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Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

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Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#271

Post by randmeerkat »

only-one1701 wrote: post #252
CSMastermind wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay but what's a better system?

Ideally it's the responsibility of management, starting at the top, to think critically about what kind of software most benefits the company and reward those that do it. Unfortunately, it's much harder to sell "amazing documentation and test coverage" to a CEO than "Gen AI wrapper that doesn't really do much", so here we are.

> Ideally it's the responsibility of management, starting at the top, to think critically about what kind of software most benefits the company and reward those that do it. Unfortunately, it's much harder to sell "amazing documentation and test coverage" to a CEO than "Gen AI wrapper that doesn't really do much", so here we are.

What do you think these technical ladder climbers become..? Technical leadership. The truth is, there’s no one technical in big tech leadership. They pay lip service to “tech” to keep up appearances and to satisfy the pleebs that work under them. The only things leadership cares about is the stock price and profitability, literally nothing else matters. If anything the tech itself is a nuisance that pulls their attention from where they’d rather have it, which is anywhere else.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#272

Post by charlieyu1 »

toasterlovin wrote: post #256
echelon wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no moat in models (OpenAI). There is a moat in infra (hyperscalers, Azure, CoreWeave). There is a moat in compute platform (Nvidia, Cuda). Maybe there's a moat with good execution and product, but it isn't showing yet. We haven't seen real break out successes. (I don't think you can call ChatGPT a product. It has zero switching cost.)

> I don't think you can call ChatGPT a product. It has zero switching cost. In consumer markets the moat is habits. The switching cost for Google Search is zero. The switching cost for Coke is zero. The switching cost for Crest toothpaste is zero. Yet nobody switches.

I’m not that old and I remember people switching away from Geocities, ICQ, Yahoo, many social media sites etc

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#273

Post by herval »

crazygringo wrote: post #261
toasterlovin wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't think you can call ChatGPT a product. It has zero switching cost. In consumer markets the moat is habits. The switching cost for Google Search is zero. The switching cost for Coke is zero. The switching cost for Crest toothpaste is zero. Yet nobody switches.

(Never mind I was wrong -- deleting my comment to not spread misinformation. The definition of moat is wider than I was familiar with, thanks for the correction!)

A strong brand is most definitely a moat. So is habit. Any source you can find that defines economic moats will list those.

https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/management/e...

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#274

Post by marsovo »

whstl wrote: post #187
usefulcat wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure most of the resentment comes from working with such people. Which I think is understandable.

Understandable, but still wrongfully blaming a player rather than the game itself.

I don't think it's wrong to blame people who make life more difficult for others for their own aggrandizement

The game doesn't exist without players. I could make more money if I worked at Meta or Amazon, but at what cost?

I understand the realities of Game Theory, but then one could argue that being blamed and criticized for one's choices is also part of the game. "Mr Wolfcastle, how do you sleep at night?" "On a big pile of money with many beautiful ladies"

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#275

Post by rossdavidh »

"Microsoft has poured over $13 billion into the AI firm since 2019..."

My understanding is that this isn't really true, as most of those "dollars" were actually Azure credits. I'm not saying those are free (for Microsoft), but they're a lot cheaper than the price tag suggests. Companies that give away coupons or free gift certificates do bear a cost, but not a cost equivalent to the number on them, especially if they have spare capacity.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#276

Post by snarfy »

only-one1701 wrote: post #22

Maybe I'm just cynical, but I wonder how much of this initiative and energy is driven by people at Microsoft who want their own star to rise higher than it can when it's bound by a third-party technology. I feel like this is something I've seen a fair amount in my career. About seven years ago, when Google was theoretically making a big push to stage Angular on par with React, I remember complaining that the document…

I like to refer to this as resume driven development.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#277

Post by mk_chan »

DebtDeflation wrote: post #31

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

I’ll believe their proficiency claims when they replace all their software developers, knowledge workers and PhDs with this stuff.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#278

Post by catigula »

mk_chan wrote: post #277
DebtDeflation wrote: post #31

A couple of days ago it leaked that OpenAI was planning on launching new pricing for their AI Agents. $20K/mo for their PhD Level Agent, $10K/mo for their Software Developer Agent, and $2K/mo for their Knowledge Worker Agent. I found it very telling. Not because I think anyone is going to pay this, but rather because this is the type of pricing they need to actually make money. At $20 or even $200 per month, they'll…

I’ll believe their proficiency claims when they replace all their software developers, knowledge workers and PhDs with this stuff.

That is fundamentally the problem with this type of offering.

You can't claim it's even comparable to a mid level engineer because then you'd hardly need any engineers at all.

Re: Microsoft is plotting a future without OpenAI

#279

Post by vitorsr »

madmask wrote: post #173
moelf wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$20k can't get you that many PhD. Even PhD students, who's nominal salary is maybe $3-5k a month, effectively costs double that because of school overhead and other stuff.

Come to Italy where 1.1k is enough

Or Brazil where the DSc student stipend is 3100 BRL (roughly 500 EUR).
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