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TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

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Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#271

Post by yo_yo_yo-yo »

starspangled wrote: post #262
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

TSMC factories on Taiwan are small fry in the scheme of things and won't really move the needle much, in terms of strategy. Samsung and Intel are pretty comparable in manufacturing capability, within a couple of years really. And most chips you find in cars and ships and missiles and satellites and jets aren't leading-edge either. China is terrified of their access to the sea being blockaded. They'd gladly give up TS…

You significantly underestimate the importance of compute superiority for data synthesis for command & control.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#272

Post by simondotau »

koolba wrote: post #188
aurareturn wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure TSMC has a lot of influence over the Taiwanese government. However, the people of Taiwan aren't stupid in all of this. They know this is a horrible deal for them and would make sure their politicians hear about it.

They must have a massive influence. I think its gross revenue is something like 10% of the GDP of the whole country.

Even that understates things. TSMC is Taiwan’s singular Trump card in geopolitical negotiations. Now that righteousness and moral high grounds don’t matter any more, it’s the only thing keeping Taiwan safe.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#273

Post by ttul »

suraci wrote: post #143
Clubber wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you willing to get drafted and fight to defend Taiwan and whatever comes as a result of that? Are you willing to die for Taiwan, or have your kids die for Taiwan? Honest question.

I guess the same question was raised before the Korean War and the Vietnam War and it was also get downvoted I have to say, americans love wars, it's some kind of american spirit wars made american great, wars will make american great again

Someone seems to have crept your profile, @suraci, and it's not looking good: https://limewire.com/d/77690b9f-1ec3-4e43-a485-76c82bc67ddd#...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#274

Post by jopsen »

nomilk wrote: post #242
jopsen wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is it a given that the US would come to Tawian's defence now In practice, probably yes, officially probably maybe. Giving a security guarantee would allow Taiwan to do provocative things, so hence, why there isn't a formal one. If it actually came to be today, I guess the US would at-least offer token support. To (a) embargo China, (b) ensure chip facilities Taiwan aren't surrendered intact. Both of which doesn't r…

This is both very accurate and very depressing. 'Security guarantee' conjures thoughts of defending a population and its cities from destruction, whereas what it actually means is the opposite: to ensure all items of value are fully destroyed before they're taken.

Maybe, it's also a good deterrent.

And without it, Taiwan would probably press harder for nukes.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#275

Post by alienthrowaway »

jopsen wrote: post #248
tayo42 wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I might have believed that a couple weeks ago. Mexico and Canada put a show on for the him about the tarrifs and they're still set to be in place tommrow. Why would anyone else play along now?

No to mention that NAFTA was renegotiated under Trumps first term. Still it might be cheaper to just give him worthless wins with no follow thru.

News headlines in 6 months "Trump announces trillion dollar free-trade deal with Russia" that will be "totally fair" and not "taking advantage of the US" like Canada, Mexico and the EU.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#276

Post by adastra22 »

yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #170
ethbr1 wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.

Now that I’ve calmed down a bit, I agree with your assessment. The optics game is so important, but Taiwan is in an impossible situation. If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they limit advanced process silicon to other countries and let Huawei and others monopolize the advanced nodes. The US at present does not appear to be a dependable partner.

> If I were China, I would give them relative economic independence if they...

What authority do you think China has over Taiwan?

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#277

Post by starspangled »

yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #271
starspangled wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC factories on Taiwan are small fry in the scheme of things and won't really move the needle much, in terms of strategy. Samsung and Intel are pretty comparable in manufacturing capability, within a couple of years really. And most chips you find in cars and ships and missiles and satellites and jets aren't leading-edge either. China is terrified of their access to the sea being blockaded. They'd gladly give up TS…

You significantly underestimate the importance of compute superiority for data synthesis for command & control.

No I don't, and anyway US-aligned semiconductor design and fabrication is still superior to Chinese if TSMC did not exist.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#278

Post by safety1st »

dragonwriter wrote: post #221
safety1st wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now is a very interesting moment in that the future is crystal clear and yet so many people of all persuasions don't want to accept it for so many different reasons * The USA is going to claw back whatever economic largesse it has granted to the rest of the world, and ultimately renege on many of its security guarantees, with the underlying reason being that it can no longer afford to be world police and pay fo…

> Right now is a very interesting moment in that the future is crystal clear and yet so many people of all persuasions don't want to accept it for so many different reasons Anyone who thinks the future is crystal clear is an extremely arrogant, and the narrative you present is inconsistent in ways which show an extremely poor understanding of the way international economics works. > The USA is going to claw back what…

Might have been worth reading if you hadn't kicked it off with an ad hominem. Bye!

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#279

Post by fatbird »

ein0p wrote: post #208
pj_mukh wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Curious why Taiwan would sign onto this, knowing how Ukraine is being treated vis a vis mineral rights. I realize Taiwan doesn't have any other options, but a "verbal offer" of future security guarantees from the Trump Admin aren't worth anything.

I don't think there are any multi-trillion dollar deposits of any "minerals" there. If there were, Ukraine wouldn't be so poor. Even pre-war it was the poorest country in Europe per capita. One can argue that it was mostly due to their insane levels of corruption, but then again, if there were any multi-trillion dollar deposits of anything there, Western investors (including Hunter Biden, no doubt) would be all over…

Zelensky predictably plays the tough guy by telling him to pound sand.

Zelensky flew to Washington to sign the agreement, and fully expected to--they waited an hour after the blown up press conference before being told to get out. Diplomatically, Zelensky wasn't even badly behaved in the press conference. Vance and Trump kept escalating the discussion. If there was a play, it was one constructed by Trump to give himself a reason to withdraw aid from Ukraine when he clearly wants to side with Putin.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#280

Post by somenameforme »

jopsen wrote: post #240
dataflow wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? The US population does not seem ecstatic to enter something that could turn into WWIII, which makes me feel that even a president in favor of this would quickly fail to do anything.

> What I don't get is, in what universe is any US president going to engage militarily against China across the ocean, let alone the current one? A managed escalation would blockade China, or at least ensure the rest of the free world never trades with China again. Similarly, a local conflict could ensure chip facilities in Taiwan aren't surrendered intact. The US doesn't have to win a hot conflict. Just start a cold…

I don't think this is quite how it would work. Taiwan isn't even remotely close to self sufficient on many critical things including food and energy. This means they are extremely vulnerable to a naval blockade, with no realistic means of combating it. And breaking such a blockade would probably be impossible. It's not just that they're a tiny little island right off the coast of China, but the geography of the island itself makes a blockade even more unstoppable. Most of the island is made up of inhospitable mountains, with a sliver of hospitable land mostly on one side, the side that faces China. This [1] is a population density map of Taiwan. China is as little as 80 miles to their West.

And by "free world" I guess you mean the anglosphere, gradually shrinking globalist parts of the EU, and perhaps Japan/South Korea. That's now less than 15% of the global population and declining. Economically BRICS overcame the G7 back in 2018 [2], and the difference has only grown far more stark since. The times have really changed a lot over the past ~20 years. I think the collapse of the USSR was probably the worst thing to ever happen to the US, because it gave us a taste of global hegemony that was never sustainable, yet left us addicted to its fleeting flavor.

[1] - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Population_density_of_T...

[2] - https://www.statista.com/statistics/1412425/gdp-ppp-share-wo...

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