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Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

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Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#271

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Your entire personality and idea of you is also a ponzy scheme. Does that make your life any less real ? Here you are pretending to be a somebody commenting so seriously on why Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme. Also go and short Bitcoin if you believe it is a ponzi scheme.

Even though your reply contradicts itself, you've given me much to think about today.

I would love to know what you come up with after the thinking :)

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#272
post #215
post #148

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When Bitcoin was conceived economists said it would have built-in deflation and it seems they were right

No economist said that. Deflation refers to the behaviour of the price level. As such it isn't a property that assets can have.

The original intent of bitcoin was to be a currency so that's how it was evaluated. The point of this thread is that despite it's increasing popularity it has never functioned as a currency. Calling it an asset is dubious since it carries no equity nor pays a dividend nor is it tied to the performance of any institution. That's why I say commodity since it trades most akin to gold although gold (like most commodities) can actually be physically used for things.

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#273
post #264

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I don't know what to tell you, except that you're simply wrong about how pricing works. I don't know where you got this idea that pricing history gives you all the information you need to invest, but it's not what a single professional investor, economist, or financial executive would tell you. Not one. If you want to learn how pricing works, you might want to start here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asset_pricing h…

As I said, this does not apply to monetary assets, which don't have returns or expected future returns, like gold or bitcoin. In addition, these assets do not change. There are no news. All we know is how the price has behaved in different market conditions, and investors try to create models based on that alone. I didn't say that the future price could be predicted or that it is guaranteed. I just said that the hist…

> There are no news... I just said that the historical price information should contain all the relevant information about the asset.

No, the news is changes in supply and demand, and the factors behind those changes, and how we expect those to change in the future. Those determine the current and future prices.

And those are not contained in historical price data. Historical price data is irrelevant to those.

Good luck with your investing.

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#274
post #102

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Eh the USA hasn't defaulted on its debt. Yet. Once it does BTC will stop shadowing the USD.

The companies in the Nasdaq don't care much about the US defaulting: The cash (and cash equivalents in treasuries, etc.) don't make up a large part of their market valuation. If US defaults USD will tank and equity prices of public companies will soar (just like every other price including oil, gold, groceries, and probably also btc).

If that happens those companies will likely see an asset sell off as owners seek cash to buy basic commodities which will perpetuate a great depression. Sufficiently sized multinationals will relist themselves on different exchanges with other more stable currencies but the general panic will cause a downward spiral for most securities.

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#275
post #78
post #34

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It is neither pyramid nor Ponzi. Bubble or mania probably. In pyramid money comes from recruits directly under, in ponzi central party pays out from new and old investors. Bitcoin is not either anymore than say Tesla or Nvidia...

If one is to believe that there is no other usage for a Bitcoin besides having a digital ticket worth 60k+ USD, then those people selling those tickets would be organizing one of these schemes. In order for it not to be so, you need to believe in there being some other usage to a Bitcoin (indeed, there is more to your Nvidia stock than its counter value in USD).

> indeed, there is more to your Nvidia stock than its counter value in USD

With large percentage ownership, I agree. Namely board positions and votes. Failing that though, honest question, what is the value other than speculation (and the belief that asset will yield a greater return than other assets, or will serve as a hedge, all of which really are speculations with no greater value other than the countert value in USD). Hence, could you expound on what those other values are? (In the common case of someone that owns less than 1M shares)

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#276
post #210

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How do you find a professional you can actually trust? Any search results in hundreds of scams.

Your due diligence should be the same as for a financial advisor handling your USD. Bitcoin is big enough now that they'll have a playbook for it. Don't hire a "crypto" professional.

I have neither a financial advisor nor USD...

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#277
post #256

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The biggest use case for Bitcoin is as a wealth store for third world countries that don’t have stable banking institutions.

In case you intentionally left out the /s at the end of your comment... You'd be surprised how advanced the banking systems are in some 3rd world countries. In many cases the banks skipped over a lot of the legacy cruft that 1st world countries are struggling to get rid of now. Also, in countries where the banking system or currency is falling apart, they use USD cash. Zimbabwe is doing this, Argentina is doing this,…

the certainty of this post is its undoing. Someone once relayed this story .. while speaking between two intelligent but not expert adults, about the "size of the Internet" .. one said .. the Internet is so big, that there are whole social groups online, for example a popular multi-player game in Korea, that you have never heard of.. yet there are hundreds of thousands of active participants in this thing that you have never heard of.. that is how big the Internet is..

So wrt. this Bitcoin.. one armchair Admiral is going to pronounce that "electronic cryptographic money exchange Only Does This (list of things that are obnoxious).

It is parochial.. the definition of uninformed.. people who are directly involved don't know all the things that are being done with Bitcoin.. dismiss simplistic portrayals

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#278
post #50

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(I use bitcoin and crypto pretty interchangeably) > Bitcoin is a truly decentralized, voluntarist system Doesn’t 1 pool account for more than 50% of the bitcoin netwoek? It’s theoretically decentralized, but in truth, you can only meaningfully contribute to the network (and have a real chance of mining a block) if you are already wealthy enough to buy the hardware. The issue, imo, with your stance is that it’s all ro…

Thank you for offering your criticisms respectfully and in good faith. >Doesn’t 1 pool account for more than 50% of the bitcoin network? No. Another thing I love about Bitcoin is that it's totally open source, and the open source ethos carries through the whole ecosystem. Because all transactions conducted onchain are relatively transparent compared to say, SWIFT exchanges, there are a lot of resources online to veri…

> At the time of writing, the largest pool (Digital Foundry) currently has less than 1/3 of the total network hashrate. See for yourself here. https://miningpoolstats.stream/bitcoin

So 2 pools control >50% of the network.

Sorry, but when two entities can collude, push some malicious code, and cause widespread network issues that may result in a fork, you’re not really decentralized.

> When I said that "Bitcoin makes it fundamentally and systemically difficult to exercise force against the network to shove in changes that the actual users of Bitcoin do not want", I didn't mean to suggest that makes it impossible, just fundamentally and systemically difficult

Practically, this doesn’t matter. Who cares if you can’t double spend bitcoin, when your country bans the sale of bitcoin. (Assuming you don’t want to intentionally break laws)

Unfortunately, the real world trumps the crypto world.

> If you think I'm the metaphorical "fool being parted from his money", I'd invite you to take the other side of the trade and profit from my willingness to buy what I see value in. That's how markets set prices, that's how we're supposed to do this.

I’m sorry, but just because you’re a fool, so to speak, does not mean that there’s value in bitcoin. Just value in separating fools from their money (which I hear happens quite easily)

Market prices shouldn’t be set solely on the speculation of retail investors…

> Monero is a very different idea than Bitcoin

Not with regards to my argument. Implementation details don’t really matter.

> but controlled by the very wealthy, and is also used to coerce and internationally bully, in ways that Bitcoin does not allow.

I don’t think this is true. Most ways to abuse the dollar and bitcoin are similar. Get someone to believe some falsehood, and profit off of it.

The consensus algo for bitcoin specifically avoids double spending, but other than that, what abuses are you specifically referring to?

What can be abused for fraud in USD that absolutely can not with bitcoin?

> That's not the only utility I find in it

I am genuinely curious as to what utility that is.

> By 'gaming', do you mean like 'gaming the system'

No, sorry. I meant “gambling” but I am typing on my phone, so autocorrect must’ve got me.

I understand the promise of cryptocurrency, but I also understand that, practically, current implementations don’t provide that promise.

I used to see a lot of talk about decentralized internet pre 2020, but that seems to have almost entirely faded away since speculative markets are more viral.

Not only is the technology not solving any problems it set out to solve, but the whole crypto community is infested with scams and those preying on greater fools.

The technology isn’t there and the community (at least the loudest voices) are gross.

That’s why you get such visceral outcry against crypto too, imo.

> I'm familiar with Bitcoin's historical connection with scammers and bad actors

Way to downplay it. I’ve never seen another technology be used solely for scams the way crypto markets have.

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#279
post #111

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What's the scenario where the government can take the digital money from your bank accounts but can't take the digital money from your crypto wallet?

Government cannot take money from a crypto wallet because of cryptography. They could only do it if they compelled you to hand over your secret keys against your will. They also may not even know you have a crypto wallet since it is not registered in your name and is very easy to hide. On the other hand, government can sieze funds from your bank account by seeking a court order or whatever legal instrument is needed…

no, while you are typing, there are senior finance legislators that are reviewing multi-hundred page reports where "the only legal way to trade is with a licensed broker" i.e. you Joe Citizen cannot hold your own keys. If you have not heard of this, welcome to old news in the USA and elsewhere. This is not fringe or conspiracy at all.. this is lawyers in the backroom for the last year(s).

Re: Bitcoin has made a new all-time high price

#280
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government cannot take money from a crypto wallet because of cryptography. They could only do it if they compelled you to hand over your secret keys against your will. They also may not even know you have a crypto wallet since it is not registered in your name and is very easy to hide. On the other hand, government can sieze funds from your bank account by seeking a court order or whatever legal instrument is needed…

Exactly, and that's why in EU a transaction to a self-custody wallet from an exchange you need to declare that wallet as your own. Then when the government want to seize your BTC they can track from that wallet onwards all transactions. The problem with crypto as a hedge against government overreach is with fiat exchanges. I hope more businesses start accepting crypto and you won't need to go trough an exchange that…

You can use cash to buy BTC in bitcoinmat. If you want anonymity while buying it on public place, use mask.
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