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"AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

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Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#271

Post by ednite »

djhn wrote: post #261
ednite wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Great example, and to be honest, I’m guilty of the same. I used ChatGPT to come up with a logo for one of my projects, and it only took about five minutes. The kicker? The designer I would’ve usually handed it to actually approved it and liked it. It kind of stings, though. That used to be someone’s craft, their livelihood. But like you said, the key now is finding ways to adapt, maybe by leaning more into the human…

How can it come up with a logo? Is it able to output vector graphics now? Chatgpt and Genini choked on trying to generate even the simplest of 2d shapes, like a 5-pointed star, as svg.

At this early stage of our project, a PNG was sufficient. Later on, I can have a designer convert it to a vector format, or our printing service provider can handle that for us. I assume it won’t be long before AI can generate a perfect vector format directly.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#272

Post by mjr00 »

rvz wrote: post #264
mjr00 wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Why would I hire 100s of employees when I can cut the most junior and mid-level roles and make the seniors more productive with AI? Because at competent companies juniors and mid-level employees aren't just cranking out code, they're developing an understanding of the domain and system. If all you cared about was cranking out code and features, you'd have outsourced to Infosys etc long ago. (Admittedly, many compan…

> Because at competent companies juniors and mid-level employees aren't just cranking out code, they're developing an understanding of the domain and system. So many companies like Microsoft, Meta, Salesforce and Google (who are actively using AI just did layoffs) are some how not 'competent companies' because they believe with AI they can do more with less engineers and employees? > This doesn't make any sense. I as…

> So many companies like Microsoft, Meta, Salesforce and Google (who are actively using AI just did layoffs) are some how not 'competent companies' because they believe with AI they can do more with less engineers and employees?

Is there any evidence the layoffs are actually due to AI, or due to a hiring correction using AI as an excuse?

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#273

Post by AstroBen »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #265
AstroBen wrote: post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unrealistic to say that AI will never take over our jobs That's not my position. I'm agnostic. I have no idea where it'll end up but there's no reason to have a strong belief either way The comment you originally replied to is I think the sanest thing in here. You can't just project out endlessly unless you have a technological basis for it. The current methodologies are getting into diminishing returns and we'll n…

Then we're in agreement. It's clearly not a religous debate, you're just mischaracterizing it that way. The original comment I replied to is categorically wrong. It's not sane at all when it's rationally and factually not true. We are not projecting endlessly. We are hitting a 1 year mark of a bumpy upward trendline that's been going for over 15 years. This 1 year mark is characterized by a bump of a slight diminishi…

Agnostic, at least as I was using it, was intending to mean 'who knows'. That's very different from a 50% possibility

"You are a human brain, we know that an intelligence up to human intelligence can be physically realized" - not evidence that LLMs will lead to AGI

"trendline that's been going for over 15 years" - not evidence LLMs will continue to AGI, even more so now given we're running into the limits of scaling it

AI winter is a common term for a reason. We make huge progress in a short amount of time, everyone goes crazy with hype, then it dies down for years or decades

The only evidence that justifies a specific probability is going to be technical explanations of how LLMs are going to scale to AGI. No one has that

1. LLMs are good at specific, well defined tasks with clear outcomes. The thing that got them there is hitting its limit

2. ???

3. AGI

What's the 2?

It matters.. because everyone's hyped up and saying we're all going to be replaced but they can't fill in the 2. It's a religious debate because it's blind faith without evidence

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#274

Post by bee_rider »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #109
bee_rider wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m actually not clear on what percentage of the doctor’s work-time is spend doing things other than talking to patients (like arguing with insurance or making records).

The solution to doctors arguing with insurance isn't "have an AI do it" it's universal health care so doctors don't need to worry about insurance in the slightest I worked on software for electronic medical record note taking and I'm not sure how an LLM can help a doctor speed that up tbh. All of the stats need to be typed into the computer regardless. The LLM can't really speed that up?

I’d also prefer single payer, but nothing except ourselves has been stopping us from doing that, and we haven’t changed much. Maybe it’ll happen. But I don’t see any recent tech changes making it so.

Unless somebody manages to make hyper-convincing LLMs and use them for good, I guess. (Note: I think this is a bad path).

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#275

Post by kalleboo »

diggan wrote: post #149
ednite wrote: post #108

Not an expert here, just speaking from experience as a working dev. I don’t think AI is going to replace my job as a software developers anytime soon, but it’s definitely changing how we work (and in many cases, already has). Personally, I use AI a lot. It’s great for boilerplate, getting unstuck, or even offering alternative solutions I wouldn’t have thought of. But where it still struggles sometimes is with the why…

> Even if I prompt with security as the top priority LLMs do really poorly with general statements like that, so not sure it's unexpected. If you put "Make sure to make it production worthy", you'll get as many different answers as there are programmers, because not even us human programmers agree what that really means. Same for "Make sure security is the top priority", most programmers would understand that differe…

Although the promise of the latest generation of "thinking" models is that they're supposed to do that themselves - in the internal chat thread in their "thought" process they're supposed to go "what does secure mean for a web app", list those items (which it can already easily do if you prompt it separately) and then go through that list

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#276

Post by Jensson »

reverendsteveii wrote: post #227
ednite wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a perfect example of how AI can be a powerful partner in development when you already know what you’re trying to solve. Feels like the real sweet spot right now is: humans define the goal and validate the work, AI just helps fill in the middle.

if they make an AI that lets you format code readably on HackerNews we are all sauteed

You can use 2 spaces before and you get a block. AI should be able to do it for you if you ask it to since its good at transforming between formats.

  public void getEntityWithParents(List entityList, String id) {
      DBEntity entity = dao.getById(id);
      entityList.add(entity);
      if (entity.getParent() != null) {
          getEntityWithParents(entityList, entity.getId());
      }
  }

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#277

Post by darkoob12 »

I was wondering if these claims are supported by numbers. Are we seeing a decrease in employment?

I checked the unemployment numbers of US they have a regular trend. But they are very vague and general.

I cannot attribute layoffs at companies like Microsoft to AI because these things happened before many times.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#279

Post by ninetyninenine »

AstroBen wrote: post #273
ninetyninenine wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then we're in agreement. It's clearly not a religous debate, you're just mischaracterizing it that way. The original comment I replied to is categorically wrong. It's not sane at all when it's rationally and factually not true. We are not projecting endlessly. We are hitting a 1 year mark of a bumpy upward trendline that's been going for over 15 years. This 1 year mark is characterized by a bump of a slight diminishi…

Agnostic, at least as I was using it, was intending to mean 'who knows'. That's very different from a 50% possibility "You are a human brain, we know that an intelligence up to human intelligence can be physically realized" - not evidence that LLMs will lead to AGI "trendline that's been going for over 15 years" - not evidence LLMs will continue to AGI, even more so now given we're running into the limits of scaling…

>Agnostic, at least as I was using it, was intending to mean 'who knows'. That's very different from a 50% possibility

I take "don't know" to mean the outcome is 50/50 either way because that's the default probability of "don't know"

> not evidence LLMs will continue to AGI, even more so now given we're running into the limits of scaling it

Never said it was. The human brain is evidence of what can be physically realized and that is compelling evidence that it can be built by us. It's not definitive evidence but it's compelling evidence. Fusion is less compelling because we don't have any evidence of it existing on earth.

>AI winter is a common term for a reason. We make huge progress in a short amount of time, everyone goes crazy with hype, then it dies down for years or decades

>AI winter is a common term for a reason. We make huge progress in a short amount of time, everyone goes crazy with hype, then it dies down for years or decades

AI winter refers to a singular event that happened through the entire history of AI. It is not a term applicable to a common occurrence as you seem to imply. We had one winter, and that is not enough to establish a pattern that it is going to repeat.

>1. LLMs are good at specific, well defined tasks with clear outcomes. The thing that got them there is hitting its limit

What's the thing that got them there? Training data?

>It matters.. because everyone's hyped up and saying we're all going to be replaced but they can't fill in the 2. It's a religious debate because it's blind faith without evidence

The hype is in the other direction. On HN everyone is overwhelmingly against AI and making claims that it will never happen. Also artists are already replaced. I worked at a company where artists did in fact get replaced by AI.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#280

Post by ookblah »

bluefirebrand wrote: post #258
ookblah wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

alright, we can agree to disagree because this so obviously touching a chord with you and you're now literally making sweeping assumptions based on things i've never said. maybe i like taking care of my friends kids, volunteering, or doing other things that contribute to the "future of society"? personally, i think mentoring junior devs is slightly lower on the priority list, but that's my opinion. seriously, how arr…

> maybe i like taking care of my friends kids, volunteering, or doing other things that contribute to the "future of society That's great, that doesn't absolve you of your responsibility to also mentor juniors at work though Those are different tasks in different worlds and they all need doing

nice deflection. i might not share your enthusiasm for mentoring junior devs, but i do it anyway because like you, i agree it's important. the point, though, is at the end of the day even if i didn't do it you have no fucking right to come with that moral high ground.

if you've optimized every facet of your life to do all the "responsible things" society needs then feel free to throw the first stone. anything else is just posturing.

and just a small thing, it's ironic that you're so fixated on socialization for society’s sake while being so tunnel-visioned in defending your own definition of what that even means. i've given you plenty examples but it just doesn't fit the one you personally adhere to.

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