 2022.

The thing is, those FPV drones are super, super, super cheap. We do have better technology, it does exist. But it is more expensive. Is it worth it then? That's the question.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#275

Post by ponector »

inglor_cz wrote: post #151
speeder wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw some fascinating videos explaining that the terrain caused the war in first place. The huge border between Russia and Ukraine is completely flat grassland. This means that to Russia, Ukraine joining NATO is an unacceptable risk because that border is impossible to defend against NATO tank invasion, and the flatness go all the way to Moscow. A lot of people on internet keep poking fun at Russia inadequate tanks…

I would say that the events of Russo-Ukrainian war have shown that even a lot of tanks (and NATO does not have anywhere near as many as Russia did, the former Soviet stockpile was absolutely massive) aren't the crushing force that they used to be in Manstein's and Guderian's time. Of course Putin is a bit old and may think in old patterns... On the other hand, I believe Russia made itself very vulnerable by letting i…

> tanks aren't the crushing force that they used to be in Manstein's and Guderian's time

Russians have assault groups of couple tanks and half a dozen ifv. Had Guderian used same forces in a single battle? The biggest Russian operations had 40-60 armored vehicles, mainly ifv.

Tanks are still a real power, especially western modern tanks.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#276

Post by esseph »

ponector wrote: post #271
tguvot wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there are now laser/gps guided mortars. probably still more expensive than drone but easier to deploy

GPS guided munitions like Excalibur are useless against peer adversary. Costs as much as 100 regular rounds and as 200+ FPV drones but has zero accuracy thanks to EW and jamming.

... Not quite.

Local airborne EW platforms can relay GPS signal.

Combined with Inertial Navigation System reduces the CEP.

Laser terminal guidance gets it on point.

The US has a lot of work to do in EW - it also has done a lot of work to prepare for some of these scenarios.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#277

Post by ponector »

thatguy0900 wrote: post #195
fennecbutt wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Switchblade 2 is $80k usd per unit. And the only reason for that is that as per usual private companies are making a killing. You and I could build a similarly functioning device in 6 months with a small team. They're not that smart/advanced, imo. I think most of the money for these things isn't paid for research/engineering but goes into MBA/investor pockets.

I was under the impression that while there is a lot of grift, a lot of that was supply chain cost as well. You or I could build one but it would all be sourced in China without vetted supply chain parts or firmware. These Ukraine drones are all off the shelf parts and running who knows what firmware everywhere.

China is partially blocking export of drone parts. More so for Ukraine, so their drones have 50%+ of domestic parts. Custom firmware, even with auto aim for the last 10m where jamming can hit the signal.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#278

Post by fennecbutt »

thatguy0900 wrote: post #195
fennecbutt wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Switchblade 2 is $80k usd per unit. And the only reason for that is that as per usual private companies are making a killing. You and I could build a similarly functioning device in 6 months with a small team. They're not that smart/advanced, imo. I think most of the money for these things isn't paid for research/engineering but goes into MBA/investor pockets.

I was under the impression that while there is a lot of grift, a lot of that was supply chain cost as well. You or I could build one but it would all be sourced in China without vetted supply chain parts or firmware. These Ukraine drones are all off the shelf parts and running who knows what firmware everywhere.

I suppose that's true but not necessarily. Most of the control hardware would likely come from Taiwan. Structural components can be machined locally, brushless motors or whatever other mechanism can also be machined locally. Sensors etc are available from Japan/Taiwan as well. But tbf I think it would be possible to source reliable Chinese components from reputable companies as well - try do b2b already and they wouldn't get the sales if the product didn't work. Make purchases through a variety of disposable paper companies and the factories would have no idea that it's for defense.

Software for loitering etc would be so easy nowadays too. Hell I can tell a pi zero to track GPS + multiple cameras + loiter/engage target on whatever signatures are available from available sensors.

I say this while eyeing up the Carvera. I want to justify it so badly. Perhaps the Air...not for aforementioned purposes of course, unless some defense contractor wants to pay me ahaha.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#279

Post by ponector »

ben_w wrote: post #263
fennecbutt wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would. But I would be hesitant to if I got wind that it was being sold to a bad government, or that my government was a bad government/intended then for misuse. As a quiet gay nerd I'd love for there to be no war, no bullies. But unfortunately we live in a world where our species evolved from monkeys and we still often act like it. If my usually peaceful tribe needs weapons to defend itself when attacked then I'm a…

It's very easy to mistake one's own government for the good guys. 20 or so years ago, my degree's optionally-mandatory* industrial placement year had me interviewing at Lockheed Martin. I didn't get it, and in retrospect, given what is now coming to light about UK misbehaviour in Iraq**, I'm glad I didn't. Unfortunately, I don't know what to do about this, as you're correct about the world we live in. * tax thing **…

It's easy to identify who is a evil country and who is a victim in Russo-Ukrainian war.

Who is bombing civilians? Shelling cities with inaccurate old missiles? Which cities are destroyed to the ground?

Russian state is pure evil, even worse than Iran.

Re: I fought in Ukraine and here's why FPV drones kind of suck

#280

Post by palata »

mopsi wrote: post #232
speeder wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whenever I see this reasoning, I wonder how many people really believe not a single NATO country will ever elect a nutjob that might just decide to invade someone for a bullshit reason. For example, hypothetically, what is the chance for a major NATO country will never have a president that might decide to bomb another country out of the blue, because that country according to said president, has weapons of mass dest…

I recommend looking up European military readiness levels before diving too deep into fantasies. Who is supposed to invade Russia? Latvia, with its tank army of exactly zero tanks? Or a major country like Germany, with its barely 100 operational tanks and enough artillery ammunition for just two days? Even in Russia, only complete loonies treats this as a plausible scenario. That's why you can see bunkers and anti-ta…

> before diving too deep into fantasies

You do realise that the parent was actually making a historical reference? "Weapons of mass destruction"... doesn't that ring a bell?

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