OpenAI completes deal that values company at $157B

Post by GiorgioG » Thu, Oct 03, 2024, 12:20 AM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #158

nwiswell wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. This is pretty much obvious just from the valuations. The wild bull case where they invent a revolutionary superintelligence would clearly value them in the trillions, so the fact that they're presently valued an order of magnitude less implies that it is viewed as an unlikely scenario (and reasonably so, in my opinion).

You don't need science fiction to find the bull case for OpenAI. You just have to think it stands to be the "next" Google, which feels increasingly plausible. Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions.

Post by staticman2 » Thu, Oct 03, 2024, 12:28 AM UTC

hall0ween wrote: post #268

staticman2 wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kagi uses Google as one of it's search provider, so is hardly competing with Google.

In terms of quality search results, kagi is ahead of google. Unless I misunderstand the situation, inferior search result are a natural product of google getting paid by advertisers rather than kagi getting paid by their users. Google won’t be able to get away from using their index to serve up adverts (rather than quality results).

Post by piyuv » Thu, Oct 03, 2024, 12:30 AM UTC

Rebuff5007 wrote: post #53

I for one can never get over the fact that Mira Murati was not laughed out of the room when she said -- with a straight face -- that GPT4 had high school level intelligence and the non-existent GPT5 will have PHD-level intelligence [1]. IMO -- this is not a serious company with serious people building an important long-lived product. This is a group of snake oil salesmen that are in the middle of the greatest grift o…

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Oct 03, 2024, 12:31 AM UTC

tptacek wrote: post #158

nwiswell wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> if they don't make the numbers make sense soon then I don't see things ending well for OpenAI. This is pretty much obvious just from the valuations. The wild bull case where they invent a revolutionary superintelligence would clearly value them in the trillions, so the fact that they're presently valued an order of magnitude less implies that it is viewed as an unlikely scenario (and reasonably so, in my opinion).

You don't need science fiction to find the bull case for OpenAI. You just have to think it stands to be the "next" Google, which feels increasingly plausible. Google's current market capitalization is in the trillions.

Post by NomDePlum » Thu, Oct 03, 2024, 12:37 AM UTC

plaidfuji wrote: post #249

paxys wrote: post #232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google is a digital advertising company. OpenAI hasn't even entered the ads business. In the absolute best case they can take over a large chunk of Google's search market share, sure, but that still doesn't make it anything similar to Google in terms of finances. How do they start making the queries profitable? What do they do when their competitors (Claude, Gemini, Llama, Mistral, Grok and several others) undercut t…

Google didn’t start as an ads company. It started as a blank text box that gave you a bunch of good answers from the internet in a list of links. Were there competitors that did the same thing? AltaVista? Yahoo? Did they undercut on cost? Google was free, I guess. But Google won because it maintained its quality, kept its interface clean and simple, and kept all the eyeballs as a result. Now Google is essentially the…