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Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

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Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#271

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

penjelly wrote: post #156
zeeZ wrote: post #7

> I assume it would have corrected itself eventually and gone back onto the main lane. > Another case where I’m sure it would have corrected itself eventually [...]. Why? That's some bold assumptions. If it's going to fail, let it (as long as it's safe and legal), and see what it actually does.

author pointed out that either way drivers behind him would've been very confused, so even if it DID correct, it still made mistakes that disrupted the flow of traffic.

So is FSD by the author and others being compared to perfect? Or is it compared to the worst drivers, average or best drivers?

If we wait for perfect it will never happen.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#272

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

ascorbic wrote: post #107
roenxi wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How many CEOs & owners have you vetted when making purchases? CEOs are a pretty shady crew as a class of people; it attracts people who like power and they are the dangerous ones. Or people who are single-minded in their focus and they tend to come with a raft of unusual views and personalities. And even after vetting, you're probably just biasing your purchases in favour of CEOs who do image management rather than p…

When I see a Tesla, I think of Elon. When I see another car I don't think of whoever the CEO is, because I don't know who that is. For better or worse, Tesla=Elon in most people's eyes. He had made himself the figurehead, and is an extremely divisive figure. I didn't like feeling that I was implicitly supporting him whenever I got into my car.

You could apply this same thought reasoning with the trolly problem.

You know one CEO but not the others. The others could be worse people overall but they choose to hide it. So you make a decision based off a known bias.

I don't think you're irrational for making this decision, it's just interesting. It's something I've never done.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#273

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

KaiserPro wrote: post #38
Onavo wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> TV said he was buying a Tony Stark car. Then TV revealed that Tony Stark was two Mussolinis in a trenchcoat. Car bad now Do you celebrate the moon landing? The US maintaining a constant lead in aerospace over the rest of the world? Those were built by the Mussolini supporters of the world. NASA and Saturn V would not have existed if not for the nice German folks who were recruited to work for Uncle Sam. Science and…

> Those were built by the Mussolini supporters of the world I mean that's a stretch. Were they designed by literal ex-nazis? yes. Crucially I don't remember von braun interceding in political discussions advocating for a position on anything other than space. But there are two points that stem from this: can a person change (for better or worse)? can the public at large reliably recognise that change?

Who cares what he puts on Twitter. IMO people are too obsessed over what people put on social media. Actions matter, words much much less (In this scope).

Judge people for what they do, not what they say (10000x on twitter).

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#274

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

KaiserPro wrote: post #32
gabesullice wrote: post #2

I find it difficult to take the technology review seriously with the off topic remarks and prefaces about Musk and Tesla at the beginning of the post.

I suspect its because having a personality lead company implies that people buying that product tend to agree with the personality. Tesla is an extreme example, Elon is either Jesus, or Judas. There is no in between. I have a Powerewall, because it was at the time the best product. When I do talk about it, the second or third question is: "what do you think of, you know, nod, nod, wink, wink". He's a polarising figur…

Would you still buy the Powerwall today?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#275

Post by llamaimperative »

bdangubic wrote: post #243
lagadu wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree that Tesla is nowhere close to having an actually autonomous driving system, I think that Tesla did invest more into research and probably collected more data than anyone else on the market. This amount of research has to have some results, even if they don't have a product yet.

safest bet you can make - no one old enough to have HN account today will live to see anything even closely resembling FSD

It already exists in Waymo. It obviously has a limited ODD but it absolutely works and easily passes “closely resembling FSD” for most real use cases (I.e. getting to work, school, and the store and back)

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#276

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

Vespasian wrote: post #202
guitarlimeo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find that apologetic behaviour strange too. You own a Tesla, it's a good car, no need to be sorry for its frontman. I mean I kinda get it? But everyone's doing it and it's weird. It's almost like writing a review of meat and apologizing for eating meat beforehand.

There is probably a reason why we hear very little about the political opinions of most Megacorp CEOs on a daily basis. I'm sure I would agree with some of them and disagree with others but they are smart enough to not make that a center piece of their public persona. Elon Musk decided on his own to a) be a central marketing and PR channel of Tesla. He has everyone convinced that the company cannot thrive otherwise.…

> Elon Musk decided on his own to

It's funny though because before Elon CEOs were hated just as much. Mostly because they are all bucketed together as too rich, too much control and not being as open in communication on decisions.

Now a new CEO disrupts (part of) that , and everyone hates him even more. Mostly because they just disagree with his comments.

It's very strange tbh. Should we be encouraging the transparency in CEO outspokenness regardless if you agree or not?

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#277

Post by ddalex »

ProxCoques wrote: post #170
rvnx wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And it sort of works in limited cases. FSD is like ChatGPT, it works in many cases, it does some mistakes, but it is certainly not “useless”. It won’t replace full time humans yet (the same way that ChatGPT does not replace a developer) but can still work in some scenarios. To the investor, ChatGPT is sold as “AGI is just round the corner”.

I think this is one of my fave FSD predictions: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tesla-driverless-cars... Oct 2014: "Five or six years from now we will be able to achieve true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination."

And waymo got there, in limited conditions

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#278

Post by forgot-im-old »

red75prime wrote: post #159
forgot-im-old wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not clear that a bunch of cascaded rectified linear functions will every generalize to near 100%. The error floor is at a dangerous level regardless of training. AGI is needed to tackle the final 1%>

The universal approximation theorem disagrees. The question is how large the network should be and how much training data it needs. And for now it can only be tested experimentally.

The universal approximation theorem does not apply once you include any realistic training algorithms / stochastic gradient descent. There isn't a learnability guarantee.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#279

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

light_hue_1 wrote: post #31
guitarlimeo wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I find that apologetic behaviour strange too. You own a Tesla, it's a good car, no need to be sorry for its frontman. I mean I kinda get it? But everyone's doing it and it's weird. It's almost like writing a review of meat and apologizing for eating meat beforehand.

It's because the brand is borderline toxic now. I've seen it firsthand living in a very liberal area. 3 years ago people loved the brand. People would strike up conversation about it. It was all upbeat, happy and hopeful. Now, people rarely talk about it. And when they do it's apologetically. It often ends with some down statement about politics. Someone saying there were no other choices. Just a crappy time. I love…

> very liberal area

This is the problem, people treat their political ideology like a sports team.

Re: Tesla's FSD – A Useless Technology Demo

#280

Post by throwaway7ahgb »

imtringued wrote: post #104
choeger wrote: post #42

What everyone seems to be ignoring when it comes to autonomous cars is that the last 1% or 0.1% or whatever remains unsolvable for "AI" might not really matter. We can change roads, ffs! At the bare minimum, we could fence off difficult areas and force manual driving. Once many people own an autonomous car, there will be pressure to make roads safe and convenient for them. Phantom braking for instance, is only a safe…

Every time I see someone start a new planned community I am wondering why they haven't designed it with autonomous vehicles in mind. You could get away with much simpler systems.

I would think the opposite... If I planned a community I would take 0 thoughts into self driving cars. I'd focus on making sure every single area can be reached via a walking/bike path.

Self driving will figure it out anyway (given enough time).

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