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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#271

Post by kalkin »

mathfailure wrote: post #252
kalkin wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But... they can? If Ukraine can fight Russia to a standstill, a fully mobilized Europe clearly at least has a shot. Unless it escalates to nuclear weapons and everyone loses... But you need at least an argument if you want to say that is less likely without any initial US involvement, it's not obvious.

Exactly. Europe thinks it may join Ukraine in a war against Russia to actually win that war. My point is that this is quite a reason why a nuke war may occur. And if U.S. turns back away from Europe - Europe might 'sober up' and not seek the prolongation of a conflict. Non-nuke wars end somehow. One side usually loses, without such a loss - there would be no end for the war and more and more people would die. A bitte…

There's nothing in my comment to "exactly" in support of your point. If the US backs away from Europe it may be more likely to encourage Ukrainian surrender. Russia may be more likely to attack Poland. Germany may be more likely to develop its own nuclear deterrent. Or none of these things may happen. Extrapolating from tariffs to world peace demands a bit more than loose speculation at the continental level.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#272

Post by anigbrowl »

ceejayoz wrote: post #241
Terr_ wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't require a constitutional amendment, we can just repeal the law [0] being used, which would ironically involve the same number of votes as keeping the law but slapping down Trump's particular usage of it. (That's now how it originally worked, but the easy-slapdown route got ruled unconstitutional.) Military alliance stuff might be harder. Some stuff like NATO is supported by actual legislation, but other st…

> we can just repeal the law [0] being used Only with a veto-proof majority in both chambers.

Maybe, but vetoes are politically very expensive. Even if he threatens to veto, Congress should still do it. Not doing obvious things because they might run into opposition/problems is a recipe for more and worse of the same.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#273

Post by walterbell »

graeme wrote: post #239
walterbell wrote: post #205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.retailcouncil.org/u-s-hits-185-nations-with-tari... > No new tariffs were announced for Canada. Canada and Mexico’s exemption for USMCA/CUSMA qualifying goods was maintained. However, 25% tariffs on non-USMCA compliant Canadian goods, Canadian steel and aluminum, Canadian autos and parts, and the 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports remain in place.. there are signs that negotiators on both sides are try…

So the tariffs were calculated based on dividing goods trade deficit by overall goods trade. If you run that formula for Canada and Mexico, the number would be LOWER than the tariffs already imposed. So they had to leave Canada and Mexico off to keep things looking consistent. You can confirm here from USTR stats: https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada#:~:text=C...

https://www.ft.com/content/96bc1b74-14dd-47ab-8bbd-1add97a2a...

> both leaders claim their approaches have helped them this week avoid what Trump calls “liberation day” tariffs.. Mexican officials on Thursday said the strategy had borne fruit and they would focus on getting an even better deal. Economy minister Marcelo Ebrard said: “It's a great achievement, I’d say, from the point of view of where we started not long ago that there would be no exemptions.” .. Mexico remains upbeat, with [President] Sheinbaum on Thursday trying to lure companies to invest in USMCA-compliant production in the country. “We think that with the dialogue we’ve established there are the conditions to have a better deal,” she said.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#274

Post by yongjik »

VirusNewbie wrote: post #126
lenerdenator wrote: post #4

I was looking at used cars on Carmax about two or three weeks ago. I looked again today. They're another $1-2k. This is the shareholder/political class trying to eat their cake and have it too. Pay people a stagnant wage for 40 years while taking most of the surplus value and dedicating it to equities, then pretend to do something about it, but in a way that passes the buck to the people who have been making a stagna…

Are you claiming that the 'shareholder class' would rather depress the economy and wipe out trillions in shareholder value...over inflating the economy and lowering interest rates?

Agree. This sounds like the simplistic "billionaires were the problem all along" take, which is, TBF, not that different from Trumpism. The only difference is the choice of enemies who are responsible for all our problems.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#275

Post by [deleted] »

lreeves wrote: post #10

You know the craziest thing about watching this as an outsider in Canada is that we as a nation are losing one reliable trading partner (and obviously losing an ally but that's another conversation). Germany - losing a trade partner. Japan? And so on. But the US has lost 180 reliable trading partners. You're already seeing in the first week burgeoning trade alliances between nations who wouldn't have cooperated befor…

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#276

Post by mtgentry »

lreeves wrote: post #220
Uvix wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's already there in the Constitution - Article II, Section 2, Clause 2. Unfortunately other countries chose not to require things in writing and were happy with pinky promises that could be reneged.

We (Canada) literally signed the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement for trade in 2020... with Donald Trump. Trump this February said "Who would ever sign a thing like this?" and proceeded to make up the story about fentanyl coming from Canada as a pretense to ignore this deal. So there was certainly more than a pinky promise. Additionally your senate just signed law to repeal the tariffs against Canada specificall…

Yep, he’s doing to other countries what he’s done to contractors, plumbers, and other tradesmen for years.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#278

Post by sebmellen »

onetimeusename wrote: post #260
sebmellen wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right about all you say. But the US has struggled to implement even the simplest forms of industrial policy because other countries are so extremely price-competitive, and our markets so unbridled, that our “elites” have eroded our industrial base to drive shareholder returns. If not through tariffs, how else do you force reindustrialization? Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric poli…

The problem is that the tariffs can be undone by the next president. I think that would discourage any investment in industry here. Even if this works, I feel like there is now a political commitment to undoing the tariffs.

This is a big problem with the strategy.

Of course, if you manage to dismantle checks and balances, manipulate elections, and stay in for a third term, you fix the problem…

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#279

Post by FabHK »

csomar wrote: post #101
ripped_britches wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Financial markets are generally better indicators of overall sentiment than betting sites but point taken

The betting site did predict Trump will win the election.

If the betting site is used as a hedge, then the equilibrium prices don’t reflect real-world probabilities.

Suppose people predicted that Trump would tank the economy and wanted a few extra dollars in that case. An extra dollar in a Trump world would be worth more than in a normal world, thus distorting betting.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#280

Post by zip1234 »

sebmellen wrote: post #249
bgnn wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, abd this appreciates USD, in turn makes production costs in US high, so the rest of the world doesn't buy what US produces. It is by itself sustainable though as US doesn't only export produced goods but tech etc which the world wants. A valuable dollar funds this tech, in a sense whole world funds the US trch sector.

Not only “in a sense,” but also directly — many of the parent or grandparent LPs to US venture firms are foreign wealth funds, and US tech companies are (by way of our capital markets) held as an investment by many foreign nations (e.g. Norway’s sovereign wealth funds). So we enrich foreign nations through our technology companies and capital markets. This is to the detriment of our domestic laborers, but it’s a grea…

I'm not even sure that it is to the detriment of our domestic laborers. It certainly makes domestic manufacturing less competitive, especially the lowest skill/barrier to entry manufacturing. However, the US manufactures a LOT still, there are loads of reasonably well paying jobs for lower skill worker. I will say that housing and healthcare costs are high in the US but those are not things that are imported.
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