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I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

hindenburgresearch.com

271–280 of 430 posts

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#271

"just feeling like it" seems insufficient explanation for dismantling a successful organization rather than transitioning it they just completed their "pipeline of ideas" with "the last Ponzi cases" - seems like a surprisingly clean and abrupt end for an investigative organization the team members are "brilliant" and "family to me" but heis disbanding rather than transitioning leadership He mentions some team members…

Being cautious is good. It IS possible, that this person is doing it out of passion, rather than a typical idea of a job or firm. TLDR: Within the realm of possibility, relatively unusual.

” relatively unusual.”

Hindenburg was anything but usual IMO so fits the picture.

There is a type of person who needs to re-invent themselves over and over.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#273
post #241

I have lost literally hundreds of thousands of $ trying to short obvious frauds and scams. I have made all that back and more by instead going long things that are cheap + growing. Being a bear pays off 1% of the time, and the act of trying to time it actually changes the window so just be an optimist and get rich.

Very true. If you have the fundamentals right, but the timing wrong, you're still "wrong", because you're broke.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#274
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few years ago cost structures for managing one's investment portfolios were also significantly higher than today! There's an even better alternative for someone willing to put in the leg work: (1) Figure out your investment horizon. For many people, this is way shorter than suggested by generic advice, which makes some diversification beyond "stonks go up" meaningful. (2) Figure out what costs you'll incur by rebal…

Agree with you 100%, I did the same simulations and found the same result. I would suggest a step beyond though, because rebalancing your portfolio is fun year 1-5, but not so fun year 5-20: have a look at e.g. Vanguard retirement target funds. Essentially, it's an ETF with a rebalancing rule included for a specific target date. For instance if you buy the target 2050 (your hypothetical retirement age), the ETF rebal…

There are scenarios where these target date funds are not good.

Rebalancing into bonds and mmmfs is a form of insurance against catastrophic losses equities. But if you have a sufficiently large account then catastrophic losses that affect your life are extremely rare, if they do occur they will likely affect your bond portfolio as well, and the expected loss vs 100% equities over 15-20 years is significant, something like 10x the value of the insurance you are buying.

If you want insurance for a large account then long-dated put options 20% of the money are much cheaper.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trading fees are at or near zero in the US now unless you mean capital gains.

Not what I meant, but capital gains are another issue, but I am not in the US. In the UK we pay a 0.5% tax on ever transaction and often around £10 per transaction, so its quite substantial. I should probably have said costs, not fees. How much are total costs in the US? If you trade frequently even low costs add up. If its 0.1% and you trade monthly it ends up being 1.2% over the course of an year.

All the major US brokers started doing free trades for stocks and etfs. For Vanguard, most of the index expense ratios are really low, like %.05 percent, but that’s not a trading fee.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#276
post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A few years ago cost structures for managing one's investment portfolios were also significantly higher than today! There's an even better alternative for someone willing to put in the leg work: (1) Figure out your investment horizon. For many people, this is way shorter than suggested by generic advice, which makes some diversification beyond "stonks go up" meaningful. (2) Figure out what costs you'll incur by rebal…

Agree with you 100%, I did the same simulations and found the same result. I would suggest a step beyond though, because rebalancing your portfolio is fun year 1-5, but not so fun year 5-20: have a look at e.g. Vanguard retirement target funds. Essentially, it's an ETF with a rebalancing rule included for a specific target date. For instance if you buy the target 2050 (your hypothetical retirement age), the ETF rebal…

My target date 2050 funds have performed 50% less than my S&P 500 and like 30/40% less than my total stock market fund.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#277
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments Money Magazine a few years ago compared various investment strategies in stocks. The #2 best performing one was investing in the S&P 500. The #1 best performing strategy was the "dead man strategy". The dead man strategy comes into play when the investor dies, and his estate gets frozen until it winds its way through the courts.…

Did they include the Monkeys?

"Most successful chimpanzee on Wall Street" - https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/most-succ...

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#278

They published about Carvana 13 days ago and now are disbanding... https://hindenburgresearch.com/carvana/

Carvana stock didn’t seem to react much at all to that Jan 2 report (higher today than on Jan 1, even)? I wonder if, and possibly how much, Hindenburg lost on that trade.

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#279
post #151
post #30

Getting out while they are ahead is a smart move, especially considering multiple governments have started to take a closer look at their shorting tactics.

I wouldn't say they were ahead at least in terms of reputation. They targeted India's Adani group and failed. The Supermicro "revelation" was also a damp squib. I suppose they made plenty of money with their short-selling though, so in that sense they are, perhaps, ahead enough.

Only failed Adani because they misunderstood how deep the Indian government would go to join in the cover-up, instead of actually investigating it.

The Big 4 auditor for Supermicro literally quit, citing concerns. It's the SEC's job to do the investigating (and it's failed badly and likely to fail more with the coming admin).

Re: I have made the decision to disband Hindenburg Research

#280
post #59

I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments because I was naively confident in the market's ability (or as I've come to suspect, willingness) to react to evidence of fraud. The amount of deceit put out into the world and gobbled up, on purpose, in business is obscene and seriously depressing. The magnitude of damage to psyches and thus economies that anyone acting in a fraud…

> I've ironically lost more money the more closely I've paid attention to my investments

Without insider knowlege market investments are pure gamble. The best you can do is to bet randomly. Once you deviate from random bets because you are mistakenly think you know something then your investments will underperform.

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